Developing a novel hybrid model for seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Seismic loss prediction of regional-scale buildings provides key information for disaster management. However, previous seismic loss prediction models ignored...     

黄河中下游活动断层分布及其对古河道变迁的影响

黄河流域是我国遭受地震灾害最为严重的流域,近年来探测工作对黄河中下游的活动断层有较多新认识,如构成北华北盆地与南华北盆地新构造分界的新乡-商丘断裂,新发现存在多个晚更新世活动段,具备发生中强级以上地震的可能,对识别沿黄河中下游的地震危险源、提高地震危险性认识有重要影响。本文通过总结近年来活动断层探测的最新进展,分析了沿黄河中下游地区的活动断层分布特征及其可能产生的灾害影响,并提出后续工作规划建议。     

Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953

Using modern census and environmental factor data,this study first identified the environmental factors that significantly affect the population distribution through Geodetector analysis and then constructed a population spatial distribution model based on the random forest regression algorithm.Finally,with this model and historical population data that were examined and corrected by historians,gridded population distributions with a spatial resolution of 10 km by 10 km in the traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC,hereafter)were reconstructed for six time slices from 1776 to 1953.Using the reconstruction dataset,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution were depicted.The results showed that(1)the environmental factors that significantly affected the population density differences among counties in the TCRC mainly consisted of elevation,slope,relief amplitude,distances to the nearest prefectural and provincial capitals,distance to the nearest river and the climatology moisture index.(2)Using the census data of 1934 counties in the TCRC in 2000 and the abovementioned environmental factor data,a random forest regression algorithm-based population spatial distribution model was constructed.Its determination coefficient(R²)is 0.81.In 88.4%of the counties(districts),the relative errors of the model predictions were less than 50%.(3)From 1776 to 1953,the total population in the study area showed an uptrend.Prior to 1851,the population increased mainly in the Yangtze River Delta.During this period,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km² increased from 292 to 683.From 1851 to 1953,the population increased extensively across the study area.In the North China Plain and the Pearl River Delta,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km² increased from 36 to 88 and from 4 to 35,respectively.The spatial clustering pattern of the population distribution varied temporally.The potential reasons included the shifts in economic development hot spots,traditional beliefs,wars,famine,and immigration policies.(4)Between our reconstructions and the HYDE dataset,there are large differences in the data sources,selected environmental factors and modeling methods.As a consequence,in comparison to our reconstructions,there were fewer populations in the eastern area and more populations in the western area from 1776 to 1851 and more populations in urban areas and fewer populations in rural areas after 1851 in the HYDE dataset.     

Morphological characteristics of homozygous wild rice phytoliths and their significance in the study of rice origins

The analysis of wild rice cell structures,tissues,organs,and other morphological characteristics and the development of identification markers for wild rice are the basis for identifying the origins and evolution of prehistorical rice agriculture.However,contemporary wild rice strains are often subject to gene introgression from domesticated rice cultivated by humans during the evolutionary process,which may affect the accuracy of wild rice identification markers.This means that how to eliminate the effects of gene introgression from domesticated rice and other plants on the identification of origin markers,and the purification of the morphological characteristics of wild rice have become critical in research to identify the origin of rice.In this study,we compared and analysed the phytolith morphologies of three common wild rice species(Oryza rufipogon Griff.)from various habitats and one species of ectopically preserved homozygous common wild rice after six consecutive generations of self-crossing.We found that the morphology of the bulliform phytolith in the homozygous wild rice with reduced domestication gene introgression had three significant differences compared with native wild rice:(1)an overall reduction in size(body length decreased from 41.9μm in VLnativeto 38.6μm in VLhomozygous);(2)an increase in the proportion of the long-stalked phenotype,with the ratio of B/A decreasing from 1.22±0.47 in B/Anativeto 0.92±0.30 in B/Ahomozygous;and(3)a decrease in the number of fish-scale decorations,with the proportion of bulliform phytoliths with≥9 fish-scale decorations reduced from 53.4%in native wild rice to 37.2%in homozygous wild rice.Thus,this study provides a reliable reference for the identification of rice origins using rice phytolith morphology.     

沧县隆起北部地区地热资源特征及开发潜力

【研究目的】地热资源特征研究及开发潜力分析是开发区域地热资源的重要依据。【研究方法】本文将前人研究成果与最新钻井资料相结合,通过对沧县隆起北部地区地热地质背景、热储分布、地温场特征、水化学资源类型等主要因素进行剖析,建立了该区的地热成藏模式。【研究结果】沧县隆起北部地区是在渤海湾伸展型沉积盆地高大地热流值背景下,由北部燕山裸露区基岩接受的大气降水作为近源补给水源,进入基岩的冷水在深层循环过程中受到深部热源加热增温,沿断裂破碎带和不整合面向上运移富集,形成的以传导型传热机制为主的地热系统。【结论】本区地热资源特点为热储类型多、盖层地温梯度高、补给速度快、资源量巨大。主要表现为：区内分布馆陶组砂岩热储,奥陶系、蓟县系雾迷山组岩溶热储三套主力热水储集层;地温场分布主要受基底构造形态控制,基岩凸起区的平均地温梯度为45℃/km;地下水类型随着埋深的增加由HCO₃-Na、HCO₃·SO₄-Na型水向成熟的Cl-Na型水过渡;本区内三套热储的可采地热资源量为1.67×10¹⁰GJ,折合标煤5.72×10⁸t,年可开采地热资源量可满足供暖面积2亿m²,若在采灌平衡的条件下,沧县隆起北部地区年可采地热资源量为7.06×10⁷GJ,折合标煤2.41×10⁶t,可满足供暖面积0.85亿m²,具有良好的地热市场开发前景。     

