����������쳣�ĵ���Ӱ�����

????????????????????????????????????????????????SymletС?????????о?????????????????????????????????????, ???????????4???5??????????????????????????????????????2???3????????????????????????????????????????????ε????????????????ο???     

����ARģ�͵��Ϻ������������Ԥ�����

????AR?????????????????????????????????????AIC?????AR????????????????????,AR??4?????????????????????AR(4)???????????δ??10???????????????????     

A multi-scale 3-D crust velocity model in the Hefei-Chao Lake area around the southern segment of Tanlu Fault Zone

Regional high-precision velocity models of the crust are an important foundation for examining seismic activity, seismogenic environments, and disaster distribution characteristics. The Hefei-Chao Lake area contains the main geological units of Hefei Basin, with thick sediments and the Chao Lake depression. Several major concealed faults of the southern NNE-trending Tanlu Fault Zone cross this area. To further explore the underground distribution characteristics of the faults and their tectonic evolutionary relationship with adjacent tectonic units, this study used ambient noise data recorded by a seismic array deployed in Hefei City and Chao Lake, constructing a 3-D velocity model at the depth of 1–8 km. Then a multi-scale high-resolution 3-D velocity model of this area was constructed by this new upper crustal velocity model with the previous middle and lower crustal model. The new model reveals that a high-velocity belt is highly consistent with the strike of the Tanlu Fault Zone, and a low-velocity sedimentary characteristic is consistent with the Hefei Basin and Chao Lake depression. The distribution morphology of high and low velocity bodies shows that the sedimentary pattern of Hefei-Chao Lake area is closely related to the tectonic evolution of the Tanlu Fault Zone since the Mesozoic. This study also identifies multiple low-velocity anomalies in the southeastern Hefei City. We speculate that strong ground motion during the 2009 Feidong earthquake (magnitude of 3.5) was related to amplification by the thick sediments in the Hefei Basin. We also discuss further applications of multi-scale high-resolution models of the shallow layer to strong ground motion simulations in cities and for earthquake disaster assessments.     

The interannual variability of the surface eddy kinetic energy in the Labrador Sea

The variability of the surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea is investigated with a suite of numerical integrations using a regional ocean model. Simulations are performed over the period 1980–2001 and are compared to satellite observations over the last 9 years. The surface EKE pattern in the basin is dominated by a region along the West coast of Greenland where eddies, mainly anticyclonic, are formed by instability of the main currents flowing over the continental slope, consistent with previous idealized results. Here the interannual changes are linked to the shear of the incoming boundary current system imposed as boundary condition to the model domain. The highly variable strength of the East Greenland current at the northeast boundary, derived from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, strongly influences the vortex formation.In the center of the Labrador Sea, where deep convection occurs, a statistically significant portion of the modeled interannual surface EKE variability is correlated with the local atmospheric forcing, and both heat and wind fluxes play an important role and can be adopted as predictors at a lag of 2–3 months. The Arctic Oscillation index can also be used as a remote indicator of the atmospheric fluxes, but with lower skill than local measurements. In contrast the North Atlantic Oscillation index does not correlate significantly with the surface EKE at intraseasonal and interannual scales. The analysis of altimeter data over the 1993–2001 supports the existence of this asymmetry between the regime locally forced by the atmosphere in the central basin, and the regime remotely forced by the incoming boundary current along the west Greenland coast. Those results have important implications for monitoring and predicting the surface eddy kinetic energy variability in the Labrador Sea.     

Stochastic Response Analysis of Piled Offshore Platform Excited by Stationary Filtered White Noise

In this paper,the analysis method of stochastic response of piled offshore platform excited bystationary filtered white noise is presented.With this method,the strong ground motion is considered asthree direction stationary filtered white noise process,the theoretic solutions of three special integrationequations are derived with the residue theorem,and the expression of response nodal displacements andmember forces of offshore platform excited by the stationary filtered white noise is put forward.Thestochastic response of a piled offshore platform excited by the stationary filtered white noise,which is lo-cated 114.3m in water depth,is computed.The results are compared with those obtained with the re-sponse spectrum analysis method and the stationary white noise model analysis method,and the corre-sponding conclusion is drawn.     

东海沿岸上升流的数值计算

运用Ｂａｃｋｈａｕｓ的三维非线性模型,同时考虑潮,风和台湾暖流的作用,本文计算了夏季我国东海沿岸上升流。结果表明,东海沿岸从杭州湾口外一直到闽北的海底坡折区上存在明显的上升流,它呈带状分布,宽约４０ｋｍ,舟山近海的强上升流出现在３０ｍ层,向南则可达到较深的水层,流速一般为６．５×１０＾－３ｃｍ／ｓ。     

钱塘江流域水资源对厄尔尼诺事件的响应

根据水资源对厄尔尼诺事件的响应，得出了钱塘江流域水资源的统计预报模式：（１）在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年径流量的距平一般都大于零：（２）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过５月１日，那么次年金华站年径流量的距平一般都大于零；（３）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大。对钱塘江流域水资源的影响也越大。这对该流域长期及超长期的水资源预报具有重要的指示作用。     

甲醛对Nessler法和次氯酸酚盐法测定养殖水体总氨氮的影响

水体中含一定浓度的甲醛 ,用 Nessler法测得的总氨氮 (TAN)浓度远远高于实际浓度 ,差异百分数最高达 4 5 0 .0 6 % ;用次氯酸酚盐法测得的总氨氮 (TAN)浓度则明显低于实际浓度 ,差异百分数最高可达 84 .77%。甲醛浓度范围为 10～ 4 0 mg/ L、TAN浓度为 1～ 10 mg/ L,通过双因素有重复观察值的交叉实验 ,得到如下矫正式 :(1)用 Nessler法测 TAN时 ,Y=4 .0 5 2 9- 0 .0 72 4 x1+ 0 .2 0 6 4x2 ,标准误差为 1.3381;(2 )用次氯酸酚盐法测 TAN时 ,Y=0 .1196 + 0 .0 345 x1+ 1.0 0 2 2 x2 ,标准误差为 0 .4 6 2 7。 Y为 TAN实际浓度 (mg/ L) ,x1为甲醛浓度 (mg/ L) ,x2 为测得的 TAN浓度(mg/ L )。比较含氨氮水体与不含氨氮水体中的甲醛浓度 ,方差分析结果表明 ,没有显著差异。     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

Radio variability of the blazar S5 0716+714: a ∼6.1 year quasi-periodicity

We report a ～6.1 yr quasi-periodicity for the blazar S5 0716+714 using the radio light curves at 4.8, 8 and 14.5 GHz observed by the University of Michigan Radio Astronomical Observatory (UMRAO) from 1981 to 2012, by means of the Jurkevich, discrete correlation function (DCF) and power spectral analysis techniques. There are a general correlation among light curves at different frequencies and a time lag of \(170\pm 10\) days between 4.8 and 14.5 GHz light curves can be confirmed. We also estimate the orbit parameters assuming a binary black hole system, and the magnetic field strength under the jet comoving frame.