一次层状云降雨过程多源遥感特征参量演变分析

利用河北省邢台市皇寺国家观测站布设的Ka波段云雷达、微波辐射计和微雨雷达以及地面雨量计等观测资料,对2017年5月3日一次西南涡天气过程的降水云系进行了综合分析,结果表明:本次降水过程为稳定性层状云过程,云内粒子下落速度由高空向地面逐渐增大,第一轮降水出现在云的发展阶段,第二轮降水出现在云的成熟阶段,每次降水开始前云内的相对湿度、水汽含量、液态水含量和温度曲线同时出现跃增和峰值,各指标在降水结束后出现较明显下降,之后得到恢复,出现第二三次峰值并产生降水;利用微波辐射计资料在时间和空间上连续反演计算云中水汽压和冰面饱和水汽压差值场("e—E_i"差值场),当云中过冷水和过冷水汽大值区与"e—E_i"差值场的正值区重合时,冷云中贝吉龙过程较强,有利于精细化定量判断强降水出现和人工增雨潜力区位置,综合以上遥感探测资料分析结果,可以认为本次天气过程有利的人工增雨作业时机出现两次,第一次在13:45降水刚刚开始至云顶下降到6 km前;第二次时间较长,云层条件更为有利,即17:40—21:15云顶高度维持在8~10 km的时段;作业适宜高度为4~8 km(-20~0℃)。     

5—6月东北冷涡持续活动及强度特征

利用1960—2012年5—6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,基于冷涡经典定义,采取客观识别方法检索东北冷涡活动过程,根据东北冷涡活动时空变化特征给出东北冷涡持续活动过程标准, 通过冷涡强度指数进行定量化分析,该指数对冷涡持续活动过程具有较好表征意义。冷涡活动强对应5月乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和6月鄂霍次克海阻塞高压活动频繁。通过强弱指数年合成,得到6月强指数年冷涡系统较深厚,集中于对流层中高层,冷心结构明显,具有一定大气斜压特征; 高层存在冷中心,低层有冷空气活动,中高层西风带呈明显的上游分流和下游汇合特征,分汇流之间呈东北高、西南低的偶极子阻塞形势;弱指数年冷涡系统较浅薄,主要集中在对流层中低层,冷心结构不明显,不存在阻塞形势。     

1979年印度夏季风活跃、中断和撤退时期欧亚上空风场和温度场的变化

本文对1979年夏季印度西南季风活跃、中断和撤退时欧亚地区大范围环流和温度场进行了分析。结果表明,该年季风活动的变率与欧亚中高纬环流形势的演变有明显关系。季风活跃期,高空西风带显著北移,西藏高原上空有高空反气旋环流建立、发展,苏联西部阻塞高压发展、维持;季风中断期,西藏高原西部有高空槽存在;苏联西部阻塞高压减弱、崩溃或有高空槽发展;季风的撤退也与东亚冷空气活动关系密切。     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

三维地质模型在泰安市地下空间开发中的应用

在城市化进程不断加快的今天,城市地下空间开发利用已经成为提高城市容量、缓解交通、改善环境的重要手段。为全面深化对泰安城市地下空间的认识,有效挖掘城市后备空间资源的巨大潜力,通过综合集成钻孔编录、地质图件和数字地形图等多源地学数据,借助MapGIS三维地质建模软件,初步建立起泰安城市三维地质模型,以直观的方式表达工程岩土体空间分布等地质信息,为更好地保护利用泰安市地下空间提供地质依据。     

