What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Evolution of cold shock-bounded slabs

The stability and evolution of cold, shock-bounded slabs is studied using numerical hydrodynamic simulations. We confirm the analysis of Vishniac (1994) [ApJ, 428, 186], who showed that such slabs are unstable if they are perturbed by a displacement larger than their width. The growth rate of this nonlinear thin shell instability (NTSI) is found to increase with decreasing wavelength, in qualitative agreement with Vishniac's analysis. The NTSI saturates when the bending angle becomes large and the growth in the width of the slab pinches off the perturbation. After saturation, the slab remains greatly extended with an average density much less than the original slab density, supported primarily by supersonic turbulence within the slab. Linear perturbations are also found to be unstable in that they can lead to turbulent flow within the slab, although this response to linear perturbations is distinct from, and much less violent than the NTSI.Richard McCray     

“BASS 300 PARACOM”: a “model” underwaterparametric communication system

Parametric transduction offers valuable advantages for underwater acoustic communications. Perhaps the most significant benefit is the fact that high directivity is achieved by means of a physically small transmit transducer. This feature may, ultimately, be employed to permit long-range, low-frequency communication using a compact source. The high directivity is desirable to combat multipath propagation and to achieve data communications in water which is shallow by comparison with range. A real-time, high data-rate “model” differential phase shift keying (DPSK) communication system has been constructed and demonstrated. This system uses parametric transduction, with a 300-kHz primary frequency and a 50-kHz secondary frequency. Experimental results show that the system can be employed to combat multipath propagation in shallow water and can achieve high data-rate text and color image transmission at 10 and 20 kb s^-1 for 2-DPSK and 4-DPSK, respectively, through a transmission bandwidth of 10 kHz. The “model” system was developed to confirm performance predictions for a future, operational long-range link employing a 50-kHz primary frequency and a 5-kHz secondary frequency     

measurement of noise power spectrum in photon counting PMT's and the effect of the observed (1/f) noise on astronomical photometry

In astronomical photometry, the sensitivity of observations is limited by the dark counts of the photomultiplier tube. In the present work, the effect of dark count noise in photon counting systems is investigated by theory and experimental measurements. Dark counts are considered to be originating from two sources, namely: dc fluctuations and random pulses.Experimental measurements were carried out to determine noise effects in different operating regions of noise dominance. The results provide strong evidence that: in normal operating mode, where the effect of random pulses is dominant, dark counts do not follow Poisson statistics. The observed noise shows strong (1/f) power spectrum, where the observed noise power is found to increase with time of observation.The results are important in photon counting systems operating under dark count limited mode. The conclusions drawn can be useful in obtaining more accurate error estimates and in assessing astronomical photometric observations and data reduction techniques.     

A measurement of the 362 GHz absorption line of Mars atmospheric H2O2

The 362.156 GHz absorption spectrum of H₂O₂ in the Mars atmosphere was observed on September 4 of 2003, employing the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) sub-millimeter facility on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. Radiative transfer analysis of this line absorption yields an average volume mixing ratio of 18±0.4 ppbv within the lower (0-30 km) Mars atmosphere, in general accordance with standard photochemical models (e.g., Nair et al., 1994, Icarus 111, 124-150). Our derived H₂O₂ abundance is roughly three times greater than the upper limit retrieved by Encrenaz et al. (2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1037-1044) from infrared spectroscopy, although part of this discrepancy may result from the different solar longitudes (L_s) of observation. Aphelion-to-perihelion thermal forcing of the global Mars hygropause generates substantial (>200%) increases in HO_x abundances above ∼10 km altitudes between the L_s=112° period of the Encrenaz et al. upper limit measurement and the current L_s=250° period of detection (Clancy and Nair, 1996, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 12785-12590). The observed H₂O₂ line absorption weakens arguments for non-standard homogeneous (Encrenaz et al., 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1037-1044) or heterogeneous (Krasnopolsky, 2003a, J. Geophys. Res. 108; 2003b, Icarus 165, 315-325) chemistry, which have been advocated partly on the basis of infrared (8 μm) non-detections for Mars H₂O₂. Observation of Mars H₂O₂ also represents the first measurement of a key catalytic specie in a planetary atmosphere other than our own.     

A reanalysis of the light curve of RT Persei with the W-D code

The UBV photometric observations of RT Per, from Sanwal and Chaubey (1981), were analyzed by the Wilson and Devinney code (1971). The light curves include reflection effects that for the first time has been suggested by Dugan (1911). RT Per has a semi-detached configuration where the lower-mass component is in contact with its respective Roche surface. The higher-mass component very nearly fills its Roche lobe. It has the characteristic of an Algol type system. The absolute dimensions for the primary and secondary of this system were calculated from its spectral types and by combining the photometric solution with inferred component radial velocities (Lu, 1990).     

On the stability of particular solutions of the singly averaged Hill problem

We consider the particular solutions of the evolutionary system of equations in elements that correspond to planar and spatial circular orbits of the singly averaged Hill problem. We analyze the stability of planar and spatial circular orbits to inclination and eccentricity, respectively. We construct the instability regions of both particular solutions in the plane of parameters of the problem.