Flood forecasting in large rivers with data-driven models

Results from the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast water levels at 3 stations along the mainstream of the Lower Mekong River are reported in this paper. The study investigated the effects of including water levels from upstream stations and tributaries, and rainfall as inputs to ANFIS models developed for the 3 stations. When upstream water levels in the mainstream were used as input, improvements to forecasts were realized only when the water levels from 1 or at most 2 upstream stations were included. This is because when there are significant contributions of flow from the tributaries, the correlation between the water levels in the upstream stations and stations of interest decreases, limiting the effectiveness of including water levels from upstream stations as inputs. In addition, only improvements at short lead times were achieved. Including the water level from the tributaries did not significantly improve forecast results. This is attributed mainly to the fact that the flow contributions represented by the tributaries may not be significant enough, given that there could be large volume of flow discharging directly from the catchments which are ungauged, into the mainstream. The largest improvement for 1-day forecasts was obtained for Kratie station where lateral flow contribution was 17 %, the highest for the 3 stations considered. The inclusion of rainfall as input resulted in significant improvements to long-term forecasts. For Thakhek, where rainfall is most significant, the persistence index and coefficient of efficiency for 5-lead-day forecasts improved from 0.17 to 0.44 and 0.89 to 0.93, respectively, whereas the root mean square error decreased from 0.83 to 0.69 m.     

Ice-free conditions in Novaya Zemlya 35 000–30 000 cal years B.P., as indicated by radiocarbon ages and amino acid racemization evidence from marine molluscs

Novaya Zemlya was covered by the eastern part of the Barents–Kara ice sheet during the glacial maximum of marine isotope stage 2 (MIS 2). We obtained ¹⁴C ages on 37 samples of mollusc shells from various sites on the islands. Most samples yielded ages in the range of 48–26 ¹⁴C Ky. Such old samples are sensitive to contamination by young ¹⁴C, and therefore their reliability was assessed using replicate analyses and amino acid geochronology. The extent of aspartic acid racemization (Asp D/L) indicates that many of the ¹⁴C ages are correct, whereas some are minimum ages only. The results indicate that a substantial part of Novaya Zemlya was ice-free about 35–27 ¹⁴C Kya, and probably even earlier. Corresponding shorelines up to >140 m a.s.l. indicate a large Barents–Kara ice sheet during early MIS 3. These results are consistent with findings from Svalbard and northern Russia: in both places a large MIS 4/3 Barents–Kara ice sheet is postulated to have retreated about 50 Kya, followed by an ice-free interstadial that lasted until up to ca. 25 Kya. The duration of the MIS 2 glaciation in Novaya Zemlya was calculated by applying the D/L values to a kinetic equation for Asp racemization. This indicates that the islands were ice covered for less than 3000 years if the basal temperature was 0^oC, and for less than 10 000 years if it was −5^oC.     

Late Holocene storm-trajectory changes inferred from the oxygen isotope composition of lake diatoms,south Alaska