石岛湾四种常见鱼类的热耐受性比较研究

作者分别采用动态法和静态法两种实验方法,以石岛湾4种常见鱼类(许氏平鲉(Sebastes schlegeli)、大泷六线鱼(Hexagrammos otakii)、褐菖鲉(Sebastiscus marmoratus)和矛尾虎鱼(Chaeturichthys stigmatias))为研究对象,对比研究了在4个季节基础水温(5.0~26.0℃)和9个温升速率(0.5~15.0℃/h)下这些鱼类的热耐受性。结果表明,4种鱼类的CTM(最大临界温度)和24 h UILT_(50)(24 h高起始致死温度)均与基础水温呈显著正相关,温升速率对鱼类耐热性的影响因鱼种和季节基础温度而异;相同基础水温下4种实验鱼类的CTM值均高于24 h UILT_(50)。4种鱼类的24 h UILT50依次为:矛尾虎鱼许氏平鲉褐菖鲉大泷六线鱼。     

Simulation of the extreme waves generated by typhoon Bolaven (1215) in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea

Record-breaking high waves occurred during the passage of the typhoon Bolaven (1215) (TYB) in the East China Sea (ECS) and Yellow Sea (YS) although its intensity did not reach the level of a super typhoon. Winds and directional wave measurements were made using a range of in-situ instruments mounted on an ocean tower and buoys. In order to understand how such high waves with long duration occurred, analyses have been made through measurement and numerical simulations. TYB winds were generated using the TC96 typhoon wind model with the best track data calibrated with the measurements. And then the wind fields were blended with the reanalyzed synoptic-scale wind fields for a wave model. Wave fields were simulated using WAM4.5 with adjustment of C_d for gust of winds and bottom friction for the study area. Thus the accuracy of simulations is considerably enhanced, and the computed results are also in better agreement with measured data than before. It is found that the extremely high waves evolved as a result of the superposition of distant large swells and high wind seas generated by strong winds from the front/right quadrant of the typhoon track. As the typhoon moved at a speed a little slower than the dominant wave group velocity in a consistent direction for two days, the wave growth was significantly enhanced by strong wind input in an extended fetch and non-linear interaction.     

世界气象中心(北京)全球预报服务共享平台设计与实现

世界气象中心(北京)建设是中国气象局承担世界气象组织(WMO)的全球数据处理和预报系统(GDPFS)要求的任务,为全球实时气象预报预测业务提供高效丰富的无缝隙天气气候监测、预报、预测分析指导产品及数据产品服务共享,提高区域性国际天气业务会商交流效率,国家气象中心设计并实现了世界气象中心(北京)全球预报服务共享平台,通过分析全球监测、预报预测等业务数据海量、异构、实时性强等特征,采用浏览器/服务器(B/S结构)多层架构和分布式实时处理、任务调度等关键技术实现了全球实况监测、天气模式、气候模式、模式检验数据的高效加工预处理、产品分析制作、产品自动流转、网络服务共享和业务指导等全流程业务功能,并提供了国际天气预报会商等专业化功能。平台自2018年6月6日业务运行以来,已有13个国家和地区注册会商用户,超过15万次全球访问量,为全球专业用户高效提供了全球实时天气监测、预报服务产品业务指导,未来将成为中国气象局对外气象业务指导和气象服务的重要窗口和纽带。     

基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报

为了探讨热带气旋路径预报的不确定性,利用2004-2007年4年中央气象台综合预报的误差分布状况,建立热带气旋路径综合预报的统计集合模型,制作热带气旋路径的袭击概率预报及产品,并为警报发布工作中有关登陆地段的预报提供有意义的参考.     

最佳气候相似法及在短期气候预测中的应用

本文采用了最佳气候找相似的预报方法来制作长期天气预报。由于这种方法使用了地面、高空、太阳活动和海温资料,具有长时段,多要素,综合性强的特点,所以预报较客观,对预报年的年景能作出较为准确的判断。由于不同站点资料代表着不同地区的气候背景,因而能分片制作短期气候预测,为解决目前短期预报中小尺度天气难的问题提供了较为详实的气候背景和可靠的预报依据。此方法虽属统计方法,但与中、短期数值预报有某些相似之处,主要体现在预测因子的同时性和连续性,对要素的预测如同数值预报产品的释用。