中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素

利用拓展贸易引力模型,借助Eviews等工具分析了影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的因素,以及中国对外直接投资的滞后性对双边贸易的影响。结果表明：1）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模受到经济发展水平、市场规模、政治制度、贸易畅通性、便利性、中国对外直接投资、民间文化交流紧密度的影响;2）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易规模具有正向作用,但其效应具有一定滞后性;3）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与不同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的引力大小不同,可分为投资带动力巨大型、投资带动型、投资一般型、投资带动力不足型4种类型,中国与东南亚、西亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲国家贸易规模受中国对外直接投资带动作用较强。     

环渤海地区农村空心化程度与耕地利用集约度的时空变化及其耦合关系

利用环渤海地区分县社会经济数据和土地利用数据, 采用神经网络确定权重的方法, 对该区分县农村空心化程度和耕地利用集约度进行综合测评, 并以山东省为例, 进行两者耦合规律探索。结果表明:① 环渤海地区农村空心化区域差异明显。高度空心化且进入稳定期的地区主要集中在“C”型沿海地区;平原传统农区, 农村空心化正处空心化的成长、兴盛期;农村空心化低值区主要集中落后山区。② 耕地利用集约度时空差异明显。辽中平原粮食主产区、冀中南粮食主产区、鲁西鲁南粮食主产区集约度较高;低集约度主要集中在太行山区、长白山区、沂蒙山区、坝上高原等落后地区。③ 农村空心化与耕地利用集约度变化存在着耦合联动关系。空心化出现、成长期, 农村劳动力向城镇转移, 农村地区隐性失业问题得以解决, 耕地利用集约度不断提升;农村空心化发展至兴盛期, 农村地域发展面临主体弱化, 耕地利用集约度有所下降;至空心化稳定期, 健全的土地流转机制和农业现代化的持续推进, 耕地利用集约度将反弹上升, 最终趋于波动稳定。     

长江经济带工业废水排放的时空格局演化及驱动因素

利用探索性空间分析方法（ESDA）和迪氏分解模型（LMDI）研究长江经济带2002~2013年工业废水排放的时空格局演化和主要驱动因素。① 时空格局演化方面,时间上工业废水排放先上升后下降,在2005年达到峰值。空间上,排放量自上游向下游增加;高排放城市减少,中排放城市增多;工业废水排放自下游向中上游转移,并由大城市向中小城市扩散;呈现明显的空间集聚状态。② 驱动因素方面,经济发展效应和技术进步效应分别是工业废水排放增多和降低的主导因素;产业结构效应的影响取决于产业发展政策的调整;人口规模效应影响较小。     

乌鲁木齐河流域的水资源及其转化模型

根据我国西北干旱内陆流域水资源形成、转化规律和水资源利用实际情况,利用乌鲁木齐河流域较为丰富的地表水和地下水资料,并结合流域水文地质条件,研制了乌鲁木齐河流域水资源转化模拟和计算模型。模拟和计算结果表明,乌鲁木齐河流域现状实际引水量和净用水量,已经大大超过现有水利条件下的最大可能引水量和净用水量,其中净用水量甚至超过了流域的水资源总量,水资源开发利用明显过度。在现有情况下,再采用提高渠系利用率方法增加可用水量,效果甚微,只能通过节水途径,提高水的利用率,去建立新的水资源供需平衡。     

扇三角洲沉积体系及其与油气聚集关系

扇三角洲沉积体系是断陷盆地中极为发育的一种沉积体系,主要由扇三角洲平原组合、扇三角洲前缘组合和前三角洲沉积构成,可识别出9种成因相。受沉积物供给速率、可容空间增长速率及盆缘断裂产状等因素控制可划分出退积型、加积型、前积型、陡坡型和缓坡型5种扇三角洲类型。位于扇三角洲平原的辫状分流河道砂体及其位于扇三角洲前缘的与之有成因联系的水下分流河口坝、洪水型重力流砂体等物性好,可以构成优质储层。含油性勘探成果亦证实各主力油层段平面上主要分布于扇三角洲前缘及分流间湾区,小部分位于扇三角洲平原区。受埋藏深度和成岩场的影响,不同地区、不同层位主力油层段的物性与岩性相关性各异。因此,应用沉积体系分布与油气聚集规律挖掘剩余油层及进行远景区预测是有效的与可行的。     

