不同犯罪类型受害者报警行为特点及其影响因素分析

采用问卷调查数据,以理性选择理论为框架,对广州地区扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害四大犯罪类型受害者的报警行为进行了分析。研究发现,扒窃和诈骗的发生率较高,但报警率较低;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的发生率较低,但报警率较高。逻辑回归结果表明,损失的财产价值是影响扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害受害者报警行为的共同因素,损失越大,报警的可能性越大。此外,户口状态对扒窃报警行为有影响;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的报警行为还受个人客观属性和主观感知的影响。表明西方的理性选择理论框架适用于中国的报警率研究,但在选择具体的衡量指标时应更慎重;在对用公安部门的数据进行犯罪空间分析时,应注意报警率的影响。     

犯罪共生空间的类型识别及其特征分析

以ZG市公共空间盗窃、入室盗窃、寻衅滋事、接触诈骗、抢劫抢夺犯罪为研究对象,采用K均值聚类法识别不同类型的犯罪共生空间;并通过决策树模型分析了不同犯罪共生空间的特征。结果表明,ZG市犯罪共生空间可划分为4种类型：① 无犯罪类型共生区;② 公共空间盗窃和接触诈骗犯罪共生区;③ 所有类型犯罪共生区;④ 入室盗窃、寻衅滋事和抢劫抢夺犯罪共生区。城市中各异的社会环境和建成环境产生了不同类型的犯罪机会,而且各类社会环境和建成环境之间存在着条件交互性作用。研究结果为制定犯罪的联合防控策略和实现有限警力的合理布控并且提高执法效率提供了理论基础。     

地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究进展

犯罪地理学以社会问题为导向,关注犯罪现象的格局、过程与机理,沿着“揭示问题、服务安全、解决问题”的思路,去破解复杂的社会难题,并在公共安全和犯罪防控领域贡献力量。本文基于地理学视角,从犯罪出行、犯罪空间决策、重复犯罪三大研究主题出发,综述了国内外犯罪者行为的研究进展。结果表明,国外研究取得了较多成果,如：①犯罪出行方面发现了就近掠夺和外出犯罪的空间模式;不同犯罪类型的出行距离存在显著差异;以及犯罪出行距离受犯罪者个体特征、地理特征、犯罪收益和情感因素的影响。②犯罪空间决策受经济因素、社会因素以及犯罪者空间意识的影响。③重复犯罪存在时空聚集性和时空临近性。国内研究主要集中在国外理论与经验引介,犯罪时空分布、形成机理与空间防控,以及犯罪模拟与预测方面,而地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究尚处于初始阶段,有许多空白亟需填补。总体而言,在犯罪者研究领域,仍存在以下3点不足：①在犯罪出行方面,综合的视角不多;②在犯罪空间决策方面,尚未涉及犯罪空间决策的时间差异及形成机制;③在重复犯罪方面,尚未考虑过去的犯罪活动和经验。最后,论文从视角、内容、方法及应用上提出未来的研究重点：注重综合性视角的实证分析;开展针对犯罪团伙的研究;合理利用大数据分析犯罪者行为的规律、过程和机理,避免导致推理错误;注重理论研究成果的转化,满足国家社会治安的重大需求,并提升犯罪地理学的学科价值。     

Italian strong motion database relative to the period 1972–2004: motivations and aims

The Italian Accelerometic Archive (ITACA) was created in 2007 during a joint project between the Italian Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV) and the Italian Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, DPC). The project, started in 2006, had the aim of filling the data gap of existing strong motion databases and facilitating strong motion data users in obtaining good quality waveforms, through the collection, homogenization and distribution of strong motion data acquired during the period 1972–2004 in Italy by different institutions (Ente Nazionale per l’Energia Elettrica, ENEL, Italian electricity company; Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente, ENEA, Italian energy and environment organization DPC). The compiled database contains 2,182 three-component waveforms generated by 1,008 earthquakes with a maximum moment magnitude of 6.9 (1980 Irpinia earthquake) and can be accessed on-line at the portal denominated ITACA at the site , where a wide range of search tools enables the user to interactively retrieve events, recording stations and waveforms with particular characteristics, whose parameters can be specified, as needed, through user friendly interfaces. A range of display options allows users to view data in different contexts, extract and download time series and spectral data. This article describes the state of the art up to 2006 and the activities which led to the completion of the project.     

