Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979–2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500?hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1173-3), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well.     

Groundwater-wetland ecosystem interaction in the semiarid glaciated plains of North America

The prairie wetlands of northern USA and Canada exist in numerous topographical depressions within the glaciated landscape. The wetlands are disconnected from each other most of the time with respect to surface-water drainage. The wetland water balance is controlled by snowmelt runoff and snowdrift from the surrounding uplands, precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater exchange, and occasional “fill-spill” connections to other wetlands. Salinity of water and the seasonal variability of water level in these wetlands have a strong influence on the ecosystem. Clay-rich glacial tills, covering much of the region, have very low (0.001–0.01 m/yr) hydraulic conductivity, except for the top several meters where the factures and macropores increase conductivity up to 1,000 m/yr. Transpiration in the wetland margin induces infiltration and lateral flow of shallow groundwater from wetland ponds through the high-conductivity zone, which strongly affects the water balance of wetlands. In contrast, groundwater flow in the deeper low-conductivity till has minor effects on water balance, but has a strong influence on salinity because the flow direction determines if the salts accumulate in wetlands (upward flow) or are leached out (downward flow) under wetlands. Understanding of the roles of shallow and deep groundwater systems will improve the hydrological conceptual framework for the management of wetland ecosystems.     

Rates of fluvial bedrock incision within an actively uplifting orogen: Central Karakoram Mountains, northern Pakistan

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) ¹⁰Be surface exposure ages for strath terraces along the Braldu River in the Central Karakoram Mountains range from 0.8 to 11 ka. This indicates that strath terrace formation began to occur rapidly upon deglaciation of the Braldu valley at  11 ka. Fluvial incision rates for the Braldu River based on the TCN ages for strath terraces range from 2 to 29 mm/a. The fluvial incision rates for the central gorged section of the Braldu River are an order of magnitude greater than those for the upper and lower reaches. This difference is reflected in the modern stream gradient and valley morphology. The higher incision rates in the gorged central reach of the Braldu River likely reflect differential uplift above the Main Karakoram Thrust that has resulted in the presence of a knickpoint and more rapid fluvial incision. The postglacial fluvial incision rate (2–3 mm/a) for the upper and lower reaches are of the same order of magnitude as the exhumation rates estimated from previously published thermochronological data for the Baltoro granite in the upper catchment region and for the adjacent Himalayan regions.     

The physico-chemical conditions of Turkwel Gorge Reservoir, a new man made lake in Northern Kenya

Variations in some physical, chemical, and nutrient conditions were investigated at Turkwel Gorge Reservoir and its inflowing river, Suam between 1994 and 1995. Seasonal changes in inflow volume had the greatest impact on the reservoir and river conditions investigated. A wide fluctuation in inflow volume combined with a regulated outflow independent of season resulted in a draw down of over 10 m in each year. Flood inflows during the wet season resulted in the lowest values of Secchi depth (range, 0.09–2.16 m), electrical conductivity (EC, range = 140–200 mS cm⁻¹) and total alkalinity (TA, range = 75–111 mg l⁻¹) while the highest values were measured during the dry season. A functional relation between EC and TA (TA = 0.529 mg l⁻¹, EC: R² = 0.876) suggests a predominance of carbonates among the anions. Vertical profiles of temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) revealed that the reservoir is monomictic with a wide variation in the depth of the daily mixed layer. High values of pH (range = 6.7–8.9) and DO (range = 4.9–9.2 mg l⁻¹) were associated with periods of peak phytoplankton photosynthesis while the lowest values followed reservoir mixing. Peak total nitrogen (TN, range = 119–526 μg l⁻¹) and total phosphorus (TP, range = 8.9–71.6 μg l⁻¹) levels during the wet season resulted from increased river loading. Values of dissolved reactive silica (DRS, range = 0.41–9.77 mg l⁻¹) showed a wet season decline which was related to diatom depletion during the wet season. Annual reservoir areal loading rates of 27.38, 10.90 and 408.5 mg m⁻² were computed for TN, TP and DRS respectively based on estimates of inflowing river loads in 1994.

At the inflowing river Suam, low levels of EC (range = 107–210 μS cm⁻¹) and TA (range = 62–125 mg l⁻¹) occurred during the wet season while the highest levels occurred shortly before the river dried up. The first flood water at the resumption of river inflow in March was characterized by very low levels of DO (range = 1.8–8.2 mg l⁻¹) and high levels of TN (range = 205–3354 μg l⁻¹) and TP (102–1259 μg l⁻¹). River pII (6.9–7.7) and DRs (range = 9.01–19.93 mg l⁻¹) varied irregularly throughout the year.     

Two distinct Miocene age ranges of basaltic rocks from the Rhön and Heldburg areas (Germany) based on Ar/Ar step heating data

New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data are determined for Cenozoic basaltic rocks from the Thuringian Rhön and Heldburg Gangschar (area also referred to as Grabfeld), integral parts of the Central European Volcanic Province. Applying the incremental heating technique on groundmass and plagioclase separates provided data which considerably specify our knowledge on the eruption ages in these volcanic fields and narrow down the duration of volcanic activity compared to earlier studies. All data but one outlier range between 20 and 14 Ma, being thus similar to those of the neighbouring Vogelsberg volcanic complex. The spectrum of ages is clearly divided into two distinct subsets: the Rhön ages are between 20 and 18 Ma, those of the Heldburg Gangschar are between 16 and 14 Ma. Thus, the present data clearly indicate a striking regional and temporal division of the Thuringian Miocene volcanism. The composition of the volcanic rocks in the two volcanic fields is remarkably diverse, ranging from tholeiitic basalts over alkali basalts and basanites to nephelinites. However, radiometric ages do not correlate with geochemical or petrological characteristics of the volcanics within each volcanic field, indicating that the different magma types erupted broadly contemporaneously.The outlier in age (29 Ma) is from a volcanic dyke of the NE Rhön area close to the NW end of the Thuringian Forest. However, more data are required to approve the significance of this age value, in particular since the rock showed isotopic age disturbance.     

