Impacts of deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region as simulated by the MPI atmospheric GCM

For two reasons it is important to study the sensitivity of the global climate to changes in the vegetation cover over land. First, in the real world, changes in the vegetation cover may have regional and global implications. Second, in numerical simulations, the sensitivity of the simulated climate may depend on the specific parameterization schemes employed in the model and on the model's large-scale systematic errors. The Max-Planck-Institute's global general circulation model ECHAM4 has been used to study the sensitivity of the local and global climate during a full annual cycle to deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region. The deforestation represents an extreme desertification scenario for this region. The changes in the afforestation experiment are based on the pattern of the vegetation cover 2000 years before present when the climate in the Mediterranean was more humid. The comparison of the deforestation integration to the control shows a slight cooling at the surface and reduced precipitation during the summer as a result of less evapotranspiration of plants and less evaporation from the assumption of eroded soils. There is no significant signal during the winter season due to the stronger influence of the mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances. In general, the results of the afforestation experiment are opposite to those of the deforestation case. A significant response was found in the vicinity of grid points where the land surface characteristics were modified. The response in the Sahara in the afforestation experiment is in agreement with the results from other general circulation model studies.     

Analysing the interaction between emission trading and renewable electricity support in TIMES

As the number of instruments applied in the area of energy and climate policy is rising, the issue of policy interaction needs to be explored further. This article analyses the interdependencies between the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the German feed-in tariffs (FITs) for renewable electricity in a quantitative manner using a bottom-up energy system model. Flexible modelling approaches are presented for both instruments, with which all impacts on the energy system can be evaluated endogenously. It is shown that national climate policy measures can have an effect on the supranational emissions trading system by increasing emission reduction in the German electricity sector by up to 79 MtCO₂ in 2030. As a result, emission certificate prices decline by between 1.9 €/tCO₂ and 6.1 €/tCO₂ and the burden sharing between participating countries changes, but no additional emission reduction is achieved at the European level. This also implies, however, that the cost efficiency of such a cap-and-trade system is distorted, with additional costs of the FIT system of up to €320 billion compared with lower costs for ETS emission certificates of between €44 billion and €57 billion (cumulated over the period 2013–2020).

Policy relevance

In order to fulfil ambitious emission reduction targets a large variety of climate policy instruments are being implemented in Europe. While some, like the EU ETS, directly address CO₂ emissions, others aim to promote specific low-carbon technologies. The quantitative analysis of the interactions between the EU ETS and the German FIT scheme for renewable sources in electricity generation presented in this article helps to understand the importance of such interaction effects. Even though justifications can be found for the implementation of both types of instrument, the impact of the widespread use of support mechanisms for renewable electricity in Europe needs to be taken into account when fixing the reduction targets for the EU ETS in order to ensure a credible long-term investment signal.     

The water content of CM carbonaceous chondrite falls and finds,and their susceptibility to terrestrial contamination

CM carbonaceous chondrites can be used to constrain the abundance and H isotopic composition of water and OH in C-complex asteroids. Previous measurements of the water/OH content of the CMs are at the higher end of the compositional range of asteroids as determined by remote sensing. One possible explanation is that the indigenous water/OH content of meteorites has been overestimated due to contamination during their time on Earth. Here we have sought to better understand the magnitude and rate of terrestrial contamination through quantifying the concentration and H isotopic composition of telluric and indigenous water in CM falls by stepwise pyrolysis. These measurements have been integrated with published pyrolysis data from CM falls and finds. Once exposed to Earth's atmosphere CM falls are contaminated rapidly, with some acquiring weight percent concentrations of water within days. The amount of water added does not progressively increase with time because CM falls have a similar range of adsorbed water contents to finds. Instead, the petrologic types of CMs strongly influence the amount of terrestrial water that they can acquire. This relationship is probably controlled by mineralogical and/or petrophysical properties of the meteorites that affect their hygroscopicity. Irrespective of the quantity of water that a sample adsorbs or its terrestrial age, there is minimal exchange of H in indigenous phyllosilicates with the terrestrial environment. The falls and finds discussed here contain 1.9–10.5 wt% indigenous water (average 7.0 wt%) that is consistent with recent measurements of C-complex asteroids including Bennu.     

The contribution of rare species to coastal phytoplankton assemblages

Analysis of quantitative and qualitative composition of rare phytoplankton species was performed using a data set collected over a large geographic area (four eutrophic gulfs of the Aegean Sea, E. Mediterranean Sea) during 2002–2003. We examined the effects of excluding rare species on comparisons of species richness, diversity, similarity and niche breadth as well as the regional and seasonal contribution of rare species to cell abundance and carbon biomass. Overall, the total of 401 species included 182 rare species contributing 45.1% of the total species number. However, there was a considerable variation in this relationship among the other parameters, as rare species contributed only 6.4% of total cell abundance, 13.1% of total species diversity, 21.2% of total cell biovolume and 16.6% of total carbon biomass. The results showed that rarity may be a significant issue in studies detecting and quantifying phytoplankton community structure.     