The oxygen isotope ratios of diatoms (δ¹⁸O_diatom), and the oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios of lake water (δW) of lakes in south Alaska provide insight into past changes in atmospheric circulation. Lake water was collected from 31 lakes along an elevation transect and diatoms were isolated from lake sediment from one lake (Mica Lake) in south Alaska. In general, δW values from coastal lakes overlap the global meteoric water line (GMWL). δW values from interior lakes do not lie on the GMWL; they fall on a local evaporation line trajectory suggesting source isotopes are depleted with respect to maritime lakes. Sediment cores were recovered from 58 m depth in Mica Lake (60.96° N, 148.15° W; 100 m asl), an evaporation-insensitive lake in the western Prince William Sound. Thirteen calibrated ¹⁴C ages on terrestrial macrofossil samples were used to construct an age-depth model for core MC-2, which spans 9910 cal years. Diatoms from 46, 0.5-cm-thick samples were isolated and analyzed for their oxygen isotope ratios. The analyses employed a newly designed, stepwise fluorination technique, which uses a CO₂ laser-ablation system, coupled to a mass spectrometer, and has an external reproducibility of ±0.2‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values from Mica Lake sediment range between 25.2 and 29.8‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values are relatively uniform between 9.6 and 2.6 ka, but exhibit a four-fold increase in variability since 2.6 ka. High-resolution sampling and analyses of the top 100 cm of our lake cores suggest large climate variability during the last 2000 years. The 20th century shows a +4.0‰ increase of δ¹⁸O_diatom values. Shifts of δ¹⁸O_diatom values are likely not related to changes in diatom taxa or dissolution effects. Late Holocene excursions to lower δ¹⁸O_diatom values suggest a reduction of south-to-north storm trajectories delivered by meridional flow, which likely corresponds to prolonged intervals when the Aleutian Low pressure system weakened. Comparisons with isotope records of precipitation (δP) from the region support the storm-track hypothesis, and add to evidence for variability in North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the Holocene.

Mineralogical and morphological constraints on the reduction of Fe(III) minerals by Geobacter sulfurreducens

The biologically-mediated reduction of synthetic samples of the Fe(III)-bearing minerals hematite, goethite, lepidocrocite, feroxhyte, ford ferrihydrite, akaganeite and schwertmannite by Geobacter sulfurreducens has been investigated using microbiological techniques in conjunction with X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). This combination of approaches offers unique insights into the influence of subtle variations in the crystallinity of a given mineral on biogeochemical processes, and has highlighted the importance of (oxyhydr)oxide crystallite morphology in determining the changes occurring in a given mineral phase. Problems arising from normalising the biological Fe(III) reduction rates relative to the specific surface areas of the starting materials are also highlighted. These problems are caused primarily by particle aggregation, and compounded when using spectrophotometric assays to monitor reduction. For example, the initial rates of Fe(III) reduction observed for two synthetic feroxyhytes with different crystallinities (as shown by XRD and TEM studies) but almost identical surface areas, differ substantially. Both microbiological and high-resolution TEM studies show that hematite and goethite are susceptible to limited amounts of Fe(III) reduction, as evidenced by the accumulation of Fe(II) during incubation with G. sulfurreducens and the growth of nodular structures on crystalline goethite laths during incubation. Lepidocrocite and akaganeite readily transform into mixtures of magnetite and goethite, and XRD data indicate that the proportion of magnetite increases within the transformation products as the crystallinity of the starting material decreases. The presence of anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate (AQDS) as an electron shuttle increases both the initial rate and longer term extent of biological Fe(III) reduction for all of the synthetic minerals examined. High-resolution XPS indicates subtle but measurable differences in the Fe(III):Fe(II) ratios at the mineral surfaces following extended incubation. For example, for a poorly crystalline schwertmannite, deconvolution of the Fe2p_3/2 peak suggests that the Fe(III):Fe(II) ratio of the near-surface regions varies from 1.0 in the starting material to 0.9 following 144 h of incubation with G.sulfurreducens, and to 0.75 following the same incubation period in the presence of 10 μM AQDS. These results have important implications for the biogeochemical cycling of iron.     

