最优集合预报订正方法在客观温度预报中的应用

数值模式的直接输出预报在实际应用时常与实况产生一定的偏差,对模式预报进行有效的本地化订正是提高预报准确率的重要手段。以欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模式细网格资料,采用最优集合(anolog ensemble,AnEn)预报订正方法对北京市各站1～7 d的日最高气温和日最低气温进行订正,并对相关参数进行了本地化。采用了滑动训练期、优化变量权重两种方案进行训练。检验评估结果表明:(1)滑动训练期采用60 d时能同时保证计算效率和预报准确率;采用最优变量权重方案后,与预报员主观预报准确率对比,AnEn的最低气温优于预报员主观预报,最高气温基本相当;增加训练期的长度(引入多年的历史资料)相比优化变量权重方案能更有效地提高预报准确率。(2)AnEn预报订正方法在改善数值模式预报的固有偏差(如对由数值模式对局地地形、边界层日变化等形成的误差)效果显著,有较好的应用价值;对于因局地天气(如霾、降水、大风等)影响下,AnEn的温度预报准确率虽优于ECMWF,但不如主观预报,未来还有改进空间。还对检验结果进行了时间和空间验证,确保在以后的业务尤其是智能网格预报业务中的运行效果。     

旋转扰动流体中壁面湍流不稳定及其拟序结构研究Ⅰ:实验

重点介绍和讨论了中性条件下旋转扰动流体中边界层强迫不稳定及其相关的一些问题,阐述了旋转体系中切变驱动边界层不稳定的动力学特征.这些不稳定状态的研究在大气物理学、流体动力学、海洋学等多个领域中引起科学家极大的兴趣,近年来在实验和理论研究中都得到了不断的发展.意大利都灵大学基础物理系地球科学实验组通过水槽旋转实验方法,不断改变水槽启动或结束时的旋转运动速度,以及底部壁面粗糙度等要素,所得到的实验结果与SDBL理论非常一致.     

相似集合预报方法在北京区域地面气温和风速预报中的应用

相似集合是近年来提出的一种基于相似理论、大数据挖掘和集合预报思路的统计释用方法。文中首先介绍了相似集合的基本原理,并应用该方法对北京快速更新循环数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）v3.0预报地面要素开展了订正释用试验。结果表明,相似集合订正后,在0—36 h预报时段内,10 m风速的均方根误差降低44%,2 m气温的均方根误差降低22%,均方根误差均显著减小。对比测站预报误差的水平分布,相似集合方法的应用对于提升非城区站点的10 m风速预报、复杂地形区域的2 m气温预报具有更为明显的效果。相同预报因子的相似集合和支持向量机方法对模式10 m风速和2 m气温预报均具有显著且相似的订正效果,但相似集合方法具有计算资源需求较少、不需要大量人工干预的优势。相似集合方法形成的集合较好地模拟了模式平均误差的增长情况,集合离散度与集合平均均方根误差表现出理想的统计一致性,即相似集合方法在形成确定性预报的同时,还能够提供预报要素的不确定性或概率信息。因此,相似集合方法在模式预报订正及释用方面具有广阔的应用前景。      

Polarized XANES and EXAFS spectroscopic investigation into copper(II) complexes on vermiculite

Interaction of heavy metals with clay minerals can dominate solid-solution reactions in soil, controlling the fate of the metals in the environment. In this study we used powdered and polarized extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy and X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES) to investigate Cu sorbed on Llano vermiculite and compare the results to reported Cu sorption mechanism on Wyoming (WY) smectite and reduced South African (SA) vermiculite. Analysis of the Cu K-edge spectra revealed that Cu sorbed on Llano vermiculite at high ionic strength (I) has the greatest degree of covalent bond character, followed by Cu sorbed on montmorillonite at high I, and Cu sorbed on reduced SA vermiculite at high I. Cu sorbed on clay minerals at low I has the least covalent character. EXAFS data from Cu sorbed Ca- and K-equilibrated Llano vermiculites showed the presence of a second-shell Al, Si, or Mg backscatterer at 3.02 Å. This distance is consistent with Cu sorbing via a corner-sharing monodentate or bidentate bond. Polarized XANES and EXAFS results revealed that the angle between the Cu atom and the mineral sorption sites is 68° with respect to the [001] direction. From the bond angle and the persistence of the second-shell backscatterer when the interlayer is collapsed (K-equilibration), we conclude that Cu adsorption on the Llano vermiculite is not occurring in the interlayer but rather Cu is adsorbing onto the edges of the vermiculite. Results from this research provide evidence that Cu forms inner-sphere and outer-sphere complexes on clay minerals, and does not form the vast multinuclear surface precipitates that have been observed for Co, Zn, and Ni.     

