印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游夏季降水的相关分析

一、前言 长江中下游地域广阔,位置重要,该区夏季降水的异常变化,涉及千百万人的生命财产和经济建设。因此,此区夏季降水预报,尤其是旱涝的长期预报,历来是人们重视的问题。近几十年来,随着海洋观测资料的增加和计算技术的发展,海洋和大气相互作用,在长期预报中已越来越为人们所重视。我国许多气象工作者也积极开展了太平洋地区海气     

双流机场低能见度天气预报方法研究

在信息量较大, 而预报对象与预报因子的关系又不清楚的状况下, 智能机器学习方法是解决这类问题的较好手段。利用1997—2001年成都站的常规探空资料和双流机场的地面观测资料, 使用支持向量机 (Support Vector Machines, 简称SVM) 方法, 选取多种核函数进行双流机场低能见度天气的预报建模试验。测试结果表明:以径向基函数和拉普拉斯函数构造的SVM预报模型实验效果最好, Ts评分分别为0.287和0.292, 远高于双流机场低能见度天气出现的频率 (0.155)。试验结果还表明:以径向基函数构造的SVM预报模型空报较多, 漏报较少; 而以拉普拉斯函数构造的SVM预报模型空报较少, 漏报较多。因此, 如果强调模型对低能见度天气预报的准确性, 则应采用以拉普拉斯函数构造的预报模型, 如果强调对低能见度天气的预防性, 则应采用以径向基函数构造的预报模型。     

陕南铁船山岩体的地球化学特征、成因及其形成的构造环境

扬子克拉通北缘的铁船山岩体形成于新元古代，其岩石类型为霓石－钠铁门石花岗岩，岩石富碱质、Ｓｔ、Ｆｅ、ＲＥＥ和高场强元素，而贫Ａｌ、Ｃａ、Ｍｇ、Ｓｒ、Ｂａ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ等组分，δＥｕ＝０．２０，Ａ／ＫＮＣ＝０．８５，Ｋ２Ｏ＋Ｎａ２Ｏ／Ａｌ２Ｏ３＝１．０９，Ａ·Ｒ＝９．２８，岩石属典型的Ａ型花岗岩，Ｎｄ、Ｓｒ和Ｏ同位素示踪反映其成岩物质来自于壳幔混合源区。根据区域地质背景的综合分析，岩体形成于活动陆缘的张裂构造环境，属活动板块边缘拉张型花岗岩。     

Ablation Characteristic of Ilmenite using UV Nanosecond and Femtosecond Lasers: Implications for Non‐Matrix‐Matched Quantification

Ilmenite (FeTiO₃) is a common accessory mineral and has been used as a powerful petrogenetic indicator in many geological settings. Elemental fractionation and matrix effects in ilmenite (CRN63E‐K) and silicate glass (NIST SRM 610) were investigated using 193 nm ArF excimer nanosecond (ns) laser and 257 nm femtosecond (fs) laser ablation systems coupled to an inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometer. The concentration‐normalised ⁵⁷Fe and ⁴⁹Ti responses in ilmenite were higher than those in NIST SRM 610 by a factor of 1.8 using fs‐LA. Compared with the 193 nm excimer laser, smaller elemental fractionation was observed using the 257 nm fs laser. When using 193 nm excimer laser ablation, the selected range of the laser energy density had a significant effect on the elemental fractionation in ilmenite. Scanning electron microscopy images of ablation craters and the morphologies of the deposited aerosol materials showed more melting effects and an enlarged particle deposition area around the ablation site of the ns‐LA‐generated crater when compared with those using fs‐LA. The ejected material around the ns crater predominantly consisted of large droplets of resolidified molten material; however, the ejected material around the fs crater consisted of agglomerates of fine particles with ‘rough' shapes. These observations are a result of the different ablation mechanisms for ns‐ and fs‐LAs. Non‐matrix‐matched calibration was applied for the analysis of ilmenite samples using NIST SRM 610 as a reference material for both 193 nm excimer LA‐ICP‐MS and fs‐LA‐ICP‐MS. Similar analytical results for most elements in ilmenite samples were obtained using both 193 nm excimer LA‐ICP‐MS at a high laser energy density of 12.7 J cm^?2 and fs‐LA‐ICP‐MS.     

