Coda Q before and after the eruptions of 13 November 1985, and 1 September 1989, at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano, Colombia

 Coda Q^–1 was calculated at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano (NRV) before and after two phreatomagmatic eruptions (November 1985, September 1989) and for a period of stability (May 1987) using a functional form for coda derived from a single scattering model (Sato 1977). Substantial changes were found before and after the eruptions. The highest value of Q^–1 was found during the November 1985 eruption, an intermediate value for the September 1989 eruption, and the lowest value for May 1987. It seems that the changes in coda Q^–1 at NRV have a still-unknown relationship with the volume or magnitude of the eruption. A relatively strong frequency dependence was found for all periods. Also Q^–1 clearly changed with time, suggesting that the scattering was strong for the eruption of November 1985 and decreased for the eruption of September 1989, and that the intrinsic absorption probably increased. This suggests the possibility that crystallization is taking place in the NRV magma. The clear change of coda Q^–1 before and after the eruptions at NRV also suggests the possibility that coda Q^–1 is a premonitory tool of activity at this volcano. Received: 25 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 January 1998     

Using low-density discrete Airborne Laser Scanning data to assess the potential carbon dioxide emission in case of a fire event in a Mediterranean pine forest

The aim of study is to map the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission of the aboveground tree biomass (AGB) in case of a fire event. The suitability of low point density, discrete, multiple-return, Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data and the influence of several characteristics of these data and the study area on the results obtained have been evaluated. A sample of 45 circular plots representative of Pinus halepensis Miller stands were used to fit and validate the model of AGB. The ALS point clouds were processed to obtain the independent variables and a multivariate linear regression analysis between field data and ALS-derived variables allowed estimation of AGB. Then, the influence of several characteristics on the residuals of the model was analyzed. Finally, conversion factors were applied to obtain the CO₂ values. The AGB model presented a R² value of 0.84 with a relative root-mean-square error of 27.35%. This model included ALS variables related to vegetation height variability and to canopy density. Terrain slope, aspect, canopy cover, scan angle and the number of laser returns did not influence AGB estimations at plot level.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Jurassic‐to‐present thermal history of the central High Atlas (Morocco) assessed by low‐temperature thermochronology

Apatite fission track (AFT) and (U–Th)/He data from the High Atlas have been obtained for the first time to constrain the tectono‐thermal evolution of the central part of the chain. Results from Palaeozoic basement massifs indicate long residence at low temperatures, consistently with their original location out of the deepest Mesozoic rift troughs and indicating minor exhumation. The best rocks for extracting the Alpine history of the Atlas Mountains are Jurassic intrusives, which yield AFT ages centred on c. 80 Ma; thermal models based on AFT data and constrained by (U–Th)/He suggest that these ages are included in a slow cooling trend from intrusion age to c. 50 Ma ago that we attribute to post‐rift thermal relaxation. This is followed by a stability period of c. 30 Ma and then by a final exhumational cooling until present exposure. Eocene intrusives yield AFT ages similar to those of Rb–Sr and K–Ar suggesting rapid emplacement in the uppermost crust.     

Geochemical evidence (C,N and Pb isotopes) of recent anthropogenic impact in south‐central Chile from two environmentally distinct lake sediment records

In this paper, we compare the elemental and isotopic (C, N, Pb) geochemistry of lake sediments from two contrasted environments in south‐central Chile. The first lake, Laguna Chica de San Pedro (LCSP), is situated in the urbanised area of the Biobio Region (36°S). The second lake, Lago Puyehue (40° S), is located 400 km to the southeast of LCSP and within an Andean national park. Our aim is to identify environmental impacts associated with increasing industrial activities and land degradation during the last 150 a. In LCSP, shifts in C/N atomic ratios, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N from 1915–1937 to the late 1980s are attributed to successive land degradation episodes in the lake watershed. Based on a Pb isotopic mixing model, we estimate that up to 20% of lead in LCSP sediments is supplied from urban atmospheric pollution. By contrast, human impact in the watershed of Lago Puyehue is very limited. We observe no change in organic geochemistry during the last 150 a and lead contamination remains lower than 5%, even during the last decades. Although contamination levels are much higher in LCSP than in Lago Puyehue, a peak in anthropogenic Pb is recorded during the same period (1974–1976) at both sites. This maximum contamination level is consistent with increased industrial activity in the vicinity of Concepción. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

