地震前地震活动周期谱特征及其应用

在对最大熵谱方法进行检验的基础上,应用这一方法,通过对24次6级以上地震的地震活动增强区内地震活动度的周期谱特征进行研究,得到如下认识:① 在孕震过程中,地震活动增强区内的活动在不同阶段,表现出的周期谱不同．正常时段的周期谱长周期与短周期并存,而震前阶段只存在短周期（平均为长周期的43％左右）,长周期消失;② 震前出现短周期的时间与震级有关．8级地震一般为震前数十年乃至上百年,7级地震一般为30年以上,而6级地震一般为20～30年．对于同震级地震,其出现短周期的时间还因地区的不同而不同,一般华北地区较西部地区长．应用坚固体孕震模式对以上特征进行了初步分析,提出了运用最大熵谱方法进行强大地震的趋势预测思路,并将此思路应用于实践,对云南武定6.5级和丽江7.0级两次地震进行了预测尝试．从而为6级以上地震的趋势预测提供了一种途径．      

汤原断陷断裂构造特征及其对油气成藏的控制作用

汤原断陷是典型的受断裂控制的陆相盆地。盆地内断裂极为发育。断裂的发育主要有 Ｎ Ｅ向和 Ｎ Ｗ － Ｎ Ｗ Ｗ 方向,断裂的分布具有东西分带,南北分群的特征。按断裂的成因类型可划分出７ 种类型。断裂对油气生成、运聚及成藏的控制作用主要表现在：基底大断裂控制了烃源岩的展布,主干断裂控制了圈闭的形成和分布,断裂为油气运移提供了通道作用,断裂的封闭性为油气的聚集成藏提供了遮挡条件。     

Assessment of flow–ecology relationships for environmental flow standards: a synthesis focused on the southeast USA

ABSTRACT

Environmental flow standards are a management tool that can help to protect the ecosystem services sustained by rivers. Although environmental flow requirements can be assessed using a variety of methods, most of these methods require establishing relationships between flow and habitat of species of concern. Here, we conducted a synthesis of past flow–ecology studies in the southeast USA. For each state or interstate river basin, we used the published data to determine the flow metrics that resulted in the greatest changes in ecological metrics, and the ecological metrics that were most sensitive to hydrologic alteration. The flow metrics that were most important in preserving ecological metrics were high-flow duration and frequency, 3-day maximum and minimum, and number of reversals. The ecological metrics most sensitive to hydrologic alteration were mostly related to presence or absence of key indicator species.     

重庆地区重复地震识别及在数字地震台网定位评价中的应用

利用重庆数字地震台网2010年1月至2017年12月的地震波形资料和观测报告,选出5个研究区1 251个M_L≥1.5地震进行波形互相关计算,识别出358对同时被2个地震台站记录且各台波形互相关系数(cc)不小于0.8的重复地震对,涉及342个地震事件,约占地震总数的27%。将筛选出的重复地震对用于定量判断地震目录中震相拾取误差及评估台网定位精度,结果显示:重庆数字地震台网的垂直定位误差约为3 km,水平定位误差约为5 km,Pg、Sg震相拾取误差分别为0.5 s和0.7 s;其中武隆区地震定位和震相拾取精度最高,綦江区最低。     

湖陆风效应为主导的地面弱风预报方法

对博斯腾湖东南陆地风场数据进行计算,结合湖陆风效应初步建立夏半年各月风场日变化模型,得出风场日变化的4个典型时段。结果表明,区域测站一致性系数和风场有较好的对应关系,一致性系数小于50说明风向不稳定且风速较小,一致性系数大于80说明风向趋于稳定且风速一般较大,弱风时段主要出现在日出日落前后,且具有2h左右的持续时间。该方法为该地区弱风时段预报提供了思路,在稳定的高压脊形势下效果尤为明显。     

石羊河流域干旱气候对ENSO事件的响应及预测分析

根据石羊河流域5个气象站1961—2018年的降水、气温、干旱实况资料,利用气候统计学方法分析ENSO事件对该区气候变化及干旱的影响。结果表明:厄尔尼诺事件会造成流域春季降水偏多,春、秋、冬季气温偏高,易出现暖冬;拉尼娜事件则春季降水偏少,秋季降水偏多,冬季气温偏低,易出现冷冬,中下游发生中度以上春旱、春末夏初旱和伏旱的概率较高。应用1968—2010年旬、月气象要素和大气环流特征量,采用最优子集回归方法,建立降水和干旱统计预测模式,然后结合ENSO事件,通过加权平均法构建集成预测概念模型。对模型进行检验,拟合率与准确率较高,已投入业务使用。     

Bathymetric inversion of South China Sea from satellite altimetry data

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Parameterization of the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium source function with chemical production by an equivalent two-level model

The classic two-level or equivalent two-level model that includes only the statistical equilibriumof radiative and thermal processes of excitation and quenching between two vibrational energy levelsis extended by adding chemical production to the rate equations. The modifications to the non-localthermodynamic equilibrium source function and cooling rate are parameterized by φc, which characterizesthe ratio of chemical production to collisional quenching. For applications of broadband emission of O3 at9.6 μm, the non-LTE effect of chemical production on the cooling rate and limb emission is proportionalto the ratio of O to O3. For a typical [O]/[O3], the maximum enhancements of limb radiance and coolingrate are about 15%-30% and 0.03-0.05 K day-1, respectively, both occurring near the mesopause regions.This suggests that the broadband limb radiance above ～80 km is sensitive to O3 density but not sensitiveto the direct cooling rate along the line-of-sight, which makes O3 retrieval feasible but the direct coolingrate retrieval difficult by using the O3 9.6 μm band limb emission.     

Sea ice thickness measurement and its underside morphology analysis using radar penetration in the Arctic Ocean

Sea ice, as an important component of the Arctic climate system, has drawn significant sci-entific interest. Sea ice thickness and its morphology have dramatic impacts on ocean-atmos- phere-ice interactions[1—4], which directly affect the exchange proces…     

Distribution of ionospheric O<Superscript>+</Superscript> ion in synchronous altitude region

Based on satellite observation data, using dynamics equation, the ionospheric O⁺ ion’s distribution in the synchronous altitude region for different geomagnetic activity indexK _p is studied by theoretical modeling and numerical analyzing, and semi-empirical models for the O⁺ ion’s density and flux versus longitude in the synchronous altitude region for differentK _p are given. The main results show that in the synchronous altitude region: (i) The O⁺ ion’s density and flux in day-side are larger than those in nightside. (ii) With longitude changing, the higher the geomagnetic activity indexK _p is, the higher the O⁺ ion’s density and flux, and their variation amplitude will be. The O⁺ ion’s density and flux whenK _{p ≥} 6 will be about ten times as great as that whenK _p = 0. (iii) WhenK _p = 0 orK _{p ≥} 6, the O⁺ ion’s density reaches maximum at longitudes 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail. WhenK _p = 3−5, the O⁺ ion’s density gets to maximum at longitude 0°, and minimum in the magnetotail. However, the O⁺ ion’s flux reaches maximum at longitude 120° and 240° respectively, and minimum in the magnetotail for anyK _p value.