新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

任意阵列形状的欠定多目标方位估计

随着人类社会对海洋认识和探索的深入,对水下监测和探测设备提出了更高的要求,探测阵列模型和阵列信号处理算法决定了监测和探测设备的复杂度。 针对特定水下多目标定位平台的复杂环境,建立了一种任意空间阵列数学模型,介绍了四阶累积量算法,分析了阵列信号处理中四阶累积量的阵列扩展特性。 基于四阶累积量的 MUSIC 算法的空间谱分析,建立了任意阵列形状的欠自由度多目标方位估计的理论基础。 计算机仿真结果表明了算法的正确性和有效性。     

10年时间尺度气候预测

<正>10年时间尺度的气候预测,由于能够提供给政策制定者和有关部门与单位近期的气候变化预测,作为经济规划和社会生活安排等的参考,因此越来越受到重视。10年气候预测是气候科学中一个新的领域,一般预测方法采用:一是统计预测方法,根据前期气候变化特征,利用统计关系,计算预测未来10年的气候变化;二是动力模式预测方法,利用全球或区域气候模式,在一定初边条件和外强迫作用下,预测未来10年的气候变化;三是动力加统计     

Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales

The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Use of CloudSat and MODIS Data for Estimating Hurricane Intensity

This letter presents preliminary results concerning the use of new observations from the A-Train Constellation for testing a new technique of remotely sensing hurricane intensity from space based on modeling a hurricane as a balanced, convectively neutral vortex. The key observational requirements are simultaneous, accurate measurements of cloud-top height, cloudtop temperature, and cloud profiling information across the center of the storm, although there are ways to bypass the need for cloud-top temperature. In this letter, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard Aqua provides an estimation of the cloud-top temperature, and the near-simultaneous CloudSat observations provide the essential cloud-top height and cloud profiling information. Initial results indicate that the new technique is a promising method for estimating storm intensity when compared post facto to the best track database. Potential uncertainties and room for further refinement of the technique are discussed.     

A conduit-related genesis of the Lengshuiqing intrusive assemblage (Sichuan,SW China)

Lengshuiqing is part of the late Proterozoic igneous province from the western margin of the Yangtze craton. The Lengshuiqing area comprises five ultramafic–mafic intrusions, emplaced in the late Proterozoic Yanbian Group. The intrusions from Lengshuiqing contain cumulate ultramafic zones (peridotite + olivine pyroxenite), with cumulus olivine and Cr-spinel, and intercumulus pyroxenes, hornblende, phlogopite and plagioclase. Ni–Cu ore (pyrrhotite + pentlandite + chalcopyrite) is hosted in the ultramafic zones. Olivine-free diorite–quartz diorite ± gabbro and granite zones commonly occur above the ultramafic rocks. The genesis of the intrusions (conduit-related accumulation or differentiation from stagnant magma) was investigated. The amount of sulphides in the intrusions from Lengshuiqing is one order of magnitude bigger than the sulphides that can be dissolved by a volume of mafic magma similar with the volume of the intrusions. Most intrusions from Lengshuiqing have bulk composition (peridotite ± diorite ± granite) more magnesian (MgO = 21–22%; Mg# > 78) than the deduced composition of their parental magma (MgO = 9–11%; Mg# = 64–67). This indicates the accumulation of sulphide and mafic silicates from a volume of magma much bigger than the volume of the intrusions, which can be explained by the fractionation from magma ascending through the intrusions to shallower depths. A continuous supply and vent of magma is consistent with the lack of chilled margins, the melting of the wall rocks and the generation of high-temperature mineral assemblages (K-feldspar, diopside, and sillimanite) in the Yanbian Group. The intrusions from Lengshuiqing are seen as microchambers on conduits draining olivine-, Cr-spinel-, and sulphide-bearing mafic magma from a larger staging chamber.     

First arrival cycle-based calculation methods of in situ sound speed and attenuation in sediments

The acoustic properties of seafloor sediments are of great importance in geoacoustic modeling, detecting, and oceanic engineering. The methods based on the first arrival cycle are investigated to calculate sound speed and attenuation of sediment more precisely in in situ measurements. The comparison of different data analysis methods based on the first arrival cycle approach for in situ measurement results in the following conclusions: (1) the calculated methods can help find the effective cycles and reduce the errors in calculating sound speed and attenuation; (2) using this approach, the point judgment method-based data analysis has the same effectiveness as the cross-correlation method-based data analysis in calculating group sound speed and has the same effectiveness in calculating attenuation in the time domain as the spectrum analysis method-based data analysis has in calculating attenuation in frequency domain; and (3) measurement in water can help not only calibrate the transmitting distance but also can calculate the time delay for the sound speed and the attenuation loss in the transmitting process. Finally, theoretical calculation was used to calculate the measured results, indicating a good agreement, which supports that first arrival cycle-based calculated methods can be used to analyze the measured data and the effective density fluid model can be used to analyze more acoustic properties and invert several physical properties in this experiment.     

南海南部大陆架的残留沉积

研究了南海南部大陆架的残留沉积物的粒度、石英砂表面结构特征、生物分布等，并指出残留沉积普遍遭受改造。按其早期的形成环境差异和改造作用不同，划分出加里曼丹－巴拉望残留沉积区和亚南巴斯－纳土纳残留沉积区。     

The nonlinear hydrodynamic model for simulating a ship steering in waves with autopilot system

In the paper, a hydrodynamic numerical model including wave effect is developed to simulate ship autopilot systems by using the time domain analysis. The PD controller and the sliding mode controller are adopted as the autopilot systems. The differences of simulation results between two controllers are analyzed by cost function composed of heading angle error and rudder deflection, either in calm water or in waves. The results in calm water show that both controllers are tracking well for the desired route with the similar cost function value by tuning the key design parameters. However, the course tracking ability of the controller using sliding mode in waves is generally better even the cost function value is similar.     

一种潜艇装备作战能力比较研究方法

对潜艇装备作战能力评估问题进行了研究,发现运用定量评估方法的过程中存在指标评价所需数据无法完全获取的问题。结合美弗吉尼亚潜艇改进情况,分析了影响潜艇作战能力的一些关键因素,重点基于潜艇武器装载能力,对国外典型潜艇进行了作战能力比较分析,最后对分析结果进行了评价,并讨论了未来潜艇作战能力评估方法的发展方向。