Lava flow simulations using discharge rates from thermal infrared satellite imagery during the 2006 Etna eruption

Techniques capable of measuring lava discharge rates during an eruption are important for hazard prediction, warning, and mitigation. To this end, we developed an automated system that uses thermal infrared satellite MODIS data to estimate time-averaged discharge rate. MODIS-derived time-varying discharge rates were used to drive lava flow simulations calculated using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model, allowing us to simulate the discharge rate-dependent spread of lava as a function of time. During the July 2006 eruption of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), discharge rates were estimated at regular intervals (i.e., up to 2 times/day) using the MODIS data. The eruption lasted 10 days and produced a ~3-km-long lava flow field. Time-averaged discharge rates extracted from 13 MODIS images were utilized to produce a detailed chronology of lava flow emplacement, demonstrating how infrared satellite data can be used to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths during an ongoing eruptive event. The good agreement between simulated and mapped flow areas indicates that model-based inundation predictions, driven by time-varying discharge rate data, provide an excellent means for assessing the hazard posed by ongoing effusive eruptions.     

Hydrogeochemical study in the Main Ethiopian Rift: new insights to the source and enrichment mechanism of fluoride

The central Main Ethiopian Rift suffers a severe water quality problem, characterized by an anomalously high fluoride (F) content that causes an endemic fluorosis disease. The current study, conducted in the Ziway–Shala lakes basin, indicates that the F content exceeds the permissible limit for drinking prescribed by the World Health Organization (WHO; 1.5 mg/l) in many important wells (up to 20 mg/l), with even more extreme F concentration in hot springs and alkaline lakes (up to 97 and 384 mg/l respectively). The groundwater and surface water from the highlands, typically characterized by low total dissolved solids (TDS) and Ca (Mg)–HCO₃ hydrochemical facies, do not show high F content. The subsequent interaction of these waters with the various rocks of the rift valley induces a general increase of the TDS, and a variation of the chemical signature towards Na–HCO₃ compositions, with a parallel enrichment of F. The interacting matrixes are mainly rhyolites consisting of volcanic glass and only rare F-bearing accessory minerals (such as alkali amphibole). Comparing the abundance and the composition of the glassy groundmass with other mineral phases, it appears that the former stores most of the total F budget. This glassy material is extremely reactive, and its weathering products (i.e. fluvio/volcano-lacustrine sediments) further concentrate the fluoride. The interaction of these “weathered/reworked” volcanic products with water and carbon dioxide at high pH causes the release of fluoride into the interacting water. This mainly occurs by a process of base-exchange softening with the neo-formed clay minerals (i.e. Ca–Mg uptake by the aquifer matrix, with release of Na into the groundwater). This is plausibly the main enrichment mechanism that explains the high F content of the local groundwater, as evidenced by positive correlation between F, pH, and Na, and inverse correlation between F and Ca (Mg). Saturation indices (SI) have been calculated (using PHREEQC-2) for the different water groups, highlighting that the studied waters are undersaturated in fluorite. In these conditions, fluoride cannot precipitate as CaF₂, and so mobilizes freely without forming other complexes. These results have important implications for the development of new exploitation strategies and accurate planning of new drilling sites. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Amphibole megacrysts as a probe into the deep plumbing system of Merapi volcano,Central Java,Indonesia

Amphibole has been discussed to potentially represent an important phase during early chemical evolution of arc magmas, but is not commonly observed in eruptive arc rocks. Here, we present an in-depth study of metastable calcic amphibole megacrysts in basaltic andesites of Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Radiogenic Sr and Nd isotope compositions of the amphibole megacrysts overlap with the host rock range, indicating that they represent antecrysts to the host magmas rather than xenocrysts. Amphibole-based barometry suggests that the megacrysts crystallised at pressures of >500 MPa, i.e., in the mid- to lower crust beneath Merapi. Rare-earth element concentrations, in turn, require the absence of magmatic garnet in the Merapi feeding system and, therefore, place an uppermost limit for the pressure of amphibole crystallisation at ca. 800 MPa. The host magmas of the megacrysts seem to have fractionated significant amounts of amphibole and/or clinopyroxene, because of their low Dy/Yb ratios relative to the estimated compositions of the parent magmas to the megacrysts. The megacrysts’ parent magmas at depth may thus have evolved by amphibole fractionation, in line with apparently coupled variations of trace element ratios in the megacrysts, such as e.g., decreasing Zr/Hf with Dy/Yb. Moreover, the Th/U ratios of the amphibole megacrysts decrease with increasing Dy/Yb and are lower than Th/U ratios in the basaltic andesite host rocks. Uranium in the megacrysts’ parent magmas, therefore, may have occurred predominantly in the tetravalent state, suggesting that magmatic fO₂ in the Merapi plumbing system increased from below the FMQ buffer in the mid-to-lower crust to 0.6–2.2 log units above it in the near surface environment. In addition, some of the amphibole megacrysts experienced dehydrogenation (H₂ loss) and/or dehydration (H₂O loss), as recorded by their variable H₂O contents and D/H and Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratios, and the release of these volatile species into the shallow plumbing system may facilitate Merapi’s often erratic eruptive behaviour.     

