Delineating generalized species boundaries from species distribution data and a species distribution model

Species distribution models (SDM) are commonly used to provide information about species ranges or extents, and often are intended to represent the entire area of potential occupancy or suitable habitat in which individuals occur. While SDMs can provide results over various geographic extents, they normally operate within a grid and cannot delimit distinct, smooth boundaries. Additionally, there are instances where a zone of primary occupancy (i.e., a mostly continuous region where species exists, excluding outliers) is better suited for particular analyses, such as when examining source/sink population dynamics or modeling movement into new habitats. We present a semi-automated method to delineate a generalized species boundary (GSB) from SDM output, which provides a practical alternative to digitizing. This preliminary boundary is then manually updated based on inventory data and historical ranges. We used the method to generate contemporary boundaries for 132 tree species of the eastern United States, which are complementary to the ranges generated by Elbert Little for North America during the 1970s, but are not replacements. The methods we present can broadly be applied to other grid-based SDM to generate GSBs.     

Optimization of Subsurface Flow Operations Using a Dynamic Proxy Strategy

Mathematical Geosciences - Machine-learning-based proxy models are often used to replace many of the flow simulations required in optimizations of subsurface flow processes. Because the optimizer...     

Sedimentary Environment Influences Ecosystem Response to Nutrient Enrichment

As coastal catchment land use intensifies, estuaries receive increased nutrient and sediment loads, resulting in habitats that are dominated by muddy organic-rich sediments. Increased mud (i.e. silt-clay (particles <?63 μm)) content has been associated with negative effects on soft sediment biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but the simultaneous impact of nutrient enrichment on ecosystem response is unclear. Nutrient recycling and denitrification in estuarine soft sediments represent important ecosystem functions regenerating nutrients for primary producers and regulating the ability to remove excess terrestrially derived nitrogen. To test the effect of sedimentary environment on ecosystem resilience to nutrient perturbation, we experimentally enriched sediments with slow release fertiliser across an intertidal sedimentary gradient (0–24% mud content). The enrichment successfully elevated pore water ammonium concentrations (median 36?×?control) to levels representative of enriched estuaries. Findings show that the sedimentary environment can influence ecosystem function response to nutrient stress. In particular, denitrification enzyme activity was suppressed by nutrient enrichment, but the effect was greater as sediment mud content increased. Furthermore, compared with sandy sediments, sediments with high mud content may restrict nutrient processing (release, uptake or transformation of organic nutrients by the benthos) facilitating ecosystem shifts toward eutrophication. These results show the value of investigating the impacts of stressors in different environmental settings and demonstrate that land use practices that increase the proportion of muddy habitats in estuaries may reduce denitrification which in turn may reduce ecosystem resilience to eutrophication.     

Statistical assignment of upscaled flow functions for an ensemble of geological models

Upscaled flow functions are often needed to account for the effects of fine-scale permeability heterogeneity in coarse-scale simulation models. We present procedures in which the required coarse-scale flow functions are statistically assigned to an ensemble of upscaled geological models. This can be viewed as an extension and further development of a recently developed ensemble level upscaling (EnLU) approach. The method aims to efficiently generate coarse-scale flow models capable of reproducing the ensemble statistics (e.g., cumulative distribution function) of fine-scale flow predictions for multiple reservoir models. The most expensive part of standard coarsening procedures is typically the generation of upscaled two-phase flow functions (e.g., relative permeabilities). EnLU provides a means for efficiently generating these upscaled functions using stochastic simulation. This involves the use of coarse-block attributes that are both fast to compute and correlate closely with the upscaled two-phase functions. In this paper, improved attributes for use in EnLU, namely the coefficient of variation of the fine-scale single-phase velocity field (computed during computation of upscaled absolute permeability) and the integral range of the fine-scale permeability variogram, are identified. Geostatistical simulation methods, which account for spatial correlations of the statistically generated upscaled functions, are also applied. The overall methodology thus enables the efficient generation of coarse-scale flow models. The procedure is tested on 3D well-driven flow problems with different permeability distributions and variable fluid mobility ratios. EnLU is shown to capture the ensemble statistics of fine-scale flow results (water and oil flow rates as a function of time) with similar accuracy to full flow-based upscaling methods but with computational speedups of more than an order of magnitude.     

