Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability in the vertical hyporheic water exchange affected by hydraulic conductivity and river morphology at a natural confluent meander bend

River confluences and their associated tributaries are key morphodynamic nodes that play important roles in controlling hydraulic geometry and hyporheic water exchange in fluvial networks. However, the existing knowledge regarding hyporheic water exchange associated with river confluence morphology is relatively scarce. On January 14 and 15, 2016, the general hydraulic and morphological characteristics of the confluent meander bend (CMB) between the Juehe River and the Haohe River in the southern region of Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, were investigated. The patterns and magnitudes of vertical hyporheic water exchange (VHWE) were estimated based on a one‐dimensional heat steady‐state model, whereas the sediment vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) was calculated via in situ permeameter tests. The results demonstrated that 6 hydrodynamic zones and their extensions were observed at the CMB during the test period. These zones were likely controlled by the obtuse junction angle and low momentum flux ratio, influencing the sediment grain size distribution of the CMB. The VHWE patterns at the test site during the test period mostly showed upwelling flow dominated by regional groundwater discharging into the river. The occurrence of longitudinal downwelling and upwelling patterns along the meander bend at the CMB was likely subjected to the comprehensive influences of the local sinuosity of the meander bend and regional groundwater discharge and finally formed regional and local flow paths. Additionally, in dominated upwelling areas, the change in VHWE magnitudes was nearly consistent with that in K_v values, and higher values of both variables generally occurred in erosional zones near the thalweg paths of the CMB, which were mostly made up of sand and gravel. This was potentially caused by the erosional and depositional processes subjected to confluence morphology. Furthermore, lower K_v values observed in downwelling areas at the CMB were attributed to sediment clogging caused by local downwelling flow. The confluence morphology and sediment K_v are thus likely the driving factors that cause local variations in the VHWE of fluvial systems.     

Groundwater recharge in an arid grassland as indicated by soil chloride profile and multiple tracers

Previous studies have shown that shallow groundwater in arid regions is often not in equilibrium with near‐surface boundary conditions due to human activities and climate change. This is especially the case where the unsaturated zone is thick and recharge rate is limited. Under this nonequilibrium condition, the unsaturated zone solute profile plays an important role in estimating recent diffuse recharge in arid environments. This paper combines evaluation of the thick unsaturated zone with the saturated zone to investigate the groundwater recharge of a grassland in the arid western Ordos Basin, NW China, using the soil chloride profiles and multiple tracers (²H, ¹⁸O, ¹³C, ¹⁴C, and water chemistry) of groundwater. Whereas conventional water balance and Darcy flux measurements usually involve large errors in recharge estimations for arid areas, chloride mass balance has been widely and generally successfully used. The results show that the present diffuse recharge beneath the grassland is 0.11–0.32 mm/year, based on the chloride mass balance of seven soil profiles. The chloride accumulation age is approximately 2,500 years at a depth of 13 m in the unsaturated zone. The average Cl content in soil moisture in the upper 13 m of the unsaturated zone ranges from 2,842 to 7,856 mg/L, whereas the shallow groundwater Cl content ranges from 95 to 351 mg/L. The corrected ¹⁴C age of shallow groundwater ranges from 4,327 to 29,708 years. Stable isotopes show that the shallow groundwater is unrelated to modern precipitation. The shallow groundwater was recharged during the cold and wet phases of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene humid phase based on palaeoclimate, and consequently, the groundwater resources are nonrenewable. Due to the limited recharge rate and thick unsaturated zone, the present shallow groundwater has not been in hydraulic equilibrium with near‐surface boundary conditions in the past 2,500 years.     