Foraminiferal depth palaeoecology of Late Pliocene shelf sequences and systems tracts, Wanganui Basin, New Zealand

High-resolution foraminiferal census of benthic taxa was undertaken on 113 closely spaced samples drawn from the Late Pliocene (ca. 2.6−1.7 Ma) cyclothemic marine strata of the Rangitikei Group, eastern Wanganui Basin, New Zealand. These strata comprise a ca. 1 km thick progradational stack of twenty, sixth-order, depositional sequences that accumulated in shelf and shoreline palaeoenvironments. The sequences are correlated with δ¹⁸O Stages 100−58, and each 41 ka glaciallinterglacial stage couplet is represented by an individual sequence comprising transgressive (TST), highstand (HST), and regressive (RST) systems tracts.

Statistical analysis of the census data identifies thirteen foraminiferal associations within the cyclothemic strata, that are grouped into seven depth- and lithology-related biofacies spanning the entire range of marginal marine to outer shelf palaeoenvironments. Foraminiferal palaeobathymetric analysis of the Rangitikei Group sequences reveals cyclical changes in water-depth of ca. 100–200 m amplitude with frequencies corresponding to the 41 ka obliquity orbital rhythm. Water-depth changes of this magnitude are consistent with a glacio-eustatic origin for the cyclothems, which correspond to an interval of Earth's history when successive continental glaciations of the Northern Hemisphere are known to have occurred. Furthermore the derived water-depth changes are also consistent with lithofacies and sequence stratigraphic inferences regarding palaeodepth of the sequences.

Individual sequences display a clear deepening-upward trend from shoreline to mid-shelf water-depths within TSTs. The level of resolution provided by the microfaunal analysis was insufficient to resolve the precise position of the maximum flooding surface (MFS) and its relationship to the downlap surface (DLS). However, the turn around from rising to falling relative sea level (maximum water-depth) corresponds to a < 5 m interval of section spanning the top of TSTs and lower portions of HST's. A progressive shoaling trend to shoreline and marginal marine environments is indicated for the overlying RSTs.

The amplitudes of water-depth changes for asymmetrical sequences, Rangitikei_nt motif (nondepositional transgression) (100–200 m), are somewhat greater than glacio-eustatic sea-level changes derived from the deep-sea δ¹⁸O record (50–100 m). This implies a significant subsidence contribution to relative sea-level changes. Notwithstanding the effect of subsidence and sedimentation on relative sea level, fluctuations in glacio-eustatic sea level are regarded as the primary factor controlling relative sea-level changes recorded in the Late Pliocene Wanganui Basin succession. Foraminifer-derived palaeobathymetric cycles within sequences display the same frequency, relative magnitude and symmetry as their correlative cycles on the δ¹⁸O sea-level curve.     

Quaternary glacial history of the Central Karakoram

The Quaternary glacial history of the world's highest mountains, the Central Karakoram, is examined for the first time using geomorphic mapping of landforms and sediments, and ¹⁰Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of boulders on the moraines and glacially eroded surfaces. Four glacial stages are defined: the Bunthang glacial stage (>0.7 Ma); the Skardu glacial stage (marine Oxygen Isotope Stage [MIS] 6 or older); the Mungo glacial stage (MIS 2); and the Askole glacial stage (Holocene). Glaciers advanced several times during each glacial stage. These advances are not well defined for the oldest glacial stages, but during the Mungo and Askole glacial stages glacial advances likely occurred at 16, 11–13, 5 and 0.8 ka. The extent of glaciation in this region became increasingly more restricted over time. In the Braldu and Shigar valleys, glaciers advanced >150 km during the Bunthang and Skardu glacial stages, while glaciers advanced >80 km beyond their present positions during the Mungo glacial stage. In contrast, glaciers advanced a few kilometers from present ice margins during the Askole glacial stage. Glacier in this region likely respond in a complex fashion to the same forcing that causes changes in Northern Hemisphere oceans and ice sheets, teleconnected via the mid-latitude westerlies, and also to changes in monsoonal intensity.     

Late. Oligocene Pacific-wide tectonic event

Stratigraphic and structural changes, radiometrically and biostratigraphically dated, from basins and basement across New Zealand, indicate that the modern Australia-Pacific plate boundary, including the Alpine fault sector, formed between 28 and 24 Ma. This age range coincides with changes at about 25 Ma in the trends of the Hawaiian and Louisville hotspot chains, and a 27–25 Ma reorganization of spreading on the Antarctic-Pacific spreading ridge. It also follows closely the 28.5 Ma initiation of subduction of the East Pacific Rise south of Mendocino fracture zone that lead to formation of the San Andreas continental transform. The late Oligocene Pacific-wide tectonic reorganization may have been triggered by this ridge-trench collision.