Application of High Spatial Resolution Laser Ablation ICP-MS to Crystal-Melt Trace Element Partition Coefficient Determination

In this contribution we evaluate the capabilities of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) using a 12 μm spot size. Precision, accuracy and detection limits were assessed on the USGS BCR-2G reference material. We demonstrate that the 12 μm LA-ICP-MS analyses of experimentally-grown amphibole and garnet are in excellent agreement with secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) trace element determinations on the same crystals. The 12 μm spot size configuration was subsequently used to determine trace element crystal-melt partition coefficients (D_c/m) for a wide range of trace elements in amphibole in equilibrium with a basanitic melt. The following strategy to determine accurately and evaluate D_c/m is proposed. One or more major elements determined previously by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) was used to ensure consistency between EPMA and the composition of the aerosol produced by the laser ablation. Measured D_c/m values were successively evaluated using the lattice strain model. The use of this strategy significantly improved the precision and accuracy of D_c/m determination when a LA-ICP-MS configuration with a high spatial resolution was employed.     

Incommensurate–normal phase transition in natural melilite: an in situ high-temperature X-ray single-crystal study

The structure of a natural melilite with chemical composition (Ca_1.87Sr_0.02Na_0.10K_0.02)_2.01(Mg_0.96Al_0.07)_1.03(Si_1.98Al_0.02)_2.00O₇ has been investigated by X-ray single-crystal diffraction methods within the temperature range 298–773 K. The values of the coefficient of the modulation wave vector were determined at 298 K, 323 K, 348 K, and 358 K. These values show a continuous linear decrease from 0.2833(6) at 298 K to 0.2763(9) at 358 K. The incommensurate phase undergoes a phase transition to the normal phase at 359 K. The refinements of the structure, carried out at 298 K, 348 K, 359 K, 373 K, 413 K, 463 K, 513 K, 573 K, 673 K, and 773 K, showed that the normal phase (high-temperature phase) does not significantly differ from the basic structure (the average structure of the incommensurate structure). This study confirms that in natural melilites with chemical composition close to that of åkermanite the wavelength of the incommensurate modulation increases when the temperature rises. The different behaviour of the q-vector as a function of temperature in natural and synthetic åkermanite is discussed.     

Impact of ancient metal smelting on arsenic pollution in the Pecora River Valley,Southern Tuscany,Italy

A significant As anomaly has been reported in the literature for stream sediments and unlithified Quaternary deposits of the Pecora River valley in Southern Tuscany, extending from the “Colline Metallifere” pyrite-base metals district to the Tyrrhenian Sea. The As anomaly spreads over several square kilometers around a core that exceeds 500 ppm. Several source contributions (from natural to anthropogenic) have been invoked to explain the observed As distribution in the Pecora Valley, including the metal-working industry which was active in this area, particularly in Etrusco-Roman times and in the Middle Ages. In order to evaluate the contribution of ancient mining and metallurgical activities in the Pecora Valley to elevated As concentrations in the environment, a detailed mineralogical and geochemical survey of metallurgical slags and smelted ore minerals was undertaken from six different sites through the Pecora Valley: Poggio Butelli (Etrusco-Roman iron slags); Sata Creek, Arialla, Marsiliana, Forra and Cascata sites (all Medieval base metals slags). The As content of Etrusco-Roman slags is relatively low (few tens of ppm), whereas Medieval slags show variable, but higher amounts of base metals (±Ag) (ranging from tens to tens of thousands ppm) and As (up to 267 ppm, with average contents of about 40 ppm). Arsenic is mostly partitioned in sulfides disseminated through the glassy groundmass rather than in solid solution with the glassy matrix. Remnants of the ore used for base metal and Ag smelting during the Middle Ages had the highest As contents (up to about 1000 ppm).     

