Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors

We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates ? 33.82 and ? 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P < 5% or P > 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions.     

洪泽湖出入河流及湖体氮、磷浓度时空变化(2010—2019年)

基于2010-2019年洪泽湖湖体水质逐月监测数据,筛选出影响湖体水质的主要污染物指标为总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）;选取洪泽湖周边25条主要入湖河流和2条出湖河流在2019年10月2020年9月的监测数据,探讨河流外源性输入对不同湖体区域氮磷的影响及其水期变化规律.结果发现：①湖体TN、TP浓度长期居高不下,年均浓度范围分别在1.39~1.86、0.080~0.171 mg/L波动.主要入湖河流TN、TP时空平均浓度（1.92~5.70和0.114~0.181 mg/L）,均高于同区域湖体（1.15~1.46和0.088~0.101 mg/L）,其中北部入湖河流肖河、马化河和五河与临近湖区TN、TP浓度呈现显著正相关,是影响北部湖体TN、TP浓度的主要河流;南部入湖河流维桥河和高桥河是临近湖区非极端降雨期TN、TP的主要来源.②调水工程对湖体及入湖河流TN、TP浓度分布影响显著,调水期湖体沿调水方向TP浓度逐渐上升,TN浓度则呈现先降后升的趋势,南部入湖河流维桥河和高桥河TN浓度达到水期峰值,分别为10.69和9.90 mg/L.③极端降雨期入湖河流的TN、TP浓度显著高于其它水期,由于湖体对TN、TP的富集作用不同,TP浓度呈现中间高,四周低,而TN浓度呈现沿洪水流向逐渐降低的规律.     

乌梁素海悬浮颗粒物和沉积物有机碳同位素特征及来源

悬浮颗粒物和沉积物是湖泊有机污染物的主要承载物质,其稳定同位素研究对有效识别有机质污染导致的湖泊富营养化具有重要意义.本研究选取乌梁素海为研究区,于2019年4月（融冰期）、7月（夏灌期）和10月（秋灌期）对湖区及入湖渠道的表层沉积物和悬浮颗粒物中有机碳的δ¹³C、C/N比及总有机碳（TOC、POC）和总氮（TON、PON）含量进行测定分析,联合采用δ¹³C、C/N及同位素多元混合模型研究湖泊有机碳来源及其贡献率.结果表明,乌梁素海悬浮颗粒物有机碳δ¹³C_POC的变化范围为-23.29‰~-29.75‰,呈现10月>4月>7月、入湖渠道>湖区的趋势,悬浮颗粒物POC/PON比变化范围为4.10~21.35,呈现出4月<7月<10月的时间变化,悬浮颗粒有机质主要来源于浮游植物（51.59%）、入湖渠道泥沙（34.60%）和大型水生植物（13.76%）.沉积物有机碳δ¹³C_TOC变化范围为-27.58‰~-22.68‰,呈现4月<10月<7月的变化,沉积物TOC/TON比变化范围为3.06~23.77,时空变化明显,沉积物有机质则主要源于入湖渠道挟带的泥沙,贡献达72.79%以上,而浮游植物与大型水生植物的贡献率相差较小,分别为11.85%和15.36%.本研究可以初步判定受入湖渠道影响的富营养化湖泊中悬浮颗粒物和沉积物有机碳来源,为改善湖泊有机污染和研究有机碳来源提供更多理解.     

Numeric modelling and risk assessment of pollutions in the Chinese Bohai Sea

To simulate the dynamic process of total nitrogen (TN) in seas, numerical modelling combined with the adjoint method is implemented in this study. Because nonpoint source terms (ST) and initial values (IV) of TN are essential but difficult to determine, the adjoint method was applied to a numerical model, and the ST and IV terms of TN were inverted via routine monitoring data in the Bohai Sea. In twin experiments, the adjoint method was capable of inverting the prescribed spatio-temporally distributed ST and the spatial distributed IV. In practical experiments, the results demonstrated that the simulation precision with ST inversion was higher than that with IV inversion and was accurate with joint initial values and source term (IST) inversion. This result indicates that nonpoint source TN is essential for the simulation of TN concentration. Furthermore, the simulated results indicate that the pollution in three bays of the Bohai Sea is rather severe. The model in this study is not specific to the Bohai Sea and can be generalized to other areas, such as the Beibu Gulf. These findings may assist in the development of cost-effective controls for accidental or planned industrial pollutant releases into coastal waters.     

基于遥感反射率的太湖优势藻识别方法

我国淡水湖库频发水华,不同类群形成的水华特征、危害及其治理方法差异显著,因此,如何区分不同藻种的遥感反射率特征,获取湖泊优势种信息是一个亟待解决的科学问题。研究基于室内藻种培养实验,培养了富营养化湖泊中的典型蓝藻和绿藻藻种,其中,蓝藻包括铜绿微囊藻（Microcystis aeruginosa）、假鱼腥藻（Pseudanabaenasp．）和束丝藻（Aphanizomenonsp．）,绿藻包括小球藻（Chlorellasp．）以及四尾栅藻（Scenedesmus quadricauda）;基于实测的遥感反射率,经归一化处理后,分析了不同藻种的遥感反射率特征,构建了DI(difference index)指数以及ADI(algae distinguish index)指数,建立了藻种分类模型,利用验证集数据进行检验,整体识别精度达77.55%,Kappa系数为0.7178。将分类方法应用于太湖野外实测遥感反射率数据集中,结果与实测的生物量数据有较好的匹配;将模型应用于太湖OLCI(ocean and land colour instrument)影像数据,获得了2019年12月和2020...     

