Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long-term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at \(0.10\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of \(1.2\,\hbox {Mm}^{3}\) per year and 2.56 \(\hbox {Mm}^{3},\) respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.     

Development of means and methods of drifter technology applied to the problem of the Black Sea research

During the last ten years, autonomous drifting platforms for data collection (drifters) equipped with Argos satellite communication devices have become one of the main components for the observation system in the upper layer of the ocean and surface atmosphere. This article presents the results of the Black Sea drifter monitoring in 2002–2006 within a number of international programs and projects. During this period, about 70 drifters manufactured by NPF Marlin-Yug Ltd. (Sevastopol, Ukraine) were deployed in the western part of the Black Sea. The drifters were mainly standard barometric Lagrangian tracers and a part of them were principally new temperature profiling buoys. Unique long-term data were obtained about the circulation of the surface currents and the dynamics of the temperature stratification within the seasonal thermocline and the cold intermediate layer.     

Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general circulation model. Part I: ENSO-like climate variability and its low-frequency modulation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in a multicentury integration conducted with the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM3/LSG. The quasiperiodic interannual oscillations of the simulated equatorial Pacific climate system are due to subsurface temperature anomaly propagation and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback. The gravest internal wave modes contribute to the generation of these anomalies. The simulated ENSO has a characteristic period of 5–8 years. Due to the coarse resolution of the ocean model the ENSO amplitude is underestimated by a factor of three as compared to observations. The model ENSO is associated with the typical atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using wavelet statistics two characteristic interdecadal modulations of the ENSO variance are identified. The origins of a 22 and 35?y ENSO modulation as well as the characteristic ENSO response to greenhouse warming simulated by our model are discussed.     

Defining dynamic pelagic habitats in oceanic waters off eastern Australia

Although many species in the pelagic ocean are widespread, they are not randomly distributed. These species may have associations with particular water masses or habitats, but to best understand patterns in the ocean, these habitats must be identified. Previous efforts have produced static or seasonal climatologies, which still represent smearing over habitats. The Eastern Tuna and Billfish Longline Fishery (ETBF) targets a range of high trophic level species in oceanic waters off eastern Australia. In this study, dynamic ocean habitats in the region were identified for each month based on cluster analysis of five oceanographic variables averaged at a monthly time scale and a spatial scale of 0.5° for the period 1995-2006. A total of seven persistent habitats were identified off eastern Australia with intra and interannual variation in size and location, indicating the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the dynamics of the region. The degree to which these dynamic habitats were distinguished was tested using (i) stable isotope analysis of top fish predators caught in the region and (ii) estimates of variation in estimated abundance generated from catch data from the fishery. More precise estimates (measured as lower total CV) of isotopic values from swordfish (Xiphias gladius), yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) were obtained for 4 of 6 isotope comparisons using the dynamic habitat groupings, which indicate that stratifying by pelagic habitat improved precision. Dynamic habitats produced more precise abundance estimates for 7 of 8 large pelagic species examined, with an average reduction in total CV of 19% compared to when abundance was estimated based on static habitat stratification. These findings could be used to guide development of effective monitoring strategies that can distinguish patterns due to environmental variation, and in the longer term, climate change.     

Cosmogenic radiocarbon as a means of studying solar activity in the past

A series of yearly data on the concentration of radioactive carbon ¹⁴C in tree rings measured at the Tbilisi State University in 1983–1986 and covering the time interval 1600–1940 is statistically analyzed. We find evidence for a 22-year cyclicity in the intensity of Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the Maunder minimum of the solar activity (1645–1715), testifying that the solar dynamo mechanism continued to operate during this epoch. Variations of Δ¹⁴C on timescales of tens and hundreds of years correlate well with the corresponding variations of the GCR intensity and solar activity, making radiocarbon a reliable source of information on long-timescale variations of solar activity in the past. Short-timescale (<30 years) fluctuations of Δ¹⁴C may be appreciably distorted by time variations not associated directly with solar activity; probable origins of this distortion are discussed.     

Peak response of 2-DOF uncoupled oscillator under two-directional base motion

This paper investigates the peak response of a 2-DOF uncoupled linear oscillator under arbitrarily oriented two-component horizontal earthquake motion. Input data consist of 22 two-component acceleration records from the magnitude 6.6, October 15, 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. One-directional response spectra for each principal direction of the oscillator, and two-directional response spectra (amplitude of the peak resultant response and its direction with respect to principal directions) are calculated by considering all angles of incidence of the excitation. The results indicate that, for oscillators that are not too flexible (i.e. with natural frequencies greater than 0.8 Hz), the two-directional peak response is controlled by the weaker direction of the oscillator. For flexible oscillators the two-directional peak response is controlled by the direction whose natural frequency is closer to dominant ground motion frequencies. The results also show that when the two-directional peak response is expressed as a weighted sum of one-directional peak responses, the weighting factors are not constants, but functions of oscillator and dominant ground motion frequencies.     