四川多旋回叠合盆地的形成与演化

四川盆地是典型的经历了多期构造演化过程的克拉通盆地,在其多套沉积层序中富含天然气,天然气的开发利用历史悠久.近年来连续发现了普光、龙岗、合川、新场、九龙山和元坝等多个大气田.揭示四川盆地的形成演化过程,不仅为探讨克拉通盆地的成因机制奠立重要基础,而且为探索强烈构造活动环境之下油气有效聚集与保存机制提供重要线索.本文利用...     

Identification of accelerometric stations in ITACA with distinctive features in their seismic response

In this work, we analyze the records of the Italian strong motion database (ITACA, ) with the aim of identifying stations affected by site effects that are not captured by standard seismic classification schemes. In particular, we consider four different site classifications, two of them based on geological/geophysical characteristics and two driven by data. For each classification we develop a ground motion prediction equation using a random effect approach to isolate the between-station and within-station distribution of errors. The site coefficients obtained for the different classes confirm that site amplification effects are significant for both the horizontal and vertical components. The between-station error normalized to the standard deviation of the between-station error distribution is then used to identify stations characterized by large errors, attributable to site effects not accounted for by the classification schemes. The results show that large errors can affect the predictions when the site effects are not uniquely related to the reduction of the seismic impedance in the uppermost layers. For example, amplifications of ground motion over the long period range are observed for stations installed within alluvial closed-shape basins, as consequence of locally generated surface waves. For these stations, classifications based on the horizontal to vertical response spectra ratio are not reliable, since amplifications are also affecting the vertical component. Another interesting feature which emerges from the analysis is the significant de-amplification of short period spectral ordinates that seems to be related to stations typically set in at the foundation level of massive structures. To increase the usefulness of the data set, the most important distinctive features of the strong motion stations are documented in the ITACA database reports containing the instrument information and the available geological-geotechnical data.     

Site effects observed in alluvial basins: the case of Norcia (Central Italy)

In this work, we investigate the site amplification effects observed in the Norcia plain, Central Italy. Data from 30 selected local earthquakes (2 ≤ Ml ≤ 4.1) recorded by a temporary seismic network composed by 15 stations, are analyzed to determine the spatial variability of site effects. Both the Horizontal-to-Vertical spectral ratio and the Standard Spectral Ratio techniques are applied to estimate the site amplification effects. The results show that most of the sites in the valley are affected by strong amplifications (up to a factor of 20) in the frequency range 0.5–5 Hz. The value of the fundamental frequency of resonance is strictly dependent on the location within the basin and on the sediment thickness. Strong amplifications also affect the vertical components. The time-frequency analysis performed on a station located inside the basin shows the presence of a large spectral amplitudes after the S-wave phase, not observed on a station located on the bedrock, suggesting the presence of locally generated wave trains. Then, in agreement with earlier observations for other alluvial basins in Central Italy, 2D–3D effects play an important role in determining the site amplification effects in Norcia.     

Frequency variation in site response as observed from strong motion data of the L��Aquila (2009) seismic sequence

Previous works based mainly on strong-motion recordings of large Japanese earthquakes showed that site amplification and soil fundamental frequency could vary over long and short time scales. These phenomena were attributed to non-linear soil behaviour: the starting fundamental frequency and amplification were both instantaneously decreasing and then recovering for a time varying from few seconds to several months. The recent April 6, 2009 earthquake (M _W 6.3), occurred in the L’Aquila district (central Italy), gave us the possibility to test hypotheses on time variation of amplification function and soil fundamental frequency, thanks to the recordings provided by a pre-existing strong-motion array and by a large number of temporary stations. We investigated the intra- and inter-event soil frequency variations through different spectral analyses, including time-frequency spectral ratios and S-Transform (Stockwell et al. in IEEE Trans Signal Process 44:998–1001, 1996). Finally, analyses on noise recordings were performed, in order to study the soil behaviour in linear conditions. The results provided puzzling evidences. Concerning the long time scale, little variation was observed at the permanent stations of the Aterno Valley array. As for the short time-scale variation, the evidence was often contrasting, with some station showing a time-varying behavior, while others did not change their frequency with respect to the one evaluated from noise measurements. Even when a time-varying fundamental frequency was observed, it was difficult to attribute it to a classical, softening non-linear behaviour. Even for the strongest recorded shocks, with peak ground acceleration reaching 0.7 g, variations in frequency and amplitude seems not relevant from building design standpoint. The only exception seems to be the site named AQV, where the analyses evidence a fundamental frequency of the soil shifting from 3 Hz to about 1.5 Hz during the mainshock.