On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Robertson-Walker Lyttleton-Bondi universe with cosmological constant

It is shown that contortion and gravity are not interacting in the lowest possible order. The most convenient pairs of materials in the new Eötvös' experiments are also proposed.     

Demonstration of sub-meter GPS orbit determination and 1.5 parts in 108 three-dimensional baseline accuracy

Differential tracking of theGPS satellites in high-earth orbit provides a powerful relative positioning capability, even when a relatively small continental U.S. fiducial tracking network is used with less than one-third of the fullGPS constellation. To demonstrate this capability, we have determined baselines of up to2000 km in North America by estimating high-accuracyGPS orbits and ground receiver positions simultaneously. The2000 km baselines agree with very long baseline interferometry(VLBI) solutions at the level of1.5 parts in10 ⁸ and showrms daily repeatability of0.3–2 parts in10 ⁸. The orbits determined for the most thoroughly trackedGPS satellites are accurate to better than1 m. GPS orbit accuracy was assessed from orbit predictions, comparisons with independent data sets, and the accuracy of the continental baselines determined along with the orbits. The bestGPS orbit strategies included data arcs of at least one week, process noise models for tropospheric fluctuations, estimation ofGPS solar pressure coefficients, and combined processing ofGPS carrier phase and pseudorange data. For data arcs of two weeks, constrained process noise models forGPS dynamic parameters significantly improved the solutions.     

Landscape planning in the Transcaucasia

We have developed the planning documents for model territories of a different dimension: the landscape program of Adzharia (Georgia), the landscape structure plan for the Lake Sevan watershed basin (Armenia), and the landscape plan for the Shirvan National Park (Azerbaijan). Variants of the solution of regional natural-ecological problems are proposed, and the measures for implementation of the target concepts are substantiated.     

Far field effects of Alpine plate tectonism in the Iberian microplate recorded by fault-related denudation in the Spanish Central System

Apatite fission track analysis was performed on 56 samples from central Spain to unravel the far field effects of the Alpine plate tectonic history of Iberia. The modelled thermal histories reveal complex cooling in the Cenozoic, indicative of intermittent denudation. Accelerated cooling events occurred across the Spanish Central System (SCS) from the Middle Eocene to Recent. These accelerated cooling events resulted in up to 2.8±0.9 km of denudation in the western Sierra de Gredos and 3.6±1.0 km in the central and eastern Gredos (assuming a paleogeothermal gradient of 28±5 °C and a surface temperature of 10 °C). The greatest amount of denudation (5.0±1.6 km) occurred in the Sierra de Guadarrama. Accompanying rock uplift was 4.7±1.0 and 5.9±1.6 km in the eastern Gredos and Guadarrama, respectively. Most denudation in the Gredos occurred from the Middle Eocene to the Early Miocene and can be related to the N–S stress field, induced by the Pyrenean compression. In the Guadarrama, the greatest denudation was Pliocene to Recent of age and seems related to the ongoing NW–SE Betic compression. The fact that the formation of the E–W trending Gredos coincides with the N–S Pyrenean compression and the creation of the present day morphology of the NE–SW trending Guadarrama with the younger NW–SE Betic compression, indicates that they record the far field effects of Alpine plate tectonics on Iberia. The trend of pre-existing lineaments was of major importance in influencing the style and magnitude of these of far field effects.     

Stratigraphic architecture of the fluvio-lacustrine deposits, Bathan Formation, Al-Rehaili area, North Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

A siliciclastic-dominated succession (～11 m thick) underlying Harrat Rahat, belonging to the Miocene–Pliocene Bathan Formation is recently exposed at Al-Rehaili area, North Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. It covers a wide spectrum of grain sizes varying from clay-rich mudstones to cobble grade conglomerate and consists of a variety of facies vary from fluvial to marginal and open lacustrine deposited in a half-graben basin formed along the eastern margin of the extensional Red Sea Basin. Field-based sedimentologic investigation enables to identify ten facies grouped into three facies associations (A–C). The depositional history is subdivided into two stages. The first stage represents deposition in gravel to sand-dominated fluvial system sourced from a southern source and grade northward into lacustrine delta and open lacustrine setting. The second stage on the other hand includes deposition of fluvial channels running in E–W direction with attached bank sand bar. Sequence stratigraphic interpretations of the lacustrine deposits enable to identify three unconformity-bounded sequences (SQ_1–3). The basal sequence is incomplete, consisting of three aggradationally to progradationally stacked delta plain and delta front parasequences. The second sequence is sharply and erosively overlying a red paleosol bed that defines the upper boundary of the first sequence. It includes two system tracts; upward-fining and deepening lacustrine offshore mudstones of the transgressive system tracts unconformably overlain by red paleosol of the regressive systems tracts. The top of this sequence is delineated at the sharp transgressive surface of erosion at the base of delta mouth bar deposits of sequence 3. Changes in the accommodation and sedimentation rates by basin subsidence under the influence of tectonics and sediment compaction and loading as well as climatic oscillation between semi-arid to arid conditions were the major controls on the fluvio-lacustrine sedimentation and their facies distribution. Tectonic reorganization of the drainage system resulted in the formation of E–W flowing fluvial streams in the second stage.     

Current trends in Great Lakes shipping

Shipping on the Great Lakes has changed rapidly in recent years. Internal Great Lakes traffic consists almost entirely of bulk movements, primarily of iron ore, coal, limestone, and grain. Ore shipments are mainly of taconite concentrate. Low-sulfur coal from the western areas of the United States is now moving downbound through the lakes, a movement in the opposite direction from the predominantly upbound movement of Appalachian coal. Opening of a larger lock in 1970 between lakes Superior and Huron has initiated a new generation of lake vessels, which are three times the size of the previous lake ships, and are too large to transit the Welland Canal and the St. Lawrence Seaway; for the first time since 1959 the largest “lakers” are land-locked. General cargo traffic between the Great Lakes and overseas has been declining rapidly since 1970, largely as the result of the rapid development of container ships, and the Interstate highway system, which increases the competitive advantages of salt-water ports.