Can Cassini detect a subsurface ocean in Titan from gravity measurements?

Recent models of Titan's interior predict that the satellite contains an ocean of water and ammonia under an icy layer. Direct evidence for the presence of an ocean can be provided on the Cassini mission only by radio science determination of Titan Love number k₂. Simulations that use the five flybys T11, T22 T33, T45, and T68 (the latter two belonging to the extended mission) lead to the result that in the elastic case, where the Love number is real, k₂ will be determined with a one-sigma accuracy of 0.1. In the viscoelastic case, where k₂ is complex, the real and imaginary parts of k₂ will be determined with one sigma accuracies of 0.138 and 0.115, respectively. Ocean and oceanless models that include a viscoelastic rheology are built. In the viscoelastic case, there is a 93% probability to correctly predict the presence or absence of an ocean; this probability improves to 97% in the elastic case.     

Complexity–entropy analysis of daily stream flow time series in the continental United States

Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) is a diagnostic diagram plotting normalized Shannon entropy \({\cal H}_S\) versus Jensen–Shannon complexity \({\cal C}_{JS}\) that has been introduced in nonlinear dynamics analysis to classify signals according to their degrees of randomness and complexity. In this study, we explore the applicability of CECP in hydrological studies by analyzing 80 daily stream flow time series recorded in the continental United States during a period of 75 years, surrogate sequences simulated by autoregressive models (with independent or long-range memory innovations), Theiler amplitude adjusted Fourier transform and Theiler phase randomization, and a set of signals drawn from nonlinear dynamic systems. The effect of seasonality, and the relationships between the CECP quantifiers and several physical and statistical properties of the observed time series are also studied. The results point out that: (1) the CECP can discriminate chaotic and stochastic signals in presence of moderate observational noise; (2) the signal classification depends on the sampling frequency and aggregation time scales; (3) both chaotic and stochastic systems can be compatible with the daily stream flow dynamics, when the focus is on the information content, thus setting these results in the context of the debate on observational equivalence; (4) the empirical relationships between \({\mathcal H}_S\) and \({\mathcal C}_{JS}\) and Hurst parameter H, base flow index, basin drainage area and stream flow quantiles highlight that the CECP quantifiers can be considered as proxies of the long-term low-frequency groundwater processes rather than proxies of the short-term high-frequency surface processes; (6) the joint application of linear and nonlinear diagnostics allows for a more comprehensive characterization of the stream flow time series.     

The filling of the lunar mare basins

The surface of each mare is not a homogeneous geomorphological unit, but displays a variety of geomorphologies. The interpretation of this phenomenon depends on the assumptions one is willing to accept. If the filling of the mare basins occurred relatively slowly, then the geomorphologies are a time function and indicate a time span of not less than three quarters of a billion years between the beginning and the end of the mare filling activity. If, on the other hand, the maria were filled by lava immediately after the basin formation and remained liquid for a relatively long time during which the extensive bombardment stopped, then the different morphologies indicate vagaries in the final stages of the bombardment and of the cooling history.Paper dedicated to Professor Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April, 1973.Research conducted at the Lunar Science Institute which is operated by the Universities Space Research Association under Contract No. NSR 09-051-001 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This paper is Lunar Science Institute Contribution No. 109.     

Analysis of Extreme Events in Geoelectrical Time Series Measured in a Seismic Area of Southern Appenine Chain (Italy)

In the present paper we analyse the series of extreme events in geoelectrical signals recorded at the monitoring station Tito located in a seismic area of southern Italy. Applying an objective criterion to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events in the time series (Cuomo et al., 1996; Cuomo et al., 1997), we found a correlation between the geoelectrical anomalies and earthquakes in the area monitored during the period of recording.     

Local soil failure before general slope failure

Slopes are generally characterized by non-uniform stress field. Additional stresses induced by changes in boundary conditions can emphasize local differences in the stress level. As a consequence, every failure process is, at first, local, with formation of plastic zones, then general. This is the subject of this paper, which concerns clay slopes, whose failure generally implies formation of a shear zone. A special consideration is addressed to the simple and special case of infinite slope which is also featured by transition from local to general failure, even if stress conditions are uniform along the potential failure plane.     

Measuring multifractality in seismic sequences

We investigated the multifractal structure of the interevent times between successive earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marche, which is one of the most seismically active areas of central Italy. We used the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), which permits detection of multifractality in nonstationary series. Analyzing the time evolution of the multifractal behaviour of the seismic sequence, a loss of multifractality during the aftershocks is revealed.     

Local Perceptions of the Livelihood and Conservation Benefits of Small-Scale Livelihood Projects in Rural Madagascar

Small-scale livelihood projects are widely used in forest conservation and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)+ initiatives; however, there is limited information on how effective these projects are at delivering livelihood and conservation benefits. We explored local perceptions of the effectiveness of small-scale livelihood projects in delivering livelihood and conservation benefits in eastern Madagascar. Our results suggest that small-scale livelihood projects vary greatly in their ability to deliver livelihood benefits, and that the type of livelihood project (e.g., agriculture, beekeeping, fish farming, or livestock production) has a significant impact on which livelihood benefits are delivered. Many small-scale livelihood projects, regardless of project type, are perceived to contribute to forest conservation efforts. Our study highlights that small-scale livelihood projects have the potential to contribute to both improved livelihoods and enhanced forest conservation, but also illustrates the need for more information on the factors that lead to project success.     

A simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

A new simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides in unsaturated soils is presented. It includes a special computational weather code for forecasting the evolution of the synoptic weather and its changes due to interaction with the Earth’s surface (rainfall pattern), and a hydro-mechanical code to analyse rainfall effects on slope stability by computing degree of saturation and pore pressure changes due to rainwater infiltration. The linkage between these two numerical codes is ensured by an interface with the aim of bringing the data provided by the first code, which operates at basin or slope scale. The simulation chain can work in computational times that may be considered suitable for civil protection operations.