Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems

Detailed interviews were conducted with 11 leading ecologists to obtainindividualqualitative and quantitative estimates of the likely impact of a2 × [CO₂] climate change onminimally disturbed forest ecosystems. Results display a much richer diversityof opinion thanis apparent in qualitative consensus summaries, such as those of the IPCC.Experts attachdifferent relative importance to key factors and processes such as soilnutrients, fire, CO₂fertilization, competition, and plant-pest-predator interactions. Assumptionsand uncertaintiesabout future fire regimes are particularly crucial. Despite these differences,most of the expertsbelieve that standing biomass in minimally disturbed Northern forests wouldincrease and soilcarbon would decrease. There is less agreement about impacts on carbon storagein tropicalforests. Estimates of migration rates in northern forests displayed a rangeof more than fourorders of magnitude. Estimates of extinction rates and dynamic response showsignificantvariation between experts. A series of questions about research needs foundconsensus on theimportance of expanding observational and experimental work on ecosystemprocesses and ofexpanding regional and larger-scale observational, monitoring and modelingstudies. Results ofthe type reported here can be helpful in performing sensitivity analysis inintegrated assessmentmodels, as the basis for focused discussions of the state of currentunderstanding and researchneeds, and, if repeated over time, as a quantitative measure of progress inthis and other fieldsof global change research.     

Germanium-silicon fractionation in the weathering environment

We present a detailed study of germanium behavior in the soil weathering environment as an important step toward using the Ge/Si system as a tracer of silicate weathering processes in both modern and ancient environments. Intensely weathered soils developed on Hawaiian basalts have bulk soil Ge/Si ratios 2 to 10 times higher than fresh basalt (e.g., 10 to 25 μmol/mol vs. 2.5 μmol/mol). Soil Ge concentrations increase with Si, and decrease with Fe, suggesting that Ge sequestration is related to accumulation of secondary soil silicates, rather than retention in soil Fe oxy-hydroxides. Sequential extractions of these soils suggest that Ge/Si fractionation takes place by Ge sequestration during the initial precipitation of secondary soil aluminosilicates (principally allophane). Further Si loss and changes in mineralogy as these soils age result in little additional Ge/Si fractionation. Ge/Si ratios in granitic soils and saprolites are strongly influenced by relative weathering rates of primary minerals. Kaolinite has a Ge/Si ratio (5.9 μmol/mol) higher than the plagioclase from which it forms (3.1 μmol/mol), whereas accumulation of primary quartz (Ge/Si 0.5 μmol/mol) prevents granitic soils from attaining high Ge/Si ratios. Laboratory synthesis of allophane confirms that Ge is preferentially partitioned into the solid phase upon precipitation of secondary aluminosilicates from solution.     

The Precision and Sensitivity of Thermal Ionisation Mass Spectrometry (TIMS): An Overview of the Present Status

This paper illustrates that sample size cannot be reduced below a theoretical limit and still achieve the highest precision obtainable on modern mass spectrometers. Reproducibility at the few ppm level is achievable and is related essentially to ion counting statistics. The number of atoms necessary to carry out such measurements is related directly to the sensitivity of the instrumentation. As most of the elements of interest are not major constituents of natural silicates, a lower limit to the size of the starting sample is assessed. Even for a number of elements for which very high ion per atom yields are attained by TIMS, minimum sample mass is an important limiting factor for precious or rare samples and may reduce the scientific output of experiments or place a major constraint on the sampling strategy itself. For rare meteorites or individual Martian samples expected to be returned in amounts at the gramme scale for rocks or at the microgramme scale for dust, the high sensitivity of TIMS is a requirement. Nevertheless, a compromise has to be found between sample consumption and the minimal desirable precision for a useful isotopic measurement.     

Laboratory simulation of diffusion in contaminated marine sediments

Wastes from offshore oil drilling activities are often discharged to the marine environment. Solid wastes that settle onto the bottom sediment may pose a health threat to marine organisms and eventually to man through the food chain. We need to understand their fate in order to predict the chemical concentration levels and life-times in the sediment and adjoining aquatic boundary layer. A laboratory simulation of selected in-bed processes that addresses contaminant leaching from the sediment is proposed. The process chosen for simulation in this study is the coupled desorption-diffusion of contaminants from the bed to the water column. A simple mathematical model of the process is also proposed. Preliminary results using organic chemicals for both the simulation and the model are presented. The results suggest that the experimental procedure represents a good way of estimating the diffusive leaching rates of hydrophobic compounds from contaminated sediments.     

Patterns of Holocene environmental change in the midwestern United States

Four pollen sequences along a transect from north-central Iowa to southeast Wisconsin reveal the distribution of prairie and forest during the Holocene and test the use of pollen isopolls in locating the Holocene prairie-forest border. Prairie was dominant in central Iowa and climate was drier than present from about 8000 to 3000 yr B.P. During the driest part of this period in central Iowa (6500-5500 yr B.P.), mesic forest prevailed in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin, suggesting conditions wetter than at present. Prairie replaced the mesic forest about 5400 yr B.P. in eastern Iowa but did not extend much farther east; mesic forests were replaced in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois about 5400 yr B.P. by xeric oak forests. This change from mesic to xeric conditions at 5400 yr B.P. was widespread and suggests that the intrusion of drier Pacific air was blocked by maritime tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico until the late Holocene in this area.     

Notes sur la Géochimie du Pétrole

Résumé L'altération naturelle d'un pétrole de base mixte des couches de Péchelbronn et d'un pétrole de base paraffinique de Staffelfelden produit un asphalte de base naphténique. Dans le fossé rhénan il existe un groupe d'huiles brutes mixtes dans les formations post-jurassiques et un groupe de pétroles paraffiniques dans les formations antejurassiques.