The chemical changes of DOM from black waters to coastal marine waters by HPLC combined with ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

How dissolved organic matter (DOM) undergoes chemical changes during its transit from river to ocean remains a challenge due to its complex structure. In this study, DOM along a river transect from black waters to marine waters is characterized using an offline combination of reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) coupled to electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICR-MS), as well as tandem ESI-FTICR-MS. In addition, a water extract from degraded wood that mainly consists of lignins is used for comparison to the DOM from this transect. The HPLC chromatograms of all DOM samples and the wood extract show two major well-separated components; one is hydrophilic and the other is hydrophobic, based on their elution order from the C₁₈ column. From the FTICR-MS analysis of the HPLC fractions, the hydrophilic components mainly contain low molecular weight compounds (less than 400 Da), while the hydrophobic fractions contain the vast majority of compounds of the bulk C₁₈ extracted DOM. The wood extract and the DOM samples from the transect of black waters to coastal marine waters show strikingly similar HPLC chromatograms, and the FTICR-MS analysis further indicates that a large fraction of molecular formulas from these samples are the same, existing as lignin-like compounds. Tandem mass spectrometry experiments show that several representative molecules from the lignin-like compounds have similar functional group losses and fragmentation patterns, consistent with modified lignin structural entities in the wood extract and these DOM samples. Taken together, these data suggest that lignin-derived compounds may survive the transit from the river to the coastal ocean and can accumulate there because of their refractory nature.     

Aklimaite, Ca4[Si2O5(OH)2](OH)4 · 5H2O, a new natural hydrosilicate from Mount Lakargi, the Northern Caucasus, Russia

A new mineral aklimaite, Ca₄[Si₂O₅(OH)₂](OH)₄ · 5H₂O, has been found near Mount Lakargi, Upper Chegem caldera, Kabardino-Balkaria, the Northern Caucasus, Russia, in the skarnified limestone xenolith in ignimbrite. This hydrothermal mineral occurs in a cavity of altered larnite skarn and is associated with larnite, calcium humite-group members, hydrogarnets, bultfonteinite, afwillite, and ettringite. Aklimaite forms transparent, colorless (or occasionally with pinkish tint) columnar or lath-shaped crystals up 3 × 0.1 × 0.01 mm in size, flattened on {001} and elongated along {010}; they are combined in spherulites. The luster is vitreous; the cleavage parallel to the {001} is perfect. D _calc = 2.274 g/cm³. The Mohs’ hardness is 3–4. Aklimaite is optically biaxial, negative, 2V _meas > 70°, 2V _calc = 78°, α = 1.548(2), β = 1.551(3), γ = 1.553(2). The IR and Raman spectra are given. The chemical composition (wt %, electron microprobe) is as follows: 0.06 Na₂O, 0.02 K₂O, 45.39 CaO, 0.01 MnO, 0.02 FeO, 24.23 SiO₂, 0.04 SO₃, 3.22 F, 27.40 H₂O_(calc.), ?1.36 -O=F₂; the total is 99.03. The empirical formula calculated on the basis of 2Si apfu with O + OH + F = 16 is as follows: (Ca_4.02Na_0.01)_Σ4.03[Si_2.00O_5.07(OH)_1.93][(OH)_3.16F_0.84] _Σ4.00 · 5H₂O. The mineral is monoclinic, space group C2/m, a = 16.907(5), b = 3.6528(8), c = 13.068(4) Å, β = 117.25(4)·, V= 717.5(4) ų, Z = 2. Aklimaite is representative of the new structural type, the sorosilicate with disilicate groups [Si₂O₅(OH)₂]. The strongest reflections in the X-ray powder patterns [d, Å (hkl)] are: 11.64(100)(001), 2.948(32)(310, 203), 3.073(20) ( $\bar 404$ , $\bar 311$ ), 2.320(12)(005, 510), 2.901 (11)(004), 8.30(10) $\left( {\bar 201} \right)$ . The type specimen is deposited in the Fersman Mineralogical Museum, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow.