An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.     

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22° S and 25°S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323–350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days⁻¹for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system.     

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha^?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha^?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.     

Long-term changes of zoobenthic fauna and submerged vegetation in the shallow Lake Monterosi (Italy)

Benthic invertebrates and aquatic vegetation were investigated in the volcanic Lake Monterosi with the aim to define the stage of development reached during progressive modifications which occurred in the shallow lake. Increasing trophy and introduction of an exotic plant (Nelumbo nucifera) were the key-factors responsible for the rapid qualitative reduction of the macrophyte population and its modification to non rooted plants (Ceratophyllum demersum). The invertebrate fauna associated with macrophytes was found to be abundant, diversified (83 taxa) and characterized by high diversity and presence of bioindicators of mesotrophy. Although the zoobenthic community appeared to be positively influenced by the macrophyte-dominated stage, some negative effects of Nelumbo-colonization on the invertebrate fauna indicated that further growth of this plant would cause a rapid change in the lake.     

Characteristics of chaotic pulse trains generated by lightning flashes

Pulse trains of irregular pulse characteristics and erratic amplitudes are observed in lightning flashes. These are termed “chaotic pulse trains” in this study. The average width of the individual pulses of these pulse trains is in the range of a few microseconds, with the lower limit of individual measurements extending into the sub-microsecond region. The typical pulse separation lies in the range of 2–. The pulse duration shows a consistent distribution with the most probable value at 400–. Chaotic pulse trains occur most often immediately prior to subsequent strokes. However, they occur also a few milliseconds to several tens of milliseconds prior to return strokes and sometimes do not precede return strokes at all. Twenty-six percent of the total subsequent strokes recorded in this study were preceded by chaotic pulse trains. A few of these pulse trains have occurred in a sequence of several tens of millisecond intervals in between return strokes. We have also found them to occur within very intense cloud flashes. These chaotic pulse trains have features that are different from those of other known pulse trains reported in the lightning literature. Hence, they may be caused by a physical process that has not yet been identified.     

Non-invasive lab test in the monitoring of vadose zone contaminated by light non-aqueous phase liquid

We discuss a strategy capable of a quantitative long-term monitoring of water saturation and volume variation of light non-aqueous phase liquids in the soil. The goal was reached monitoring a controlled sand cell contaminated with classical gasoline over 124 days, using geophysical methods such as electrical resistivity tomography, induced polarization and ground penetrating radar. We show that empirical relations, linking the water saturation to the physical parameters measured as resistivity from electrical resistivity tomography and travel time from georadar with advanced processing, are good tools for this purpose. The consistence of the proposed process is validated by both good overlap of results carried out from electrical resistivity tomography and georadar and theoretical models simulating the actual experiment.     

Taxonomic sufficiency for soft-bottom sublittoral mollusks assemblages in a tropical estuary, Guanabara Bay, Southeast Brazil

Guanabara Bay (GB) is considered to be one of the most polluted environments of the southern Brazilian coastline. This typical estuarine system is impacted by the heavy discharge of both industrial and domestic waste from the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area. The mollusc community structure and distribution was investigated between 2000 and 2001, using a three month sampling design of 38 stations, according to austral seasons. Species abundance was aggregated into progressively higher taxa matrices (genus, family, order) and were analysed using multivariate techniques. Mollusc distribution in GB varied significantly in space and time and was probably ruled by the organic enrichment effects of hypoxia and altered redox conditions coupled with prevailing patterns of circulation. Within the sectors of GB an increasing gradient in mollusc diversity and occurrence was observed, ranging from the azoic and impoverished stations in the inner sector to a well-structured community in terms of species composition and abundance inhabiting the outer sector. The non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) and cluster analysis showed similar results when species were aggregated into genera and families, while greater difference occurred at coarser taxonomic identification (order). The literature about taxonomic sufficiency has demonstrated that faunal patterns at different taxonomic levels tend to become similar with increased pollution. In Guanabara Bay, an analysis carried out solely at family level is perfectly adequate to describe the ecophysiological stress. Further aggregation to order level changed the perceived patterns of differences. However, a different taxonomic resolution can be chosen depending on the type of ecological patterns investigated.