A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere

A scheme for the representation of the vertical eddy fluxes of heat, momentum and water vapour in a forecast model is presented. An important feature of the scheme is the dependence of the diffusion coefficients on the static stability of the atmosphere. Two tests are presented, using the scheme in a one-dimensional model: the simulation of the diurnal cycle, and the transformation of a polar air mass moving over the warm sea.     

Variability in the annual cycle of vertical particulate organic carbon export on Arctic shelves: Contrasting the Laptev Sea,Northern Baffin Bay and the Beaufort Sea

The ongoing regression of sea ice cover is expected to significantly affect the fate of organic carbon over the Arctic continental shelves. Long-term moored sediment traps were deployed in 2005–2006 in the Beaufort Sea, Northern Baffin Bay and the Laptev Sea to compare the annual variability of POC fluxes and to evaluate the factors regulating the annual cycle of carbon export over these continental shelves. Annual POC fluxes at 200 m ranged from 1.6 to 5.9 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ with the highest export in Northern Baffin Bay and the lowest export over the Mackenzie Shelf in the Beaufort Sea. Each annual cycle exhibited an increase in POC export a few weeks before, during, or immediately following sea ice melt, but showed different patterns over the remainder of the cycle. Enhanced primary production, discharge of the Lena River, and resuspension events contributed to periods of elevated POC export over the Laptev Sea slope. High POC fluxes in Northern Baffin Bay reflected periods of elevated primary production in the North Water polynya. In the Beaufort Sea sediment resuspension contributed to most of the large export events. Our results suggest that the outer shelf of the Laptev Sea will likely sustain the largest increase in POC export in the next few years due to the large reduction in ice cover and the possible increase in the Lena River discharge. The large differences in forcing among the regions investigated reinforce the importance of monitoring POC fluxes in the different oceanographic regimes that characterize the Arctic shelves to assess the response of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle to interannual variability and climate change.     

Erosion of the eastern United States observed with 10Be

The problem of identifying areas of accelerated erosion in a dynamic landscape is complicated. The limited history of sediment yield measurements makes this task difficult even if geomorphic evidence is available. Beryllium-10, a cosmogenic isotope produced by cosmic rays interacting with the earth's atmosphere and surface, has chemical and physical properties that make it useful as a tracer for erosion and sediment transport processes. The rarity of the stable isotope, ⁹Be, allows ¹⁰Be to be detected with accelerator mass spectrometry in natural materials at extremely low levels. Backgrounds for rocks and sediments below 10⁵ atom per g are now attainable, a value to be compared with an average deposition rate of 1.3 × 10⁶ atom cm^?2 yr^?1. The affinity of Be for the components of soil and sediment is sufficiently high that it is effectively immobilized on contact, thereby allowing ¹⁰Be to function as a tracer of sediment transport. To a good approximation all the ¹⁰Be transport out of a drainage basin is on the sediment leaving it. The number of ¹⁰Be atoms passing the gauging station can be determined by measuring the concentration of the isotope in the sediment, if the annual sediment load is known. The ratio of the ¹⁰Be carried from the basin by the sediment to that incident upon it, called the erosion index, has been determined for 48 drainage basins within the same physiographic province, which allows them to be reasonably compared, all of which have sediment yield data. Basins located in the Atlantic coastal plain have an average index of 0.3 with the maximum observed being 0.9. Basins located between the fall line and the mountains, a region called the Piedmont, have an average value of 2.2 with individual values ranging from 0.6 to 6.7; this marked difference is thought to result from two centuries of farming on land of moderate gradient. Basins in the highland regions reflect local conditions with low indices for those in grass and timber and high indices associated with destructive land use. The data allow an estimate of the erosion index for the pre-colonial Piedmont, which then allows the pre-colonial sediment yield to be calculated. A number of basins have also been examined world wide with similar conclusions derived. An important deviation from the rule is noted for rivers that erode large regions of loess, such as the Mississippi, Hwang Ho, and Yangtze. Large aeolian deposits were laid down during the ice age in these basins, deposits that brought inherited ¹⁰Be with them and that are easily eroded.