邢台地区设定地震事件烈度影响

通过邢台地区历史地震烈度资料分析,得到该地区烈度—频率灾害曲线及地震风险。以地震地质资料理论为基础,结合河北省城市活断层探测成果、地壳结构等资料,确定2个设定地震事件。采用复合震源模型,模拟合成强地面运动,并基于强地面运动模拟结果,分析邢台地区地震影响烈度,为今后该地区建筑物抗震设防、避难场所选址、震后救援以及地震保险风险评估提供参考依据。     

浙江省地震观测台站综合防雷系统升级

以2014年浙江省地震局5个地震台站进行综合防雷系统升级改造为例,阐述浙江省数字观测台站雷击隐患,从配电系统、接地系统、通信系统和综合布线等方面出发,结合台站实际情况,对地质环境特殊的台站进行针对性防护,总结此次防雷系统改造的实际效果,分析不足之处,提出后续改造建议。     

POISSON'S RATIO VARIATIONS OF CRUSTAL MEDIA BEFORE AND AFTER XINYUAN-HEJING MS6.6 EARTHQUAKE IN 2012

We analyzed the variation characteristics of Poisson's ratio in crustal media from January 2009 to December 2012 at 11 fixed seismic stations(for station SCH, it is from January 2006 to December 2012)within an epicenter distance of 200km of the Xinyuan-Hejing M_S6.6 earthquake in Xinjiang on June 30, 2012 using the methods of P wave receiver functions, H-κ stacking of receiver functions, and time sliding window, and obtained the following conclusions: (1)The crustal media's Poisson ratio of five stations in an epicenter distance less than 130km showed a significant and long-lasting decline about 2~3 years before Xinyuan-Hejing M_S6.6 earthquake. Taking the crustal Poisson ratio mean value as reference, the decrease ranges between 0.003 and 0.014, the decrease in 4 stations are more than twice the mean error. The variations of the Poisson's ratio in crust are characterized by "V" shape or "double V" shape. Earthquakes occur at the end of the formation of "V" shape. After the occurrence of earthquakes, the Poisson's ratio continues to rise. The earliest initial fall appeared in July 2009 at WUS station which has the minimum epicentral distance(77km). The Poisson ratio of the crustal media of 6 stations with epicentral distance more than 150km fluctuated up and down around the mean value, and there is no significant decline or persistent low value. (2)We analyzed the arrival-time variations of the quasi-repetitive receiver functions Ps converted wave(t_Ps)of the 3 stations WUS, SCH and XNY and found that the travel times of Ps converted waves became smaller in the crust before the earthquake and increased after the earthquake. (3)Through the comprehensive analysis on the descending process, decline ranges, variations process, duration of Poisson' ratio, the Ps converted waves arrival time variations, the original time of earthquake, and the number of stations, it is inferred that the cause for Poisson's ratio anomalous variations is the change of physical properties of crustal media in the process of earthquake preparation and occurrence. Since the variation characteristics of crustal media may be related to the earthquake magnitude, the size of seismogenic area, the medium properties under stations, and the focal distance, whether the medium variation characteristics exist before and after Xinyuan-Hejing M_S6.6 earthquake will need more earthquake cases analyses. (4)The H-κ stacking of receiver functions is used to calculate the velocity ratio. Because P-wave velocity is given, this method can only be applied when the Ps converted wave velocity of Moho surface of receiver functions changes before an earthquake. With the application of receiver functions to the analysis of more earthquake cases, we can gain more insights into the variation of crustal medium parameters during the seismogenic process. This observation indicates that the receiver function method may become a new approach to detect the Poisson's ratio change of the crustal media before strong earthquake under the condition of high seismic network density.     

Assessing flood risk in Baiyangdian Lake area in a changing climate using an integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

ABSTRACT

Flood-risk is affected by both climatic and anthropogenic factors. In this study, we assess changes in flood risk induced by a combination of climate change and flood prevention sets in the Baiyangdian (BYD) Lake area of China. Extreme storm events are analysed by the bias-corrected climate data from global climate models. A hydrological model is implemented and integrated with a hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk under three scenarios. The streamflow into the BYD was validated against historical flash-flood events. The results indicate that the changing climate increased extreme precipitation, upstream total inflow and the flood risk at the core region of Xiong’an New Area (XNA), the newly announced special economic zone in the BYD area. However, flood prevention measures can effectively mitigate the climatic effect. The research highlights the severe flash-flood risk at BYD and demonstrates the urgent need for a climate-resilient plan for XNA.