鄂尔多斯盆地南部延长组长7油组页岩层系天然裂缝发育特征及主控因素

利用地表露头、岩心、薄片和测井资料,对鄂尔多斯盆地南部长7油层组陆相页岩层系天然裂缝的成因类型、发育特征和主控因素进行研究。按地质成因,鄂尔多斯盆地南部长7油层组页岩层系的天然裂缝可以分为构造裂缝和成岩裂缝两大类,其中构造裂缝主要包括剪切裂缝和张性裂缝;成岩裂缝主要包括层理缝、页理缝和收缩裂缝。不同岩性中的天然裂缝发育情况明显不同,致密砂岩中以构造裂缝为主,层理缝仅在粉砂岩和局部细砂岩中发育;页岩和凝灰岩中页理缝、层理缝和构造裂缝均比较发育。不同类型的天然裂缝主控因素明显不同,构造裂缝的发育主要受岩性和岩石力学层层厚控制;砂岩中层理缝的发育主要受碳质纹层、粘土矿物转化程度等因素控制;凝灰岩中层理缝的发育主要受刚性玻屑脱玻化作用的控制;页岩中页理缝的发育主要受纹层、TOC含量和黄铁矿含量的控制。     

河北承德大庙地区元古代的晚期辉长—苏长岩的岩石特征及其成因

河北承德的大庙斜长岩杂岩体是我国著名的岩体型斜长岩杂岩体,其苏长岩可分为两种类型,即早期苏长岩和晚期辉长—苏长岩。早期苏长岩已发生钠长绿帘角闪岩相变质;晚期辉长—苏长岩变质程度较弱,含有斜长石、斜方辉石和单斜辉石巨晶,主要呈岩墙、岩脉或小岩体侵入于斜长岩杂岩体中,与铁磷矿紧密相关。研究表明:晚期辉长—苏长岩主要由中性斜长石、反条纹长石、单斜辉石、斜方辉石、黑云母、磷灰石、钛磁铁矿和磁铁矿等组成,依矿物含量、成分和结构的差异可分为淡色辉长岩、单斜辉石苏长岩、斜方辉石辉长岩以及含铁磷矿对应岩石。其Ba、Sr和轻稀土富集、Eu弱负异常或无异常特征,表明晚期辉长—苏长岩岩浆不是形成斜长岩的基性岩浆,而是经斜长石分离结晶后的残余岩浆。Sr-Nd-Pb同位素地球化学特征显示晚期辉长—苏长岩可能源自EMI富集的岩石圈地幔,与岩体型斜长岩不存在同源岩浆分离结晶演化的关系。大庙地区晚期辉长—苏长岩的岩浆来源、演化和构造控制的特征对深化研究岩体型斜长岩杂岩体的成因有重要意义。     

Analysis and Research on Blasting Network Delay of Deep-Buried Diversion Tunnel Crossing Fault Zone Based on EP-CEEMDAN-INHT

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) of blasting seismic wave monitoring signal with noise can get IMFs with serious modal confusion and endpoint...     

钨矿石和锡矿石化学成分分析能力验证结果评价和离群值原因

金属矿产的勘查、评价、开发与综合利用要求对不同矿石品位与精矿的完整系列品质进行评价检测和仲裁测试。钨矿石和锡矿石作为金属矿的重要矿种,在客观上要求相关实验室应具备不同含量品级钨矿石和锡矿石组分的检测能力。本文按照国家认证认可监督委员会(CNCA)编号为CNCA-13-A14的钨矿石和锡矿石化学成分分析能力验证计划的要求,对中国30个省市、自治区的58个实验室提供的8个元素(W、Sn、Cu、Pb、Zn、Mo、Sb、Bi)的测定结果进行能力验证分析,采用稳健统计法,根据Z比分数判定参加实验室的检测能力。根据Z比分数≤2为满意结果的判定标准,51个实验室全部结果的Z比分数≤2,总体结果满意率(各元素的Z比分数均≤2的实验室占总实验室的比例)为88%,出现可疑和离群结果的实验室占12%。总体上钨矿石和锡矿石中元素Sb、Pb、Zn的满意率较高(其中锡矿石的Zn测定结果全部满意),W、Bi稍差;钨矿石各元素的检测水平差异小,整体结果好于锡矿石。钨矿石和锡矿石分析能力验证结果产生离群值的原因,一方面是实验室的测试水平存在差异;另一方面是各实验室采用的检测方法分散,有化学分析方法和仪器分析方法,化学分析方法检测步骤多,仪器分析方法方便快速,逐渐成为例行检测方法,两类方法的影响因素都较多。本文提出,提高实验室的检测水平和检测能力,需要适当统一检测方法,提高方法掌握的熟练程度,避免仪器状态对分析结果的影响,确保检测结果的一致性和准确性。