Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.     

On the simulation of multidimensional cyclic loading with intergranular strain

A sample of soil is subjected to multidimensional cyclic loading when two or three principal components of the stress or strain tensor are simultaneously controlled to perform a repetitive path. These paths are very useful to evaluate the performance of models simulating cyclic loading. In this article, an extension of an existing constitutive model is proposed to capture the behavior of the soil under this type of loading. The reference model is based on the intergranular strain anisotropy concept and therefore incorporates an elastic locus in terms of a strain amplitude. In order to evaluate the model performance, a modified triaxial apparatus able to perform multidimensional cyclic loading has been used to conduct some experiments with a fine sand. Simulations of the extended model with multidimensional loading paths are carefully analyzed. Considering that many cycles are simulated (\(N>30\)), some additional simulations have been performed to quantify and analyze the artificial accumulation generated by the (hypo-)elastic component of the model. At the end, a simple boundary value problem with a cyclic loading as boundary condition is simulated to analyze the model response.     

Suprathermal ions in quiescent periods at 1 AU in the 23rd and 24th solar-activity cycles

The relative abundances of suprathermal (with energies ～0.04–2 MeV/nucleon) ³He, ⁴He, C, O, and Fe ions and the energy spectra of 3He and Fe ions in near-Earth space during quiescent periods of solar activity are studied. Measurements obtained with the ULEIS instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft during the 23rd and 24th solar cycles are used. Substantial differences in the energy spectra of suprathermal ions in the 23rd and 24th solar cycles are observed for the selected quiescent periods. Appreciable differences in the energy dependences of the relative ion abundances are also found. One possible explanation for the results obtained is that the background ions were accelerated to suprathrmal energies under different conditions in the solar corona in these two cycles.     

Electrical resistivity imaging of hydrologic flow through surface coal mine valley fills with comparison to other landforms

Surface coal mining has altered land cover, near‐surface geologic structure, and hydrologic processes of large areas in central Appalachia, USA. These alterations are associated with changes in water quality such as elevated total‐dissolved solids, which is usually measured via its surrogate, specific conductance (SC). The SC of valley fill effluent streams is a function of fill construction methods, materials, and age; yet hydrologic studies that relate these variables to water quality are sparse due to the difficulty of conducting traditional hydrologic studies in mined landscapes. We used electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) to visualize the subsurface geologic structure and hydrologic flow paths within a valley fill. ERI is a noninvasive geophysical technique that maps spatiotemporal changes in resistivity of the subsurface. We paired ERI with artificial rainfall experiments to track infiltrated water as it moved through the valley fill. Results indicate that ERI can be used to identify subsurface geologic structure and track advancing wetting fronts or preferential flow paths. Our results suggest that the upper portion of the fill contains significant fines, whereas the deeper profile is primarily large rocks and void spaces. Water tended to pond on the surface of compacted areas until it reached preferential flow paths, where it appeared to infiltrate quickly down to >15 m depth in 75 min. ERI applications can improve understanding of how fill construction techniques influence subsurface water movement, and in turn may aid in the development of valley fill construction methods to reduce water quality effects.     

A numerical method of viscoelastic finite element coupled with spring-block model to simulate the interaction of faults and crustal blocks

A numerical method of viscoelastic finite element coupled with spring-block model is developed to study temporal processes from the slow tectonic motion of large-scale crust to the rapid failure of small-scale faults. Our modeling demonstrates that the motion of crustal blocks is driven by forces from tectonic plate boundaries, and the deformation is distributed on faults for the stress accumulating. The coupling model generates earthquake sequences that display a magnitude-frequency scaling consistent with Gutenberg-Richter law. The frictional heterogeneities affeci earthquakes occurrence and stresses distribution of crustal blocks. Rupture of earthquakes starts at the nucleation node, and propagates bilaterally along faults with the stress triggering, release and redistribution. The failure of faults releases part of crustal stresses, the stress state of crustal blocks near fault is affected by the rupture of local segments on the fault, and the stress state of crustal blocks far away from the fault is controlled by the seismic activity of the whole fault.     

Fisheries mismanagement

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.     

