An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flushing of dense, hypoxic water from a cavity of the Swan River estuary, Western Australia

Flushing of dense water from cavities of the upper reaches of the Swan River estuary in Western Australia was investigated using measured salinity and dissolved oxygen profiles and a two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic model (TISAT). Seasonal flushing of dense, hypoxic bottom waters from a relatively deep site took place over ∼3 days at the onset of winter in 1994. Model simulations of the purging of this dense water did not correspond closely with changes in the densimetric Froude number. Purging, expressed as depth of the halocline as a fraction of the total cavity depth, occurred when the simulated mean horizontal velocity at 2 m depth (top of cavity) changed from negative to strongly positive, indicating arrest of upstream flow and continuous downstream flow. This corresponded to freshwater discharge of about 50 m³ s⁻¹. Oxygen depletion of bottom waters was closely related to stratification. Oxygen dynamics at the onset of winter river flow was analysed using an exponential decay model, assuning that there was no net inflow or outflow across the halocline and thus no vertical transport of oxygen during a period of strong stratification. The rate constant for oxygen decay at Ron Courtney Island (RCI) was estimated to be 0.232 d⁻¹ for this period. Bottom waters at RCI declined to less than 1 mg 1⁻¹ prior to complete flushing through increased river flows. This study provided in sights to how freshwater flows may be allocated to maintain suitable oxygen levels in the bottom waters of estuarine cavities.     

Tectonic controls on metamorphism, partial melting, and intrusion: timing and duration of regional metamorphism and magmatism in the Ni de Massif, Turkey

Mafic high-pressure granulite, eclogite and pyroxenite xenoliths have been collected from a Mesozoic volcaniclastic diatreme in Xinyang, near south margin of the Sino-Korean Craton (SKC). The high-pressure granulite xenoliths are mainly composed of fine-grained granoblasts of Grt+Cpx+Pl+Hbl±Kfs±Q±Ilm with relict porphyritic mineral assemblage of Grt+Cpx±Pl±Rt. P–T estimation indicates that the granoblastic assemblage crystallized at 765–890 °C and 1.25–1.59 GPa, corresponding to crustal depths of ca. 41–52 km with a geotherm of 75–80 mW/m². Calculated seismic velocities (V_p) of high-pressure granulites range from 7.04 to 7.56 km/s and densities (D) from 3.05 to 3.30 g/cm³. These high-pressure granulite xenoliths have different petrographic and geochemical features from the Archean mafic granulites. Elevated geotherm and petrographic evidence imply that the lithosphere of this craton was thermally disturbed in the Mesozoic prior to eruption of the host diatreme. These samples have sub-alkaline basaltic compositions, equivalent to olivine– and quartz–tholeiite. REE patterns are flat to variably LREE-enriched (La_N/Yb_N=0.98–9.47) without Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*=0.95–1.11). They possess 48–127 ppm Ni and 2–20 ppm Nb with Nb/U and La/Nb ratios of 13–54 and 0.93–4.75, respectively, suggesting that these high-pressure granulites may be products of mantle-derived magma underplated and contaminated at the base of the lower crust. This study also implies that up to 10 km Mesozoic lowermost crust was delaminated prior to eruption of the Cenozoic basalts on the craton.     

Evidence for a large surface ablation zone in central East Antarctica during the last Ice Age

Internal isochronous ice sheet layers, recorded by airborne ice-penetrating radar, were measured along an ice flowline across a large (>1 km high) subglacial hill in the foreground of the Transantarctic Mountains. The layers, dated through an existing stratigraphic link with the Vostok ice core, converge with the ice surface as ice flows over the hill without noticeable change to their separation with each other or the ice base. A two-dimensional ice flow model that calculates isochrons and particle flowpaths and accounts for ice flow over the hill under steady-state conditions requires net ablation (via sublimation) over the stoss face for the predicted isochrons to match the measured internal layers. Satellite remote sensing data show no sign of exposed ancient ice at this site, however. Given the lack of exposed glacial ice, surface balance conditions must have changed recently from the net ablation that is predicted at this site for the last 85,000 years to accumulation.     

