Predicting summer hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: redux

We report on the evolution and accuracy of a model used to predict the mid-summer area of hypoxia (oxygen ≤2 mg l(-1)) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, use it to test for impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), and estimate the N loading that would meet a management goal. The prediction since 2000 were 100%±6% (μ±1 SE) of the actual value. The predicted in 2010 was 99% of that actual value, suggesting that the net effect of the 2010 oil spill on the hypoxic zone size was negligible. A tropical storm, however, may have reduced the potential size of the hypoxic zone. Lowering the May nitrogen load to about 70,000 mton N nitrate+nitrite would bring the model's predicted hypoxic zone size down to the management goal of 5000 km(2) and restore hypoxic waters to normoxic conditions.     

The nested superblock approach for regional-scale analytic element models

A new approach is presented for improving the computational efficiency of regional-scale ground water models based on the analytic element method (AEM). The algorithm is an extension of the existing "superblock" algorithm, which combines the effects of multiple analytic elements into Laurent series and Taylor series (superblock expansions). With the new "nested superblock" formulation, Laurent series are nested in a hierarchical (quad-tree) data structure with direct mathematical relationships between parent and child superblock coefficients. Nested superblocks significantly accelerate the evaluation of the complex potential and discharge function in models that contain a large number of analytic elements at multiple scales. This evaluation process, the primary computational cost of AEM models, is required to determine the element coefficients, generate contour plots, and trace pathlines. The performance of the nested superblocks is demonstrated with a simplified model based on the Lake Ontario watershed geometry comprising thousands of hydrogeologic features at multiple geographic scales.     

The 20 May 2016 Petermann Ranges earthquake: centroid location,magnitude and focal mechanism from full waveform modelling

Ground velocity records of the 20 May 2016 Petermann Ranges earthquake are used to calculate its centroid-moment-tensor in the 3?D heterogeneous Earth model AuSREM. The global-centroid-moment-tensor reported a depth of 12?km, which is the shallowest allowed depth in the algorithm. Solutions from other global and local agencies indicate that the event occurred within the top 12?km of the crust, but the locations vary laterally by up to 100?km. We perform a centroid-moment-tensor inversion through a spatiotemporal grid search in 3?D allowing for time shifts around the origin time. Our 3?D grid encompasses the locations of all proposed global solutions. The inversion produces an ensemble of solutions that constrain the depth, lateral location of the centroid, and strike, dip and rake of the fault. The centroid location stands out with a clear peak in the correlation between real and synthetic data for a depth of 1?km at longitude 129.8° and latitude –25.6°. A collection of acceptable solutions at this centroid location, produced by different time shifts, constrain the fault strike to be 304?±?4° or 138?±?1°. The two nodal planes have dip angles of 64?±?5° and 26?±?4° and rake angles of 96?±?2° and 77?±?5°, respectively. The southwest-dipping nodal plane with the dip angle of 64° could be seen as part of a near vertical splay fault system at the end of the Woodroffe Thrust. The other nodal plane could be interpreted as a conjugate fault rupturing perpendicular to the splay structure. We speculate that the latter is more likely, since the hypocentres reported by several agencies, including the Geoscience Australia, as well as the majority of aftershocks are all located to the northeast of our preferred centroid location. Our best estimate for the moment magnitude of this event is 5.9. The optimum centroid is located on the 20?km surface rupture caused by the earthquake. Given the estimated magnitude, the long surface rupture requires only ～4?km of rupture down dip, which is in agreement with the shallow centroid depth we obtained.     

Conformal octagon: An attractive framework for global models offering quasi-uniform regional enhancement of resolution

Summary With the increasingly widespread adoption of massively parallel processing (MPP) computers for applications in computational fluid dynamics it becomes appropriate to reconsider the geometrical configuration of the computational grid that best suits the problem. In the case of global numerical weather prediction we have recently advocated a conformal spherical-cubic geometry. Among its merits, this grid lends itself naturally to simple domain-decomposition and obviates the need for polar filtering.Here we extend the same principles, but with an emphasis on the problem of regional forecasting. In this case we observe that it is possible to cover the global domain with a conformal grid geometry based on the mapping to the sphere of a back-to-back pair of octagonal regions. In the most symmetrical case, each octagon maps to a hemisphere. By compounding this mapping with a nonhomogeneous conformal mapping of the sphere to itself, one can also arrange to have quasi-uniform enhanced resolution of the resulting grid inside any chosen circle on the sphere, at the expense of relatively coarse resolution degrading gradually with distance outside the circle of interest.With appropriate grid dimensions, the new conformal octagon decomposes naturally into several identical square subdomains for efficient distribution over the nodes of an MPP computer.With 11 Figures     

