Centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene oceanographic variability in Disko Bugt,West Greenland

A new centennial scale benthic foraminiferal record of late Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off West Greenland (Disko Bugt) highlights substantial subsurface water mass changes (e.g. temperature and salinity) of the West Greenland Current (WGC) over the past 3.6 ka BP. Benthic foraminifera reveal a long-term late Holocene cooling trend, which may be attributed to increased advection of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the East Greenland Current (EGC). Cooling becomes most pronounced from c. 1.7 ka BP onwards. At this point the calcareous Atlantic benthic foraminiferal fauna decrease significantly and is replaced by an agglutinated Arctic fauna. Superimposed on this cooling trend, centennial scale variability in the WGC reveals a marked cold phase at c. 2.5 ka BP, which may correspond to the 2.7 ka BP cooling-event recorded in marine and terrestrial archives elsewhere in the North Atlantic region. A warm phase recognized at c. 1.8 ka BP is likely to correspond to the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and represents the warmest bottom water conditions. During the time period of the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ we observe only a slight warming of the WGC. A progressively more dominant cold water contribution from the EGC on the WGC is documented by the prominent rise in abundance of agglutinated Arctic water species from 0.9 ka BP onwards. This cooling event culminates at c. 0.3 ka BP and represents the coldest episode of the ‘Little Ice Age’.Gradually increased influence of cold, low-salinity water masses derived from the EGC may be linked to enhanced advection of Polar and Arctic water by the EGC. These changes are possibly associated with a reported shift in the large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric circulation pattern towards a more frequent negative North Atlantic Oscillation mode during the late Holocene.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

3D geological modelling of the Renard 2 kimberlite pipe,Québec,Canada: from exploration to extraction

The Renard 2 kimberlite pipe is one of nine diamondiferous kimberlite pipes that form a cluster in the south-eastern portion of the Superior Province, Québec, Canada and is presently being extracted at the Renard Mine. It is interpreted as a diatreme-zone kimberlite consisting of two Kimberley-type pyroclastic units and related country rock breccias, all cross-cut by coherent kimberlite dykes and irregular intrusives. Renard 2 has been the subject of numerous diamond drilling campaigns since its discovery in 2001. The first two geological models modelled kimberlite and country rock breccia units separately. A change in modelling philosophy in 2009, which incorporated the emplacement envelope and history, modelled the entire intrusive event and projected the pipe shape to depth allowing for more targeted deep drilling where kimberlite had not yet been discovered. This targeted 2009 drilling resulted in a > 400% increase in the volume of the Indicated Resource. Modelling only the kimberlite units resulted in a significant underestimation of the pipe shape. Current open pit and underground mapping of the pipe shape corresponds well to the final 2015 geological model and contact changes observed are within the expected level of confidence for an Indicated Resource. This study demonstrates that a sound understanding of the geological emplacement is key to developing a reliable 3D geological and resource model that can be used for targeted delineation drilling, feasibility studies and during the initial stages of mining.

     

Temporal and bathymetric resolution of nautiloid death assemblages in stratigraphically condensed oozes (New Caledonia)

Cephalopod shells can be affected by postmortem transport and biostratigraphic condensation, but direct estimates of the temporal and spatial resolutions of cephalopod assemblages are missing. Amino acid racemisation calibrated by ¹⁴C demonstrates a centennial‐scale time averaging (<500 years) of Nautilus macromphalus in sediment‐starved, epi‐ and mesobathyal pelagic environments. The few shells that are thousands of years old are highly degraded. The median occurrence of dead shells is at 445 m depth, close to the 300–400 m depth where living N. macromphalus are most abundant. Therefore, dead shells of this species accumulate at a centennial temporal resolution and with excellent bathymetric fidelity. Dead Nautilus shells exist for only a few hundred years on the seafloor, in contrast to the biostratigraphically condensed mixture of extant foraminifers and foraminifers that went extinct during the Pleistocene. Cephalopod shells that do not show any signs of early diagenetic cementation are unlikely to be biostratigraphically condensed.     

Origin of glass in upper mantle xenoliths from the quaternary volcanics of Gees,West Eifel,Germany

Glasses have been analysed from six mantle-derived xenoliths (5 orthopyroxene and/or olivine-rich, 1 clinopyroxene-rich) from the Quaternary volcanics S.E. of Gees, West Eifel, Germany. The glasses in these xenoliths occur as pools surrounding and embaying spinels, as inclusions in spinels, as veins and stringers within phlogopiterich veins, and as jackets partially surrounding some of the xenoliths. Glasses analysed are felsic and characterised by low to intermediate SiO₂ (40–62 wt.%), variable CaO (1–11 wt.%) and MgO (1–4 wt.%), high Al₂O₃ (14–21 wt.%), and up to 11 wt.% Na₂O + K₂O. The jacket glasses have the lowest SiO₂, highest CaO and MgO. Variations in all of the glass compositions are similar and imply a unifying factor or process in their formation. Glass as pools and stringers within veins of phlogopite forms part of the same trends shown by all the glasses when plotted on bivariate (oxide vs SiO₂) diagrams but can be distinguished from glass surrounding and enclosed by spinels. Glasses occurring as jackets are similar in composition to those in pools and veinlets associated with phlogopite but are of quite different composition to the glasses found within the xenoliths that they partially enclose. The occurrence and chemistry of the glasses do not support such glasses as representing original or differentiated magma trapped during formation of the xenolithic assemblages. The chemistry of the glasses also makes it unlikely that they were produced by dissociation of phlogopite during ascent of the xenoliths. The most likely origin for the glasses is that they represent volatile-rich melts which migrated through upper mantle material. These melts are likely to be responsible for the heterogeneous nature of the mantle underlying this part of the West Eifel region.     

The historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled adjusted range

It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series.Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem.The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.     

Comparing Human and Neural Network Learning of Climate Categories

This study compares how humans and neural networks classify climate types. Human subjects were asked to classify climates from monthly temperature and precipitation patterns. To model their learning process, the same data were used to produce input vectors that trained a pattern associator neural network. Both human subjects and the neural network classified climates accurately after 10 rounds of supervised learning. The neural network successfully modeled the rate of human learning and the ability to learn specific climate categories. Moreover, the neural network weights used to classify climates correspond to distinct visual characteristics in temperature and precipitation. These results suggest that neural networks can model the formation of visual categories.     

Temporal Variations of Chlorinated Solvents in Abstraction Wells

Data obtained during an organic water quality survey of abstraction (pumping) wells in the Triassic Sandstone Aquifer of Birmingham (U.K.) indicate that there are important variations of chlorinated solvent concentrations with time. Short-term observation of solvent concentrations with elapsed pumping time indicates widely differing well responses; such observations are important in establishing good sampling protocols. Long-term monitoring indicates that solvent concentrations, particularly trichloroethene, are often stable with time. When large solvent variations do occur, these are shown to be due to the variation in the abstraction history of the well or significant migration of solvent plumes during the monitoring period. The latter effect is particularly exemplified by rising trends in 1,1,1-trichlroethane concentrations. The changes observed in solvent concentrations during long-term monitoring of the Birmingham Aquifer are slow to occur, but often large.