U–Pb ages of Neoarchean granitoids from the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA: implications for crustal evolution in the Archean Wyoming province

Zircons in basement rocks from the eastern Wyoming province (Black Hills, South Dakota, USA) have been analyzed by ion microprobe (SHRIMP) in order to determine precise ages of Archean tectonomagmatic events. In the northern Black Hills (NBH) near Nemo, Phanerozoic and Proterozoic (meta)sedimentary rocks are nonconformably underlain by Archean biotite–feldspar gneiss (BFG) and Little Elk gneissic granite (LEG), both of which intrude older schists. The Archean granitoid gneisses exhibit a pervasive NW–SE-trending fabric, whereas an earlier NE–SW-trending fabric occurs sporadically only in the BFG, which is intruded by the somewhat younger LEG. Zircon crystals obtained from the LEG and BFG exhibit double terminations, oscillatory zoning, and Th/U ratios of 0.6±0.3—thereby confirming a magmatic origin for both lithologies. In situ analysis of the most U–Pb concordant domains yields equivalent ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages (upper intercept, U–Pb concordia) of 2559±6 and 2563±6 Ma (both ±2σ) for the LEG and BFG, respectively, which constrains a late Neoarchean age for sequential pulses of magmatism in the NBH. Unzoned (in BSE) patches of 2560 Ma zircon commonly truncate coeval zonation in the same crystals with no change in Th/U ratio, suggesting that deuteric, fluid-assisted recrystallization accompanied post-magmatic cooling. A xenocrystic core of magmatic zircon observed in one LEG zircon yields a concordant age of 2894±6 Ma (±2σ). This xenocryst represents the oldest crustal material reported thus far in the Black Hills. Whether this older zircon originated as unmelted residue of 2900 Ma crust that potentially underlies the Black Hills or as detritus derived from 2900 Ma crustal sources in the Wyoming province cannot be discerned. In the southern Black Hills (SBH), the peraluminous granite at Bear Mountain (BMG) of previously unknown age intrudes biotite–plagioclase schist. Zircon crystals from the BMG are highly metamict and altered, but locally preserve small domains suitable for in situ analysis. A U–Pb concordia upper intercept age of 2596±11 Ma (±2σ) obtained for zircon confirms both the late Neoarchean magmatic age of the BMG and a minimum age for the schist it intrudes. Taken together, these data indicate that the Neoarchean basement granitoids were emplaced at 2590–2600 Ma (SBH) and 2560 Ma (NBH), most likely in response to subduction associated with plate convergence (final assembly of supercontinent Kenorland?). In contrast, thin rims present on some LEG–BFG zircons exhibit strong U–Pb discordance, high common Pb, and low Th/U ratios—suggesting growth or modification under hydrothermal conditions, as previously suggested for similar zircons from SE Wyoming. The LEG–BFG zircon rims yield a nominal upper intercept date of 1940–2180 Ma, which may represent a composite of multiple rifting events known to have affected the Nemo area between 2480 and 1960 Ma. Together, these observations confirm the existence of a Paleoproterozoic rift margin along the easternmost Wyoming craton. Moreover, the 2480–1960 Ma time frame inferred for rifting in the Black Hills (Nemo area) corresponds closely to a 2450–2100 Ma time frame previously inferred for the fragmentation of supercontinent Kenorland.     

Metal binding to dissolved organic matter and adsorption to ferrihydrite in shallow peat groundwaters: Application to diamond exploration in the James Bay Lowlands,Canada