Using multiresolution and multitemporal satellite data for post-disaster landslide inventory in the Republic of Serbia

This paper focuses on a specific event-based landslide inventory compiled after the May 2014 heavy rainfall episode in Serbia as a part of the post-disaster recovery actions. The inventory was completed for a total of 23 affected municipalities, and the municipality of Krupanj was selected as the location for a more detailed study. Three sources of data collection and analysis were used: a visual analysis of the post-event very high and high (VHR-HR) resolution images (Pléiades, WorldView-2 and SPOT 6), semi-automatic landslide recognition in pre- and post-event coarse resolution images (Landsat 8) and a landslide mapping field campaign. The results suggest that the visual and semi-automated analyses significantly contributed to the quality of the final inventory, including the associated planning strategies for conducting future field campaigns (as a final stage of the inventorying process), all the more so because the field-based and image-based inventories were focused on different types of landslides. In the most affected municipalities that had very high resolution satellite image coverage (19.52% of the whole study area), the density of the recognized landslides was approximately three times higher than that in those municipalities without satellite image coverage (where only field data were available). The total number of field-mapped landslides for the 23 municipalities was 1785, while image-based inventories, which were available only for the municipalities with satellite image coverage (77.43% of the study area), showed 1298 landslide records. The semi-automated landslide inventory in the test area (Krupanj municipality), which was based on coarse resolution multitemporal images (Landsat 8), counted 490 landslide instances and was in agreement with the visual analysis of the higher resolution images, with an overlap of approximately 40%. These results justify the use of preliminary inventorying via satellite image analysis and suggest a considerable potential use for preliminary visual and semi-automated landslide inventorying as an important supplement to field mapping.     

An analytical model of a deformable cantilever structure rocking on a rigid surface: development and verification

This paper extends previously developed models to account for the influence of the column and the foundation masses on the behavior of top‐heavy deformable elastic cantilever columns rocking on a rigid support surface. Several models for energy dissipation at impact are examined and compared. A novel Vertical Velocity Energy Loss model is introduced. Rocking uplift and overturning spectra for the deformable elastic cantilever model excited by sinusoidal ground motions are constructed. The effects of non‐dimensional model parameter variations on the rocking spectra and the overturning stability of the model are presented. It is shown that the remarkable overturning stability of dynamically excited large cantilever columns is not jeopardized by their deformability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analytical model of a deformable cantilever structure rocking on a rigid surface: experimental validation

This paper describes an experimental program to examine the dynamic response of deformable cantilevers rocking on a rigid surface. The primary goal of the tests is to verify and validate a dynamic rocking model that describes the behavior of these structures. The benchmark response data was obtained from shaking‐table tests on deformable rocking specimens with different natural vibration frequencies and different aspect ratios excited by analytical pulses and recorded ground motions. The responses computed using the model are found to be in good agreement with the benchmark test results. Widely used impact, restitution and damping assumptions are revisited based on the experiment results and the analytical model findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HVSR of ambient noise in Ston (Croatia): comparison with theoretical spectra and with the damage distribution after the 1996 Ston-Slano earthquake

Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) of ambient vibrations measured in the ancient town of Ston (Croatia) on 99 locations, are shown to be well matched to the theoretical ones computed for body-waves as well as for the surface waves. This match is poorer for sites on the slopes of nearby hills. The ratios of measured peak horizontal ground acceleration during the damaging earthquake in 1996 (M _L = 6.0) and the ones obtained using empirical attenuation laws is approximately equal to the mapped value of the dynamic amplification factor determined on the basis of observed HVSR in the vicinity of the accelerometric station. The HVSR of the accelerogram is very similar to the HVSR of the ambient noise. The damage to the building stock in the old town centre caused by the earthquake series of 1996 is closely related to the estimated soil amplification and its fundamental frequency. More measurements in buildings are needed to arrive at confident conclusions about possible soil-structure resonance.     

Analysis of precipitation series for Belgrade

Summary Precipitation is a very variable climatic element. It is highly variable, both spatially and temporally at different scales (interannual and intra-annual). The search for cyclicity in the climatic record can resolve some of the complexities of the atmospheric system. This paper takes the example of the Belgrade precipitation series (1889–2000) to illustrate how trend and spectral analysis can provide information on climate variability as expressed through this particular variable.The annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation series of the Belgrade-Observatory station were analyzed by means of the Mann-Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The power spectra were calculated using the autocorrelation spectral analysis, the maximum entropy spectral analysis and the multitaper method.The influence of large-scale phenomena such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Belgrade precipitation series was investigated.