shinyNORRRM: A Cross-Platform Software to Calculate the CIPW Norm

In this paper, a novelty-free software to assess an efficient CIPW Norm (± 0.006 wt.% in differences between input and output data) is presented. The package is available in the official repository for user-contributed R packages (CRAN: Comprehensive R Archive Network). The software is able to handle big data sets and considers minor and trace element compositions. The algorithm can calculate odd minerals in igneous rocks, such as cancrinite and calcite, adjust the Fe⁺³/Fe⁺² ratio in different standard approaches, and recalculate the compositions of the rocks in an anhydrous basis (100 ± 0.003 wt.% volatile-free adjusted). Furthermore, the package calculates several petrological parameters, and the graphical outputs are displayed following IUGS scheme standards. The prime aspect of shinyNORRRM is the symbiosis of native R functions with the R package’s shiny (Web Application Framework for R) to run the norm in a user-friendly interface. shinyNORRRM can be executed in any operating system and requires no previous programming knowledge, thus promising to be the universal computational program in this matter. The output data are printed in the standard comma-separated values (*.csv) format, which is highly compatible with general spreadsheet editors. In this work, the algorithm of our program is validated using already compiled whole-rock geochemical databases.

     

Verification of two hydrological models for real-time flood forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region

Natural Hazards - The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is extremely susceptible to periodic monsoon floods. Early warning systems with the ability to predict floods in advance can benefit tens of...     

Post glacial lacustrine event sedimentation in an ancient mountain setting: Carboniferous Lake Malanzán (Western Argentina)

Lacustrine deposits of the Malanzán Formation record sedimentation in a small and narrow mountain paleovalley. Lake Malanzán was one of several water bodies formed in the Paganzo Basin during the Late Carboniferous deglaciation. Five sedimentary facies have been recognized. Facies A (Dropstones-bearing laminated mudstones) records deposition from suspension fall-out and probably underflow currents coupled with ice-rafting processes in a basin lake setting. Facies B (Ripple cross-laminated sandstones and siltstones) was deposited from low density turbidity currents in a lobe fringe environment. Facies C (Massive or graded sandstones) is thought to represent sedimentation from high and low density turbidity currents in sand lobes. Facies D (Folded sandstones and siltstones) was formed from slumping in proximal lobe environments. Facies E (Wave-rippled sandstones) records wave reworking of sands supplied by turbidity currents above wave base level.The Lake Malanzán succession is formed by stacked turbidite sand lobe deposits. These lobes were probably formed in proximal lacustrine settings, most likely relatively high gradient slopes. Paleocurrents indicate a dominant direction from cratonic areas to the WSW. Although the overall sequence shows a regressive trend from basin fine-grained deposits to deltaic and braided fluvial facies, individual lobe packages lack of definite vertical trends in bed thickness and grain size. This fact suggests aggradation from multiple-point sources, rather than progradation from single-point sources. Sedimentologic and paleoecologic evidence indicate high depositional rate and sediment supply. Deposition within the lake was largely dominated by event sedimentation. Low diversity trace fossil assemblages of opportunistic invertebrates indicate recolonization of event beds under stressed conditions.Three stages of lake evolutionary history have been distinguished. The vertical replacement of braided fluvial deposits by basinal facies indicates high subsidence and a lacustrine transgressive episode. This flooding event was probably linked to a notable base level rise during postglacial times. The second evolutionary stage was typified by the formation of sand turbidite lobes from downslope mass-movements. Lake history culminates with the progradation of deltaic and braided fluvial systems