Rainfall retention and runoff generation processes in tropical mature green roof ecosystems

Rainfall retention and runoff detention are likely the most important ecosystem services provided by extensive green roofs (EGRs) that contribute to urban stormwater mitigation and management. However, the hydrological performance and runoff generation mechanisms of mature, well-established EGRs in tropical regions remain poorly understood. This study evaluated the rainfall retention, discharge detention times and processes of runoff generation in two neighbouring 20-year-old EGRs with different slopes (2° and 14° for EGRns and EGRws, respectively) and management practices in Mexico City; results were compared with those obtained in a conventional roof (CR, 2° slope). Precipitation, substrate moisture and storm runoff were continuously measured during the 2017 and 2018 rainy seasons (May–November). Results showed spatial differences in substrate properties and moisture within and between green roofs. In general, higher bulk densities and a wide range of variation in water content characterized the bare substrate areas compared to those below vegetation. Greatest increases in substrate moisture and storm runoff were observed in the steeper green roof. Subsurface flow was the dominant process controlling the amount and timing of stormflow in the EGRs. The occurrence of saturation excess overland flow was small and detected when large rain events were preceded by high wetness conditions. The main factors influencing the hydrological responses of the green roofs were their substrate hydrophysical properties, related mostly to vegetation cover, management and age, and to much lesser extent to slope and substrate depth. On average, rainfall retention was ~60% in the EGRs with significantly longer delays and prolonged runoff times (100 and 340 min, respectively) compared to CR (3%, 20 min, and 258 min, respectively). Overall, these findings highlight the potential of EGRs in reducing stormflow and peak discharges for most rainfall in Mexico City, and thus mitigating the risk of saturation and overflow of urban drainages.     

Exploratory analysis of statistical post‐processing methods for hydrological ensemble forecasts

Despite many recent improvements, ensemble forecast systems for streamflow often produce under‐dispersed predictive distributions. This situation is problematic for their operational use in water resources management. Many options exist for post‐processing of raw forecasts. However, most of these have been developed using meteorological variables such as temperature, which displays characteristics very different from streamflow. In addition, streamflow data series are often very short or contain numerous gaps, thus compromising the estimation of post‐processing statistical parameters. For operational use, a post‐processing method has to be effective while remaining as simple as possible. We compared existing post‐processing methods using normally distributed and gamma‐distributed synthetic datasets. To reflect situations encountered with ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow, four normal distribution parameterizations and six gamma distribution parameterizations were used. Three kernel‐based approaches were tested, namely, the ‘best member’ method and two improvements thereof, and one regression‐based approach. Additional tests were performed to assess the ability of post‐processing methods to cope with short calibration series, missing values or small numbers of ensemble members. We thus found that over‐dispersion is best corrected by the regression method, while under‐dispersion is best corrected by kernel‐based methods. This work also shows key limitations associated with short data series, missing values, asymmetry and bias. One of the improved best member methods required longer series for the estimation of post‐processing parameters, but if provided with adequate information, yielded the best improvement of the continuous ranked probability score. These results suggest guidelines for future studies involving real operational datasets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis based on a set of systematic data and a set of historical floods is applied to several Mediterranean catchments. After identification and collection of data on historical floods, several hydraulic models were constructed to account for geomorphological changes. Recent and historical rating curves were constructed and applied to reconstruct flood discharge series, together with their uncertainty. This uncertainty stems from two types of error: (a) random errors related to the water-level readings; and (b) systematic errors related to over- or under-estimation of the rating curve. A Bayesian frequency analysis is performed to take both sources of uncertainty into account. It is shown that the uncertainty affecting discharges should be carefully evaluated and taken into account in the flood frequency analysis, as it can increase the quantiles confidence interval. The quantiles are found to be consistent with those obtained with empirical methods, for two out of four of the catchments.

Citation Neppel, L., Renard, B., Lang, M., Ayral, P.-A., Coeur, D., Gaume, E., Jacob, N., Payrastre, O., Pobanz, K. & Vinet, F. (2010) Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 192–208.     

Comparison of two snowmelt modelling approaches in the Dudh Koshi basin (eastern Himalayas,Nepal)

Abstract

The glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas are retreating due to rising temperatures. Lack of data and information on Nepal’s cryosphere has impeded scientific studies and field investigations in the Nepalese Himalayas. Therefore, IRD France and Ev-K2 CNR Italy have conducted the PAPRIKA (CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources and society adaptation in Nepal) project in Nepal with the financial support of the French and Italian scientific agencies. This project aims to address the current and future evolution of the cryosphere in response to overall environmental changes in South Asia, and its consequences for water resources in Nepal. Thus, two hydrological models, the GR4J lumped precipitation–runoff model and the snowmelt runoff model (SRM), were used in the Dudh Koshi basin. The GR4J model has been successfully applied in different parts of Europe. To obtain better results in such a harsh and rugged topography, modifications needed to be made, particularly in the snow module. The runoff pattern is analysed herein both for past years and, in a sensitivity analysis, for possible future climatic conditions (i.e. precipitation and temperature) using the SRM and GR4J modelling approaches. The results reveal a significant contribution of snow- and glacier-melt to runoff, and the SRM model shows better performance in Nepalese catchments than the GR4J model.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Tectonic and structural evolution of Gough volcano: A volcanological model