The speciation and solubility of kimberlite pathfinder metals (Ni, Nd, Ba and K) in shallow peat groundwaters is investigated over the Yankee, Zulu and Golf kimberlites in the Attawapiskat region, James Bay Lowlands, Canada. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between dissolved organic matter (DOM) complexation with kimberlite pathfinder metals and determine the spatial distribution of those metals in shallow peat groundwaters along sampling transects over subcropping kimberlites. Nickel, Nd, Ba and K complexation with DOM and the adsorption of these metals onto ferrihydrite were calculated using Visual MINTEQ 3.0 and the NICA-Donnan database. Calculations predict almost 100% of soluble Nd, Ni and Ba form complexes with DOM at sampling sites with little to no contribution from upwelling groundwater (i.e., dissolved organic C (DOC) concentrations = 40–132 mg/L, pH = 3.9–5.5, and log ionic strength ??3). In only the most ombrotrophic peat groundwater conditions does a majority fraction of K bind to DOM. By contrast, under conditions with large contributions from upwelling groundwaters (i.e., DOC concentrations ?40 mg/L, pH = 5.5–6.5, and log ionic strength = ?3 to ?2), as little as 10% of Nd and Ni, and 0% K and Ba are predicted to complex with DOM. The modeling calculations suggest the dominant control on metal–DOM complexation, particularly with respect to Ni and Nd, is competitive effects for DOM binding sites due to elevated ionic strength where there is evidence of strong groundwater upwelling. Visual MINTEQ modeling of metal adsorption on ferrihydrite surfaces predicts that under strong upwelling conditions, Ni and Nd are scavenged from solution due to increased ferrihydrite precipitation and decreased fractions of metals complexed with DOM. Analytical geochemical data are consistent with model predictions of metal adsorption on ferrihydrite. Total dissolved Ni and Nd concentrations at sites of strong upwelling are up to five times lower than waters with little to no upwelling and log ferrihydrite saturation indices (logSI_ferr) indicate precipitation (values up to 5) at sites of strong groundwater upwelling. Where the majority of Ni and Nd complex with DOM and ferrihydrite is highly under saturated (logSI_ferr = ?18 to ?5), the concentrations of total Ni and Nd are elevated compared to other sites along sampling transects. Metal complexation with DOM effectively inhibits metal scavenging from solution via adsorption and/or from forming secondary mineral precipitates. Also, because alkaline earth metals do not compete strongly with Ni and Nd for adsorption sites on ferrihydrite surfaces, but do compete strongly for insoluble organic sites, Ni and Nd are more likely to adsorb onto ferrihydrite.     

Centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene oceanographic variability in Disko Bugt,West Greenland

A new centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off West Greenland (Disko Bugt) highlights substantial subsurface water mass changes (e.g. temperature and salinity) of the West Greenland Current (WGC) over the past 3.6 ka BP. Benthic foraminifera reveal a long-term late Holocene cooling trend, which may be attributed to increased advection of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the East Greenland Current (EGC). Cooling becomes most pronounced from c. 1.7 ka BP onwards. At this point the calcareous Atlantic benthic foraminiferal fauna decrease significantly and is replaced by an agglutinated Arctic fauna. Superimposed on this cooling trend, centennial scale variability in the WGC reveals a marked cold phase at c. 2.5 ka BP, which may correspond to the 2.7 ka BP cooling-event recorded in marine and terrestrial archives elsewhere in the North Atlantic region. A warm phase recognized at c. 1.8 ka BP is likely to correspond to the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and represents the warmest bottom water conditions. During the time period of the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ we observe only a slight warming of the WGC. A progressively more dominant cold water contribution from the EGC on the WGC is documented by the prominent rise in abundance of agglutinated Arctic water species from 0.9 ka BP onwards. This cooling event culminates at c. 0.3 ka BP and represents the coldest episode of the ‘Little Ice Age’.Gradually increased influence of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the EGC may be linked to enhanced advection of Polar and Arctic water by the EGC. These changes are possibly associated with a reported shift in the large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric circulation pattern towards a more frequent negative North Atlantic Oscillation mode during the late Holocene.     

Aspects of wave behaviour in the mid‐ and upper troposphere of the southern Hemisphere

Abstract

The zonal wavenumber spectra of the geopotential heights of the 300‐ and 500‐mb surfaces in the Southern Hemisphere were determined for each month between May 1972 and November 1979 using daily operational analyses produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. During over one‐quarter of the “summer” months (November through March) there are very prominent peaks at zonal wavenumber five in the region of the mid‐latitude jet (～35–60°S). Frequently wavenumber five totally dominates the eddy fields in individual daily maps so that height contours in mid‐latitudes take on virtually pentagonal shapes. During periods when wavenumber 5 is prominent, it is observed to propagate eastward in a very regular manner with a period of about eleven days. All these findings are consistent with Salby's (1982) earlier results concerning the Southern Hemisphere height fields during the first few months of the FGGE experiment.

There is little evidence for a similar phenomenon in the winter circulation of the Southern Hemisphere.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.