Petrogenesis and geodynamic significance of silicic volcanism in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt: role of gabbroic cumulates

In the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt voluminous silicic volcanism has been associated with the rifting of the Jalisco block from mainland Mexico. Rhyolitic volcanism started at 7.5 Ma after a major pulse of basaltic volcanism aged 11–8.5 Ma associated with slab detachment. This was followed by a second period, between 4.9 and 2.9 Ma, associated with rhyolitic domes and ignimbrite coexisting with basaltic volcanism. The similarity in rare earth element contents between basalts and rhyolites excludes a simple liquid line of descent. The low Ba and Sr contents and the ferroan character of the rhyolites suggest extensive fractional crystallization. Late Miocene–early Pliocene rhyolite Sr isotope values are only slightly more radiogenic than the basalts, whereas Nd isotope ratios are indistinguishable. We successfully modelled the 7.5–3 Ma silicic magmatism as a result of partial melting of crustal gabbroic complexes that we infer to have formed in the mid-lower crust due to the high-density Fe-enriched composition of the late Miocene basaltic volcanism. Slab rollback since ~7.5 Ma favoured decompression melting and arrival of additional mafic magmas that intruded in the lower crust. These basalts heated and melted the gabbroic complexes forming the silicic magmas, which subsequently underwent assimilation and fractional crystallization processes. The first silicic pulse was emplaced during a period of low tectonic activity. Extensional faulting since the Pliocene favours the eruption of both silicic magma and lesser amount of mafic lavas.     

Simulation and modeling of rainfall radar measurements for hydrological applications

A procedure is described for the simulation of rainfall radar reflectivity (absolute and differential) measurements by dual linear polarization meteorological radars. The basic requirement that the proposed procedure aims at satisfying is that radar data obtained at the end of the process be correlated in a physically plausible manner to the rainfall field at ground, the latter being generated by means of a stochastic space-time rainfall model. The main goal of the model is to give the possibility to easily check the accuracy of radar rainfall estimates derived by means of procedures and algorithms aimed at minimizing or compensating for the effects of measurement errors associated with several types of meteorological events, with particular reference to requirements of hydrogeological forecast systems. Within the limits imposed by the validity of the adopted model, an analysis was carried out indicating general criteria that may be adopted to achieve a better accuracy in rainfall estimates and a full exploitation of the advantages offered by the radar dual polarization measurement technique.     

Strange attractors in plagioclase oscillatory zoning: petrological implications

Oscillatory zoning in plagioclase crystals from different mixed lava flows cropping out on the Island of Capraia (Italy) has been investigated. An-calibrated profiles from back-scattered-electron images are used as compositional time series of oscillatory zoning. They are analyzed by a qualitative visual method that allows to appreciate at first sight the global structure of the time series and by a quantitative method to reconstruct the attractors associated to the oscillatory patterns, and to calculate the fractal dimension of attractors. Results show that attractors have fractional dimensions, indicating that series are chaotic. In addition, it is evidenced that there is a wide variation in oscillatory zoning in crystals from the same lava flow and that plagioclase populations from the different lava flows differ in the shape of frequency histograms of attractor dimension. The development of oscillatory zoning is simulated by considering a chemically inhomogeneous magmatic mass governed by chaotic flow fields, coupled with chemical diffusion, in which plagioclase crystals grow according to the availability of nutrients in their neighborhoods. Results show that in such a dynamical system plagioclase crystals develop chaotic zoning patterns analogous to those observed in natural plagioclases. This approach allows us to explain the differences observed in plagioclase crystals from the same lava flow and the differences in the shape of frequency histograms of attractor dimensions in the four lava flows.