Definition and performance of a threshold-based regional early warning model for rainfall-induced landslides

A process chain for the definition and the performance assessment of an operational regional warning model for rainfall-induced landslides, based on rainfall thresholds, is proposed and tested in a landslide-prone area in the Campania region, southern Italy. A database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003–2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall threshold equations are defined applying a well-known frequentist method to all the reconstructed rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides in the area of analysis. Several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities (percentiles) are evaluated, and nine different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, for each combination, the issuing of warning levels is computed by comparing, over time, the measured rainfall with the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system, i.e. the one providing the best model performance in terms of success and error indicators, is selected employing the “event, duration matrix, performance” (EDuMaP) method.     

Impact,Mechanism,Monitoring of Land Subsidence in Coastal Cities(Annual Work of IGCP 663)

正Land subsidence is a worldwide geohazard consisting in the lowering of the ground surface due to natural and human-induced processes occurring in the shallow and deep subsoil.Over the last two decades,land subsidence has caused damages and widespread impacts to a variety of infrastructures in coastal cities (Ma et al.,2011;Liu et al.,2016;Minderhoud et al.,2018).Meanwhile,it is particularly alarming as it reduces the ground     

Wave response of a spar buoy with and without a damping plate

Report on a computer analysis of wave response of a spar buoy that has been operated successfully in the Mediterranean over the past ten years, to find out how the presence of a large horizontal plate at the bottom affects its wave response. The calculations show that the addition of a damping plate decreases have response for short waves but increases the response for very long waves.     

Geometry of the neotectonic stress field in southern Italy: Geological and seismological evidence

The neotectonic regime in southern Italy has been evaluated by making a comparison between all the available structural and seismological data. The area investigated can be subdivided into four distinct zones which are characterized by different stress regimes. In the Southern Apennines the tensile axis of the stress field is oriented approximately NE-SW while the maximum principal stress (σ₁) is subvertical. In Northern Calabria, the tensile axis is ESE-WNW and the σ₁ axis is almost vertical. In the Catanzaro trough both the tensile axis and the σ₁ axis are subhorizontal and act E-W and N-S, respectively. Finally, the Strait of Messina zone is characterized by a tensile axis oriented E-W and by σ₁ being subvertical.     

Chemical Analysis of Iron Meteorites by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

Iron meteorites were analysed for nineteen siderophile and chalcophile elements by conventional inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry with the specific aim of demonstrating that this technique is an effective alternative to the more routine, yet complex, methodologies adopted in this field such as instrumental or radiochemical neutron activation analysis. Two aliquots of each meteorite sample, in the form of small shavings, were dissolved, one in 6 mol l^-1 HNO₃ and the other in aqua regia , and diluted to a final concentration of 1 mg sample per 1 ml of solution, without pre-concentrating the analytes. Nitric acid solutions were used for the determination of the elements Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Ga, Ge and As; aqua regia solutions were analysed for the elements Mo, Ru, Rh, Pd, In, Sn, Sb, W, Re, Ir, Pt and Au. Samples were analysed by external calibration, carried out using synthetic multi-elemental solutions, and internal standardisation (with Be, Rb and Bi selected as internal standards). The results obtained from the analyses of nine geochemically well-characterized iron meteorites (Canyon Diablo, Odessa, Toluca, Coahuila, Sikhote-Alin, Buenaventura, Tambo Quemado, Gibeon, NWA 859) with widely variable chemical compositions are in good agreement with literature values for most elements. Detection limits were generally below the lowest concentration observed in iron meteorites. The most notable exception is for Ge, which cannot be successfully determined in the low-Ge meteorites of groups IVA, IVB and IIIF and a number of ungrouped irons. A test of the overall reproducibility of the adopted method, undertaken by repeatedly analysing the same Odessa IAB meteorite specimen, yielded relative standard deviations (1 s ) of between 1 and 6% for all elements except Cr (40%).     

Strain localisation in bimineralic rocks: Experimental deformation of synthetic calcite–anhydrite aggregates

Deformation of synthetic calcite–anhydrite aggregates to large shear strains (up to γ = 12.4 at 600 °C, 300 MPa confining pressure and a constant angular displacement rate corresponding to a shear strain rate of 10^− 3 s^− 1) resulted in the first experimental observation of strain localisation from initially homogeneous rocks. In contrast to experiments on pure calcite and anhydrite, which deformed homogeneously to large strains (γ ≥ 5), all experiments on calcite–anhydrite mixtures resulted in heterogeneous deformation at γ > 1 and the formation of narrow localised bands in the microstructures at γ > 4. In these bands, the amount of strain is at least twice as large as in the rest of the sample and individual grains of the same phase cluster and align, thereby forming microstructural layering similar to planar fabrics in natural mylonites. A switch in deformation mechanism in anhydrite from dislocation creep to diffusion creep and/or grain boundary sliding occurs simultaneously with strain localisation. It is concluded that deformation-induced heterogeneous phase distributions cause local strength differences initiating strain localisation in the calcite–anhydrite mixtures. The study suggests that the presence of two phases in combination with a change in deformation mechanism may be responsible for strain localisation in natural poly-mineralic mylonites.