Mineralogical control of rare earth elements in acid sulfate soils

Major, trace and rare earth element concentrations were measured in porewater, surface water and sediments at an acid sulfate soil site. The concentrations of La and Ce in porewater are up to 1-3 ppm. There is a strong correlation between REE concentration and acidity, except that the maximum concentrations were consistently found below the horizon of maximum acidity, associated with an increase in pH (to ca. 4) and change in mineralogy from jarosite-dominated to goethite-dominated mottles. Jarosite replacement by goethite is as expected with the rise in pH, which in turn is due to the occurrence of a fossil shell bed just below. The rare earth element patterns in the porewaters are enriched in the MREE with respect to Post-Archaean Australian Shale (PAAS). Measurements and calculations show that this is in accord with experiments on low-degree partial dissolution of jarosite, even when the jarosite itself is highly enriched in LREE. There is a clear fractionation in the patterns between the clay-rich soil matrix, which is slightly depleted in the LREE when normalized to PAAS (La/Yb_PAAS ∼0.5), and the secondary mineral phase jarosite, which is enriched in the LREE (La/Yb_PAAS = 15-50). The REE pattern in the porewater changes with the transition from jarosite- to goethite-rich mottles, becoming relatively more enriched in the LREE compared to the HREE, which is consistent with the incongruent dissolution of jarosite to form goethite and the release of greater amounts of jarosite REE to solution, including proportionately more of the jarosite-compatible LREE.Maximum surface water REE concentrations in acidic water were 100-200 ppb La and Ce. REE patterns in surface water were very similar to the porewater transition zone, enriched in the MREE, but asymmetric, relatively enriched in the LREE compared to the HREE.     

Phosphorus Availability and Salinity Control Productivity and Demography of the Seagrass <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thalassia testudinum</Emphasis> in Florida Bay

Biomass, net primary productivity (NPP), foliar elemental content, and demography of Thalassia testudinum were monitored in populations from five sites across Florida Bay beginning in January 2001. Sites were selected to take advantage of the spatial variability in phosphorus (P) availability and salinity climates across the bay. Aboveground biomass and NPP of T. testudinum were determined five to six times annually. Short-shoot demography, belowground biomass, and belowground NPP were assessed from a single destructive harvest at each site and short-shoot cohorts were estimated from leaf scar counts multiplied by site-specific leaf production rates. Biomass, relative growth rate (RGR), and overall NPP were positively correlated with P availability. Additionally, a positive correlation between P availability and the ratio of photosynthetic to non-photosynthetic biomass suggests that T. testudinum increases allocation to aboveground biomass as P availability increases. Population turnover increased with P availability, evident in positive correlations of recruitment and mortality rates with P availability. Departures from seasonally modeled estimates of RGR were found to be influenced by salinity, which depressed RGR when below 20 psu or above 40 psu. Freshwater management in the headwaters of Florida Bay will alter salinity and nutrient climates. It is becoming clear that such changes will affect T. testudinum, with likely feedbacks on ecosystem structure, function, and habitat quality.     

Identifying outliers and assessing the accuracy of amino acid racemization measurements for geochronology: I. Age calibration curves

Numerical ages derived from amino acid racemization (AAR) geochronology are typically based on calibration curves that relate the extent of AAR to the age of independently dated specimens. Here, we compare options for developing calibration curves and quantifying age uncertainties using AAR data from 481 late Holocene shells, and AMS ¹⁴C analyses of 36 shells of four molluscan taxa (Ethalia, Natica, Tellina, and Turbo) collected from shallow sediment cores from a back-reef lagoon of the central Great Barrier Reef. The four taxa differed substantially in the quality of their geochronogical results. Explicitly including data from specimens alive at the time of collection improves calibration curves, but weighting numerical ages based on their uncertainty has no effect. Calibration curve statistics do not adequately assess calibration uncertainty. The relation between ages inferred from different amino acids is recommended for identifying aberrant specimens and quantifying the uncertainty of inferred ages. For this study, the AAR ages based on two amino acids (aspartic acid and glutamic acid) exceed 200 yr or 20% of their mean inferred age in 15% of the specimens. Once these were removed, the mean age error (1σ) for individual specimens based on two amino acids analyzed in duplicate subsamples ranged from 53 to 142 yr for Tellina and Turbo, respectively, or about a 30% age error for these relatively young shells. This compares favorably with analytical errors estimated at 50 yr or 5%. The presence of notable outliers undetectable using data from single amino acids emphasizes the importance of analyzing multiple amino acids.     