Investigating the impact of initial soil moisture conditions on total infiltration by using an adapted double-ring infiltrometer

ABSTRACT

This study presents an adaptation of the double-ring infiltrometer (DRI) device, which allows several infiltration experiments to be conducted at the same location. Hence, it becomes possible to use the DRI method to investigate infiltration behaviour under different initial soil moisture conditions. The main feature is the splitting of the inner ring into two parts. While the lower part remains in the soil throughout the investigation period, the upper part is attached to the lower one just before the infiltration experiment. This method was applied to eight test sites in an Alpine catchment, covering different land-use/cover types. The results demonstrated the applicability of the adapted system and showed correlations between total water infiltration and initial soil moisture conditions on pastures, independent of the underlying soil type. In contrast, no correlation was found at forest sites or wetlands. Thus, the study emphasizes the importance of paying special attention to the impact of initial soil moisture conditions on the infiltration—and consequently the runoff behaviour—at managed areas. Given the differences in the total infiltrated water of between 30 and 1306 mm, consideration of the interplay between initial soil moisture conditions, land-use/cover type, and soil properties in rainfall–runoff models is a prerequisite to predict runoff production accurately.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Dynamic adjustment of training sets (‘moving-window’ reconstruction) by using transfer functions in paleolimnology—a new approach

This paper presents a new method (moving-windows) that optimizes diatom-based paleolimnological reconstructions of past environmental conditions from supra-regional training sets. The moving-window method identifies the best number of nearest neighbours (window size) from a merged supra-regional EDDI and local (MV) training set (n = 429) for each fossil diatom assemblage and the best type of transfer function (ML, WA-PLS) based on the error statistic of each transfer function (highest cross-validated R ², lowest cross-validated average bias, maximum bias and RMSEP). At first we evaluated the moving-window approach by comparing measured TP-values with inferred TP-values using both the moving-window approach and the WA-PLS method. The relative errors of the moving-window approach were not significantly different for 208 samples that had an error <15 μg/l TP using the WA-PLS method. However, for the remaining 221 samples with errors >>15 μg/l TP using the WA-PLS method, the moving window approach significantly reduced the relative error of the inferred TP levels. Secondly, the moving- window approach was used to reconstruct epilimnetic total phosphorous (TP) for Lake Dudinghausen, Lake Rugensee, Lake Tiefer See and Lake Drewitzer See (Northern Germany) using both the supra-regional EDDI training set and a local training set from Northern Germany (MV training set). The moving-window inferred TP-levels of the four study lakes were compared with published reconstructed TP-values and with inferred TP-values based on the local MV training set. Overall, the moving-window and the published TP-trends agree well with each other. However, the moving-window reconstructions generally indicated lower TP-levels throughout the past ∼5,000 to 12,000 years, including past maxima. Thus, the moving-window method seems to generate more realistic absolute TP levels due to the optimized window size (highest number of modern analogues, best error statistics). The identification of more realistic absolute historic TP-values is important for the validation of reference conditions for inland waters. This study also demonstrates that a robust local training set may, similar to moving-window training sets, also lead to reliable reconstructions, if the geological settings of the local training set lakes and the study lakes are similar.     

Vulnerability to epidemic malaria in the highlands of Lake Victoria basin: the role of climate change/variability, hydrology and socio-economic factors

Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria.     

Quantifying the error of 2D bulk chondrule analyses using a computer model to simulate chondrules (SIMCHON)

Bulk chondrule compositions are important to many questions in cosmochemistry, however, the number of available bulk chondrule data sets is still small. A main reason for this is the difficulties of determining bulk chondrule compositions. A commonly used technique is to obtain 2D bulk chondrule compositions from meteorite sections. This technique has an error that we quantify here for the first time using a mathematical model of a chondrule called SIMCHON. The theoretically calculated errors are compared to errors that we determined from serial sectioning of eight Efremovka chondrules. The errors obtained from both approaches are in excellent agreement, proving that our mathematical model produces reliable errors that can be assigned to 2D bulk chondrule compositions. These errors allow a much better interpretation of 2D bulk chondrule data. We provide a table that contains typical errors for 2D bulk compositions of porphyritic chondrules. The errors are in the range of ±<1–30 relative‐%. This should be acceptable for many problems in cosmochemistry. The effect of a chemical layering inside chondrules and the occurrence of a rim around them, as well as the occurrence of opaque and other accessory phases have been studied. A spreadsheet is provided that enables the calculation of errors for any desired chondrule mineral composition. BO chondrules have a negligible error, but it is impossible to provide reasonable error estimates for BO chondrules with an igneous rim. Radial pyroxene chondrules have negligible errors.