Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

中亚与中国西北地区陷落型前陆盆地的构造样式及成因分析

中亚与中国西北地区的多数中—新生代沉积盆地都表现为山前（指造山带或活动隆起带前缘）地带先行沉降,然后逐步向外扩展;早—中侏罗世沉降幅度最大,普遍形成未补偿的深湖—半深湖沉积,沉积范围遍及造山带,构成一准平原化的泛盆地沉积时期。盆地早期的构造样式均为半地堑式箕状凹陷,晚期均发生方式不同的的构造反转,形成全反转的逆冲推覆和半反转的正或逆反转构造。这些特征及区域构造背景共同说明,这一地区中—新生代盆地初始沉降不是起因于板块俯冲引发的挠曲作用,而是因造山带或活动隆起带前缘地带克拉通地块的重力陷落所引起,这样形成的盆地可称为陷落型前陆盆地。     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

Environmental Geochemistry and Acid Mine Drainage Evaluation of an Abandoned Coal Waste Pile at the Alborz-Sharghi Coal Washing Plant,NE Iran

In this paper, an abandoned waste coal pile, which is resulted from Alborz-Sharghi coal washing plant, NE of Iran was mineralogically and geochemically characterized to evaluate pyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage (AMD) generation, and trace element mobility. After digging ten trenches and vertical sampling, a quantitative method including the atomic absorption test, and the quality-based methods including optical study were carried out for determination of pyrite fractions in the waste pile. The geochemical results revealed that the fraction of remaining pyrite increased with depth, indicating that pyrite oxidation is limited to the shallower depths of the pile which were confirmed by variations of sulfate, pH, EC, and carbonate with depth of the pile. To evaluate the trend of trace elements and mineralogical constituents of the waste particles, the samples were analyzed by using XRD, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES methods. The results showed the secondary and neutralizing minerals comprising gypsum have been formed below the oxidation zone. Besides, positive values of net neutralization potential indicated that AMD generation has not taken in the waste pile. In addition, variations of trace elements with depth reveal that Pb and Zn exhibited increasing trends from pile surface toward the bottom sampling trenches while another of them such as Cu and Ni had decreasing trends with increasing depth of the waste pile.     

GIS空间数据库的"一库两用"策略研究

GIS有两种普遍的应用需求:空间分析和数字制图,但两种需求对空间数据的要求不完全一致,导致空间数据在同一GIS中无法充分共享。该文探讨能够同时满足两种需求的GIS构建方法。分析地理空间数据存在的冲突,引入"一库两用"思想,建立空间分析型数据模型;利用专家系统机制实现空间分析数据向数字制图数据的转换,转换过程中补充的信息源于专家知识库。该研究有助于解决GIS中数据不一致问题,使GIS更实用、功能更完善。     

台湾省辐射气候特征

本文根据一些实测资料,选配了适合本地区的经验公式,计算台湾省辐射平衡各分量并讨论其时空分布特征,作出辐射气候分区。     

天津地区典型土壤剖面饱和烃分布特征及环境意义

分析了天津地区不同环境功能区7 条土壤剖面中饱和烃含量、组成及部分地球化学参数 的变化规律, 比较了不同土壤剖面饱和烃在纵向上的变化特征。结果表明, 市区( 南开区) 及近郊 区( 武清区, 北辰区和宁河县交界处) 表层土饱和烃含量最高, 其他剖面含量较低; 随深度增大, 饱 和烃含量均有所降低, 但不同剖面变化幅度不同, 表层含量较高的剖面随深度增大, 饱和烃含量 降低幅度较大, 反之则较小。根据部分典型地球化学参数的纵向变化特征, 推测表层土壤饱和烃 主要为石油源和植物源的混合源, 且市区和郊区主要受石油源控制。不同土壤剖面表层土污染源 存在差别。同一剖面表层土壤( <30cm) 不同层次的样品的饱和烃污染源较为接近; 剖面深部( > 30cm) 不同层次样品中正构烷烃不同于表层, 且成因复杂, 既受来源于土壤中有机质降解产物的 影响, 又受表层土中饱和烃纵向迁移作用的影响。对于甾、萜类化合物, 表层土壤中饱和烃含量较 高的剖面, 深层土壤受表层土壤甾、萜类污染物迁移作用的影响; 表层土壤中饱和烃含量较低的 剖面, 深层土壤受表层土壤甾、萜类污染物影响较小。     

Mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradation

The mass-front velocities of granular flows results from the joint action of particle size gradations and the underlying surfaces.However,because of the complexity of friction during flow movement,details such as the slope-toe impedance effects and momentum-transfer mechanisms have not been completely explained by theoretical analyses,numerical simulations,or field investigations.To study the mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradations we conducted model experiments that recorded the motion of rapid and long-runout rockslides or avalanches.Flume tests were conducted using slope angles of 25°,35°,45°,and 55° and three particle size gradations.The resulting mass-front motions consisted of three stages:acceleration,velocity maintenance,and deceleration.The existing methods of velocity prediction could not explain the slowing effect of the slope toe or the momentum-transfer steady velocity stage.When the slope angle increased from 25° to 55°,the mass-front velocities dropped significantly to between 44.4% and59.6% of the peak velocities and energy lossesincreased from 69.1% to 83.7% of the initial,respectively.The velocity maintenance stages occurred after the slope-toe and mass-front velocity fluctuations.During this stage,travel distances increased as the angles increased,but the average velocity was greatest at 45°.At a slope angle of 45°,as the median particle size increased,energy loss around the slope toe decreased,the efficiency of momentum transfer increased,and the distance of the velocity maintenance stage increased.We presented an improved average velocity formula for granular flow and a geometrical model of the energy along the flow line.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.