ON THE IMPROVEMENT IN PENETRATIO ACHIEVED BY USING EXTENDED MARINE SOURCE ARRAYS*

In dealing with the problem of large amplitude multiple reflections arising from a hard water-bottom, it has been found that the use of extended source array techniques resulted in a considerably better penetration than that obtained using either computer simulated long arrays or the conventional air-gun array systems. The purpose of this paper is to use the concept of the array directivity factor in discussing the reason for the improvement in penetration achieved by using extended marine source arrays. Examples are given showing that the low frequency power radiated within the so called “penetration window” can be increased by a factor of two by choosing the correct spacing of the point sources forming the extended array. It is concluded that to ensure that most of the low frequency energy is concentrated within the penetration window to achieve deep penetration, a source array with spacing comparable with the wavelength is required.     

ON THE BREMMER SERIES DECOMPOSITION: EQUIVALENCE BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHES*

A Bremmer Series decomposition of the solution y(t) to the lossless wave equation in layered media is where the y_j(t) are physically meaningful constituents (i.e., y₁(t) are primaries, y₂(t) are secondaries, etc.). This paper reviews Mendel's state space models for generating the constituents; reviews Bremmer's integral equation models for generating the constituents; and demonstrates how Mendel's state space models can be obtained by a careful decomposition of Bremmer's integral equation models. It shows that Mendel's equations can be viewed as approximate numerical solutions of Bremmer's integral equations. In a lossless homogeneous medium, the approximations become exact.     

Estimating urban above ground biomass with multi-scale LiDAR

Background

Urban trees have long been valued for providing ecosystem services (mitigation of the “heat island” effect, suppression of air pollution, etc.); more recently the potential of urban forests to store significant above ground biomass (AGB) has also be recognised. However, urban areas pose particular challenges when assessing AGB due to plasticity of tree form, high species diversity as well as heterogeneous and complex land cover. Remote sensing, in particular light detection and ranging (LiDAR), provide a unique opportunity to assess urban AGB by directly measuring tree structure. In this study, terrestrial LiDAR measurements were used to derive new allometry for the London Borough of Camden, that incorporates the wide range of tree structures typical of an urban setting. Using a wall-to-wall airborne LiDAR dataset, individual trees were then identified across the Borough with a new individual tree detection (ITD) method. The new allometry was subsequently applied to the identified trees, generating a Borough-wide estimate of AGB.

Results

Camden has an estimated median AGB density of 51.6 Mg ha^–1 where maximum AGB density is found in pockets of woodland; terrestrial LiDAR-derived AGB estimates suggest these areas are comparable to temperate and tropical forest. Multiple linear regression of terrestrial LiDAR-derived maximum height and projected crown area explained 93% of variance in tree volume, highlighting the utility of these metrics to characterise diverse tree structure. Locally derived allometry provided accurate estimates of tree volume whereas a Borough-wide allometry tended to overestimate AGB in woodland areas. The new ITD method successfully identified individual trees; however, AGB was underestimated by ≤?25% when compared to terrestrial LiDAR, owing to the inability of ITD to resolve crown overlap. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis identified assigning wood density values as the largest source of uncertainty when estimating AGB.

Conclusion

Over the coming century global populations are predicted to become increasingly urbanised, leading to an unprecedented expansion of urban land cover. Urban areas will become more important as carbon sinks and effective tools to assess carbon densities in these areas are therefore required. Using multi-scale LiDAR presents an opportunity to achieve this, providing a spatially explicit map of urban forest structure and AGB.

     

Reliability level III method in design of square pillar resting on weak floor stratum

Summary Current methods of design of pillars resting on weak floor strata involve only a deterministic, conventional safety factor calculation, based on material parameters treated as the mean values taken from observations. In a case where high parameters variability occurs, these methods may lead to fatal design errors resulting in excessive pillar settlement and roof falls. Therefore, to include the influence of parameters quality, the new approach based on reliability level III method was developed. Consideration was given to the identification of the system parameters importance, and to density function for the safety factor treated as a random variable. Design procedure involving floor probability of failure was illustrated by numerical examples.