Morphostructural, stratigraphic and tectonic data indicate that the evolution of Gough volcano is similar to other oceanic intraplate volcanoes, is older than 1 Ma, and is related to a transform fault. At least six evolutionary stages can be distinguished within two major magmatostructural periods dominated by basaltic and trachytic magmas, respectively.The basaltic shield volcano is characterized by a curved, elongated shape in plan and a rift zone with a high density of dykes, combined with a radial intrusive system. The latter is interpreted as being fed by a magma chamber some 4 km below the surface. The activity of the volcano became more centralized at the end of the basaltic period and its slopes became steeper. This corresponds to the development of a shallower and narrower central conduit in the edifice. The basaltic period was terminated by formation of a shield caldera related to the 4 km deep magma chamber. The term “shield caldera” is used for a collapse structure that is postmagmatic, large in comparison with the diameter of the volcano, and delimited by normal faults that do not show a closed circular pattern but rather a series of arcs. In contrast, summit calderas are defined as smaller, circular-shaped, centrally situated, synmagmatic features, related to a central shallow column. During the basaltic period, landslides were generated on the flanks of the edifice as a result of slope stability factors which are not easy to determine at present, and dynamic factors among which the intrusion of magma along a curved zone certainly played a major role.The trachytic period is characterized by comparatively rare pyroclastic deposits and a large volume of thick flows extruded from domes. These extrusions, as well as plugs, formed from vertical cylindrical columns of magma rising from shallow individual magma pockets fed by the main reservoir.     

A Generalized Structure-Activity Relationship for the Decomposition of (Substituted) Alkoxy Radicals

A novel and readily applicable Structure-Activity Relationship (SAR) for predicting the barrier height E_b to decomposition by C-C scission of (substituted) alkoxy radicals is presented. Alkoxy radicals are pivotal intermediates in the atmospheric oxidation of (biogenic) volatile organic compounds, and their fate is therefore of crucial importance to the understanding of atmospheric VOC degradation mechanisms. The SAR is based on available theoretical energy barriers and validated against barriers derived from experimental data. The SAR is expressed solely in terms of the number(s) N_i of alkyl-, hydroxy- and/or oxo-substituents on the - and -carbons of the breaking bond: E_b(kcal/mol) =17.5 – 2.1 × N(alk) – 3.1 ×N(alk) – 8.0 × N_,(OH) – 8.0 × N(O=) – 12 × N(O=). For barriers below 7 kcal/mol, an additional, second-order term accounts for the curvature. The SAR reproduces the available experimental and theoretical data within 0.5 to 1 kcal/mol. The SAR generally allows conclusive predictions as to the fate of alkoxy radicals; several examples concerning oxy radicals from prominent atmospheric VOC are presented. Specific limitations of the SAR are also discussed. Using the predicted barrier height E_b, the high-pressure rate coefficient for alkoxy decomposition k _diss (298 K) can be obtained from k _diss (298 K) = L ×1.8 × 10¹³ exp(–E_b/RT) s^–1, with L the reaction path degeneracy.     

The Impact of Assimilating Radar-estimated Rain Rates on Simulation of Precipitation in the 17--18 July 1996 Chicago Floods

Rainfall prediction remains one of the most challenging problems in weather forecasting. In order to improve high-resolution quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), a new procedure for assimilating rainfall rate derived from radar composite reflectivity has been proposed and tested in a numerical simulation of the Chicago floods of 17–18 July 1996. The methodology is based on the one-dimensional variation scheme (1DVAR) assimilation approach introduced by Fillion and Errico but applied here using the Ka...     

Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.     

Nitrogen compound emission from biomass burning in tropical African savanna FOS/DECAFE 1991 experiment (Lamto,Ivory Coast)

Gaseous nitrogen compounds (NO _x , NO _y , NH₃, N₂O) were measured at ground level in smoke plumes of prescribed savanna fires in Lamto, in the southern Ivory Coast, during the FOS/DECAFE experiment in January 1991. During the flaming phase, the linear regression between [NO _x ] and [CO₂] (differences in concentration between smoke plumes and atmosheric background) results volumic emission ratio [NO _x ]/[CO₂]=1.37×10^–3 with only slight differences between heading and backing fires. Nearly 90% of the nitrogen oxides are emitted as NO. Average emission ratios of other compounds are: 1.91, 0.047, and 0.145×10^–3 for NO _y , NH₃ and N₂O, respectively. The emission ratios obtained during this field experiment are compred with corresponding values measured during former experiments with the same plant species in combustion chambers. An accurate determination of both the biomass actually burned and of the plant nitrogen content, allows an assessment of emission fluxes of N-compounds from Guinean savanna burns. Preliminary results dealing with the influence of fire on biogenic emissions from soils are also reported.