Extended finite element framework for fault rupture dynamics including bulk plasticity

We present an explicit extended finite element framework for fault rupture dynamics accommodating bulk plasticity near the fault. The technique is more robust than the standard split‐node method because it can accommodate a fault propagating freely through the interior of finite elements. To fully exploit the explicit algorithmic framework, we perform mass lumping on the enriched finite elements that preserve the kinetic energy of the rigid body and enrichment modes. We show that with this technique, the extended FE solution reproduces the standard split‐node solution, but with the added advantage that it can also accommodate randomly propagating faults. We use different elastoplastic constitutive models appropriate for geomaterials, including the Mohr–Coulomb, Drucker–Prager, modified Cam‐Clay, and a conical plasticity model with a compression cap, to capture off‐fault bulk plasticity. More specifically, the cap model adds robustness to the framework because it can accommodate various modes of deformation, including compaction, dilatation, and shearing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the relationship between historical land‐use change and water availability: the case of the lower Tarim River region in northwestern China

Natural ecosystems in the region of the lower Tarim River in northwestern China strongly deteriorated since the 1950s due to an expanding desertification. As a result, the downstream Tarim River reaches became permanently dry land. This historical evolution in land‐use change is typically the result of the anthropogenic impact on natural ecosystems. On the basis of a spatially distributed hydrological catchment model bidirectionally linked with a fully hydrodynamic MIKE11 river model, land‐use changes characterized by historical changes in leaf area index (LAI) of vegetation, as well as the evolution of irrigated surface areas, can be causally related to changes in water resources (groundwater storage and surface water resources). An increased surface area of irrigated (agricultural) land, together with a majority of inefficient irrigation methods, did lead to a strong increase of water resources consumption of the farmlands located in the upper Tarim River area. Evidently, this evolution influenced available water resources downstream in the Tarim basin. As a result, farmland has been gradually relocated to the upstream regions. This has led to reduced flows from the upper Tarim stream, which subsequently accelerated the dropping of the groundwater level downstream in the basin. This study moreover demonstrates that land surface biomass changes (cumulative LAI) along the lower Tarim River are strongly related to the changes in groundwater storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleogene of the Huanghekou Sag in the Bohai Bay Basin,NE China: deposition–erosion response to a slope break system of rift lacustrine basins

The sequence architecture and depositional systems of the Paleogene lacustrine rift succession in the Huanghekou Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, NE China were investigated based on seismic profiles, combined with well log and core data. Four second‐order or composite sequences and seven third‐order sequences were identified. The depositional systems identified in the basin include: fan delta, braid delta, meander fluvial delta, lacustrine and sublacustrine fan. Identification of the slope break was conducted combining the interpretation of faults of each sequence and the identification of syndepositional faults, based on the subdivision of sequence stratigraphy and analysis of depositional systems. Multiple geomorphologic units were recognized in the Paleogene of the Huanghekou Sag including faults, flexures, depositional slope break belts, ditch‐valleys and sub‐uplifts in the central sag. Using genetic division principles and taking into consideration tectonic features of the Paleogene of the Huanghekou Sag, the study area was divided into the Northern Steep Slope/Fault Slope Break System, the Southern Gentle Slope Break System and T10 Tectonic Slope Break System/T10 Tectonic Belt. Responses of slope break systems to deposition–erosion are shown as: (1) basin marginal slope break is the boundary of the eroded area and provenance area; (2) ditch‐valley formed by different kinds of slope break belts is a good transport bypass for source materials; (3) shape of the slope break belt of the slope break system controls sediments types; (4) the ditch‐valley and sub‐sag of a slope break system is an unloading area for sediments; and (5) due to their different origins, association characteristics and developing patterns, the Paleogene slope break belt systems in the Huanghekou Sag show different controls on depositional systems. The Northern Fault Slope Break system controls the deposition of a fan delta‐lacustrine‐subaqueous fan, the Southern Gentle Slope Break system controls the deposition of a fluvial–deltaic–shallow lacustrine and sublacustrine fan, and the T10 Tectonic Slope Break System controls the deposition of shallow lacustrine beach bar sandbodies. The existence of a slope break system is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for studying sandbody development. The formation of effective sandbodies along the slope break depends on the reasonable coupling of effective provenance, necessary association patterns of slope break belt, adequate unloading space and creation of definite accommodation space. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.