树轮──流域径流变化的记录

根据树轮稳定碳同位素组成（δ１３Ｃｔ）序列可较灵敏地记录降水变化的事实，利用长白山红松树轮δ１３Ｃｔ序列与松花江年径流量之间的平行变化关系，重建了近２００年来松花江年径流量的变化：年径流量变化有明显的准２２年周期；１９００年之前，径流量在周期波动中呈上升趋势，１９００年之后，波动中呈下降趋势     

青海祁漫塔格地区虎头崖矿床Ⅵ矿带花岗岩的成岩时代、地球化学特征和成因

利用LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb法,测得与成矿有关的青海祁漫塔格地区虎头崖矿床Ⅵ矿带花岗岩的成岩年龄为(233.6±1.8) Ma(MSWD=1.2,n=17)。地球化学特征显示:花岗岩属高钾钙碱性、弱过铝质花岗岩;样品的稀土元素组成以总体右倾,轻、重稀土分异明显和具明显的负铕异常为特征;微量元素具有富集Rb、Th、U、La、Nd等大离子亲石元素,亏损Ba、Sr、Nb、P、Ti等元素的特点。Sr-Nd同位素组成特征显示,花岗岩的源区可能是富集岩石圈地幔。初步研究认为,虎头崖矿床Ⅵ矿带花岗岩可能形成于中、晚三叠世碰撞后碰撞的构造背景下。     

Numerical analysis of emergency river restoration scheme for Qingping mega debris flow

The mega debris flow occurred on August 13 th 2010 in Qingping town,China(hereafter called ’8.13’ Debris Flow) have done great damage to the local habitants as well as to the re-construction projects in the quake-hit areas,and the channel-fill deposit problem caused by the debris flow was the most destructive.Moreover,it is of high possibility that an even severe deposit problem would reappear and result in worse consequences.In order to maximize risk reduction of this problem,relevant departments of the government established a series of emergency river restoration schemes,for which the numerical analysis is an important procedure to evaluate and determine the optimized one.This study presents a numerical analysis by applying a twodimensional debris flow model combined with a relevant water-sediment model to simulate the deposit during the progress of the debris flow,and to calculate and analyze the river flow field under both the present condition and different restoration conditions.The results show that the debris flow model,which takes the confluence of the Wenjia Gully to the main river into account,could simulate the deposit process quite well.In the reproduced debris flow from the simulation of the ’8.13’ Debris Flow,the original river flow path has switched to a relatively lower place just along the right bank with a high speed of near 7m.s-1 after being blocked by the deposit,which is highly hazardous.To prevent this hazard,a recommended scheme is derived through inter-comparison of different restoration conditions.It shows that the recommended scheme is able to reduce the water level and as well to regulate the flow path.Based on the given conditions of the mainstream and the tributary confluence for the simulated ’8.13’ Debris Flow,when encountering a debris flow with deposit volume less than 0.5 million m3,the river channel can endure a 20-year return flood;however,when the deposit volume increases to 2 million m3,the flood capacity of the river will be greatly impacted and the scheme becomes invalid.The recommended scheme supported by the present study has been applied to the emergency river restoration after this mega-debris flow.     

经验模态分解法在地下水资料处理中的应用

利用经验模态分解法（EMD）对地震地下流体观测资料中典型干扰信号的处理及趋势性变化的提取,结果表明,经验模态分解方法能有效地对信号进行分解,是一种无需预设带宽的自适应高通滤波方法,适用于地下流体观测资料的分析处理     

A new type of isotherm for zinc liquid-solid partitioning on δ−MnO2, γ−MnOOH and manganite in seawater

This article deals with the interaction of zinc with δ−MnO₂, γ−MnOOH and manganite existing in natural water systems. The mechanism of the reaction has been studied in detail. From the fact that the “ratio of ion exchange(%)-pH” graph is an “S shaped” curve, it is possible to deduce that the chemical reaction is of the nature of cation exchange. And since the pH range of ion exchange=4, it is possible to further deduce that the reaction can be explained by the mechanism of monovalence cation exchange. The main result of this article is the discovery of a new type of isotherm which has not been mentioned in previous literature here and abroad. This isotherm cannot be represented by any presently available adsorption isotherm equations in marine chemistry. The characteristics of this new type of isotherm are as follows: the isotherm has two “knees” and three “plateaus”, the heights of these three “plateaus” are in the ratio 1:2:3. In order to explain theoretically our new isotherm, this article suggests the application of the principle of interfacial stepwise ion exchange for liquid-solid distribution of minor elements on suspended particulate matter. The corresponding isotherm equation was derived from this theory. The results obtained in this article will be of theoretical guiding significance in the study of the marine geochemistry of zinc. Projects supported by the Science Fund of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.