Centimeter-Level Positioning of a U. S. Coast Guard Buoy Tender

With the availability of high-accuracy, differential global positioning system (GPS) results in real-time, there is a new opportunity to use GPS to accurately measure a marine vessel's dynamic draft (settlement and squat) and 3D attitude (roll, pitch, and heading). The National Geodetic Survey (NGS) and the Coast Survey (CS), offices of the National Ocean Service (NOS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), propose to transfer this technology to the shipping industry. The overall goal of this project is to provide the position of a vessel's keel in real time to within 10 cm (about 4 inches) relative to the bottom of the shipping channel. In support of this phase of the project, there were three meetings hosted by the Port of Oakland, California and NOS to discuss the real-time positioning of vessels project. On December 3 and 4, 1996, CS, NGS, Trimble Navigation Ltd., and the U. S. Coast Guard (USCG) performed GPS tests on a USCG buoy-tender ship. GPS data were used to compute the vessel's dynamic draft and 3D attitude. During the test, five receivers continually collected data; one receiver was located at a base station on the USCG pier on Yerba Buena Island, and four were on the ship: two on the stern and two on the bow. CS installed a TSS-335B vertical reference unit (to measure heave, pitch, and roll) in the engine room of the ship. NOS processed the GPS data and computed the vessel's dynamic draft and 3D attitude. The results indicate that the linear equivalent to the vessel's dynamic draft and 3D attitude were accurate to the 10-cm level using GPS. It was also demonstrated how a ship can be used to measure local water-level changes and actual water-level values everywhere it travels. ? 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Vulnerability of Island Tropical Montane Cloud Forests to Climate Change, with Special Reference to East Maui, Hawaii

Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable listening posts for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.     

Bulk organic δC and C/N as indicators for sediment sources in the Pearl River delta and estuary,southern China

Preservation of organic matter in estuarine and coastal areas is an important process in the global carbon cycle. This paper presents bulk δ¹³C and C/N of organic matter from source to sink in the Pearl River catchment, delta and estuary, and discusses the applicability of δ¹³C and C/N as indicators for sources of organic matter in deltaic and estuarine sediments. In addition to the 91 surface sediment samples, other materials collected in this study cover the main sources of organic material to estuarine sediment. These are: terrestrial organic matter (TOM), including plants and soil samples from the catchment; estuarine and marine suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) from both summer and winter. Results show that the average δ¹³C of estuarine surface sediment increases from −25.0 ± 1.3‰ in the freshwater environment to −21.0 ± 0.2‰ in the marine environment, with C/N decreasing from 15.2 ± 3.3 to 6.8 ± 0.2. In the source areas, C₃ plants have lower δ¹³C than C₄ plants (−29.0 ± 1.8‰ and −13.1 ± 0.5‰ respectively). δ¹³C increases from −28.3 ± 0.8‰ in the forest soil to around −24.1‰ in both riverbank soil and mangrove soil due to increasing proportion of C₄ grasses. The δ¹³C_POC increases from −27.6 ± 0.8‰ in the freshwater areas to −22.4 ± 0.5‰ in the marine-brackish-water areas in winter, and ranges between −24.0‰ in freshwater areas and −25.4‰ in brackish-water areas in summer. Comparison of the δ¹³C and C/N between the sources and sink indicates a weakening TOM and freshwater POC input in the surface sedimentary organic matter seawards, and a strengthening contribution from the marine organic matter. Thus we suggest that bulk organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis can be used to indicate sources of sedimentary organic matter in estuarine environments. Organic carbon in surface sediments derived from anthropogenic sources such as human waste and organic pollutants from industrial and agricultural activities accounts for less than 10% of the total organic carbon (TOC). Although results also indicate elevated δ¹³C of sedimentary organic matter due to some agricultural products such as sugarcane, C₃ plants are still the dominant vegetation type in this area, and the bulk organic δ¹³C and C/N is still an effective indicator for sources of organic matter in estuarine sediments.