Probability distributions for carbon emissions and atmospheric response

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO₂, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO₂ is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.     

都安一次特大暴雨过程卫星和雷达图像特征分析

利用彩色增强显示的卫星云图、雷达和自动气象站资料对2010年5月31日22时至6月1日11时都安县出现的特大暴雨进行分析,发现这次暴雨过程由2个强降雨阶段组成,造成都安县特大暴雨的原因是1个形成于滇黔桂交界处的低涡在南移过程中,低涡东边缘对流强烈发展,对流云团主体移过都安而产生了强降雨,对应着这2个强降雨阶段,在卫星云图上分析出是由2个对流云团前后移过所造成的,在雷达回波图上可分析出对流云团中又先后有多个对流单体移过都安县上空,所以造成了这次特大暴雨过程     

岑溪50a气温及降水变化特征分析

利用岑溪地面气象观测站1959～2008年的气温和降水资料,对岑溪50a的气候变化做分析。结果表明:50a岑溪气温整体呈上升趋势(0.148℃/10a),特别是90年代以后增温十分明显。以80年代中期为界将岑溪50a的气候分为冷、暖两个阶段,80年代中期之前为冷期,之后为暖期。降雨量整体呈下降趋势(-15.07mm/10a),50a岑溪存在一个雨量充沛期和两个雨量偏少期,2004年以后雨量进入振荡期。     

Chemical characteristics of wet precipitation at an urban site of Guangzhou, South China

The pH variation and chemical characteristics of rainwater were investigated from January 2006 to December 2006 at an urban site of Guangzhou, South China. The rainwater was typically acidic with a volume-weighted mean pH value of 4.49, which ranged from 3.52 to 6.28. The volume-weighted mean equivalent concentration of components followed the order: SO₄²⁻ > Ca²⁺ > Cl⁻ > NH₄⁺ > Na⁺ > NO₃⁻ > K⁺ > Mg²⁺ > F⁻, indicating that SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻ and NO₃⁻ were the main anions, while Ca²⁺ and NH₄⁺, were the main cations. Ca²⁺ and NH₄⁺ were major neutralization constituents of the precipitation. Furthermore, correlation analysis and principal component analysis method were performed to identify possible common sources of major ions. Sources of the major ions were assessed based on enrichment factor method.     

拉萨春季一次雷暴天气过程分析

利用拉萨多普勒天气雷达、闪电定位仪、欧洲中心500hPa分析场及常规观测等资料,对2008年4月27-28日发生在拉萨的雷暴天气的环境条件和雷达回波特征进行了综合分析.结果表明:这次雷暴过程是在乌拉尔山冷空气南下,加剧了高原低涡切变辐合上升运动的发展,大气层结极不稳定的条件下产生的;雷达径向速度图和VAD风廓线均显示出非常明显的低层暖平流结构、低空急流及垂直风切变特征;γ中尺度气旋式涡旋扰动与环境垂直风切变的相互作用,导致雷暴云发展,回波顶增高,40dBz回波顶高伸展到7.0km左右;CAPE值、垂直风切变、γ中尺度气旋性扰动以及低层暖平流对拉萨雷暴天气预警、预报具有指示意义,给出了拉萨雷暴天气预报思路与着眼点.     

广西前汛期锋前暖区暴雨过程的模拟与分析

利用中尺度数值模式MM5对2005年5月8-9日广西的暖区暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,并对暖区暴雨形成和发展的机制进行了分析研究.结果表明:高空急流稳定维持与低空急流持续加强是这次暖区暴雨发生发展的动力机制;在暖区暴雨形成与发展的过程中,低空各层自上而下均有急流核向东传播的现象;低空急流核以接力振荡的形式快速东传,而不是向北面的锋区运动,有利于暖区累积充沛的水汽和不稳定能量,造成不稳定能量和水汽在锋区和暖区的不均匀分布,也有利于有组织的对流活动在暖区反复生成和发展,从而导致了暖区不仅降雨量大,而且雨强比锋区降水强.     

N■no综合区对研究ENSO的效果评估

通过生成一个新的Ni(n)o1-4综合区,并以它的SSTA来确定El Ni(n)o事件.经过数据对比处理和指数相关分析后,论证了合成区的合理和可行性.     

非开挖管理软件的设计与开发

利用VisualBasic 6．0语言开发非开挖管理软件,选择Microsoft Office Access 2000作为软件的数据库系统。该软件从公司领导层到公司各部门到作业班组,按照管理需求对非开挖工程数据资料的操作流程进行切合实际的逻辑设计,形成施工主体技术参数、相关辅助信息和人力、物力、财力数据的有机综合管理系统。而且可以直接从窗体输入数据资料,相应的输出Excel、Word形式的数据资料,方便了工程进展情况的查看和资料的整理。软件中根据非开挖工程的要求,相对应的窗体之间创建了关联。软件可以在Windows 9X操作平台下运行,具有窗体友好、操作方便、运行可靠稳定等优点。     

Relationships between carbon isotope evolution and variation of microbes during the Permian–Triassic transition at Meishan Section, South China

This paper investigates kerogen carbon isotopes, the difference between carbonate and kerogen carbon isotopes (Δ¹³C_carb-kero = δ ¹³C_carb − δ ¹³C_kero) and the difference between carbonate and n-C₁₉ alkane compound-specific carbon isotopes (Δ¹³C_carb-n-C19 = δ ¹³C_carb − δ ¹³C _n-C19) during the Permian–Triassic transition at Meishan, South China. The results show that kerogen carbon isotopes underwent both gradual and sharp shifts in beds 23–25 and 26–29, respectively. The differences between carbonate and organic carbon isotopes, both the Δ¹³C_carb-kero and Δ¹³C_carb-n-C19, which are mainly affected by CO₂-fixing enzyme and pCO₂, oscillated frequently during the Permian–Triassic transition. Both the variations of Δ¹³C_carb-n-C19 and Δ¹³C_carb-kero coupled with the alternation between cyanobacteria and green sulfur bacteria indicated by biomarkers. The episodic low values of Δ¹³C_carb-n-C19 corresponded to episodic blooms of green sulfur bacteria, while the episodic high values of Δ¹³C_carb-n-C19 corresponded to episodic blooms of cyanobacteria. The relationships between the variation of carbon isotopes and biota show that the microbes which flourished after the extinction of macroorganism affected the carbon isotope fractionation greatly. Combining the carbon isotope compositions and the pattern of size variation of the conodont Neogondolella, this paper supposes that anoxia of the photic zone at bed 24 was episodic and it would be caused by the degradation of terrigenous organic matters by sulfate reducing bacteria in the upper water column. Considered together with results from previous research, the high resolution variation of the biogeochemistry presents the sequence of the important geo-events during the Permian–Triassic crisis.