四川那朗地区多金属矿化地质及激电特征

四川那朗地区地处三江成矿带,区内出露三叠系灰岩、板岩及火山岩,有闪长岩岩株侵入其中,地表见铁帽。岩体蚀变分带明显。通过激发极化法工作,由视极化率处理后异常显示,原始数据圈出了激电异常,推测为铁帽下部之矿（化）致异常。     

北半球500百帕极地环流与厄尔尼诺、南方涛动及我国气温场的遥相关

本文用1951—1984年的资料对500百帕、65°N以北的高度场作自然正交展开,用模糊聚类对典型场归类。指出,极涡月平均场有三种形态,1月份平均场形态较特殊;大尺度距平场也有三种形态,4月份距平场形态较特殊。此外,研究了典型场的时间权重系数与厄尔尼诺、南方涛动的关系。指出,厄尔尼诺现象发生的当年4月、10月极地大尺度距平场有明显的异常特征。这种极地环流异常已明显影响到我国4月份、10月份的气温场。因而,可能是厄尔尼诺年我国气温4月偏低、10月偏高的一个重要原因。     

中国西部积雪对我国汛期降水的影响

本文利用台站及卫星资料建立了中国西部积雪３０年逐月时间序列。该序列是目前资料时间最长、最好的序列，为研究该区积雪月际和年际变化及其影响提供了较可靠的依据。中国西部冬春积雪对我国汛期降水的影响平均为负相关趋势，与６月降水的相关分布较有规律，冬春多（少），其它地区６月降水偏多（少）。我国西部多（少）雪对６月从份５００ｈＰａ高度的变化是：高原北边高纬高度降低（升高）及副热地区升高（降低），有（不）利于高     

一次华北暴雨过程的数值模拟及水汽螺旋度和水汽涡度收支应用分析

运用WRF模式对2009年8月发生在华北地区的一次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,按照性质的不同对模拟降水进行了研究,还进行了湿度场试验,最后利用模式输出结果对水汽螺旋度和水汽涡度收支进行了诊断分析。结果表明,数值模式比较合理地再现了本次暴雨天气过程。显式降水在模拟的总降水量中占了很大的比重,但是在暴雨爆发初期,积云降水起了重要作用。对流层中层的水汽饱和程度对模拟降水性质及降水量大小有重要影响,显式降水一般发生在空气饱和程度较高的区域,而位势不稳定则是诱发积云降水的主要原因。对流层中低层水汽螺旋度的强度变化在一定程度上代表了降水系统的强弱变化,其高值区与强降水落区在出现的时间和空间上都存在较好的一致性。水汽涡度收支对于水汽涡度及水汽螺旋度的变化具有很好的指示意义,可以作为预报降水的一个动力指标。     

Annual ENSO simulated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

Using an output from 200-year integration of the Scale Interaction Experiment of EU project-F1 model (SINTEX-F1), the annual ENSO reproduced in the coupled general circulation model is investigated, suggesting the importance of reproducing an annual cycle in realistically simulating ENSO events. Although many features of the annual ENSO are reproduced, the northward expansion of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the eastern tropical Pacific stays south of the equator. It is suggested that this model bias is due to the excitation of the too strong Rossby waves in the southeastern tropical Pacific, which reflect at the western boundary and intrude into the eastern equatorial Pacific. The zonal wind stress anomaly along the equator also plays an important role in generating the equatorial Kelvin waves. The amplitude of SSTA for the annual ENSO mode is reproduced, but its variance is only 20% of the observation; this is again due to the lack of northward migration of seasonal SSTA in the equatorial region and weaker coastal Kelvin waves along South America. Remedies for the model bias are discussed.     

新一代温室气体排放情景

温室气体排放情景,是对未来气候变化预估的基础.过去应用的情景设计是在2000年完成的,早就需要更新与补充了,IPCC第4次评估报告已经提出了这个要求[1].对于这种必要性Moss等[2]在2010年就进行了深入的讨论.通过2-3年的工作,新一代排放情景已经形成,这里综合评估模式协作(IAMC)计划发挥了关键的作用.2011年Climatic Change出版了专号[3-4],介绍了新一代情景的设计,并对4种情景分别作了详细的分析[5-8].