面向Internet的农业气象产量动态预报

针对信息时代Internet网上用户对产量预报动态查询的需求 ,探讨了面向Inter net的农业气象产量预报的解决方案。试验结果表明 ,由于作物生长发育和产量形成是一个光、温、水、土条件长期、综合作用 ,生物量长期累积的过程 ,因此利用积分回归方法 ,考虑全生育期光、温、水气象因子的综合影响 ,根据已出现的天气实况 ,在假定后期天气条件正常的情况下 ,有可能预测出未来产量的趋势。随着天气实况的逐一出现 ,后期的预报结果可望逐步接近实际值。统计检验和试报结果误差均在允许范围内。     

Characteristics and Origins of Suspended Pyrite in the Mixing Zone of the Yangtze Estuary

For a long time, most studies about pyrite have focused on sediments while only a few have focused on pyrite in water. In this study, a method that combines the scanning electron microscopy(SEM) and the energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry(EDS) was used to compare pyrite particles suspended in water to those in associated bottom sediments, both obtained from the mixing zone of the Yangtze Estuary. It was found that the pyrite particles in the two media have similar morphologies and size distributions. The particle morphology mainly includes two types, single crystal and aggregate, and the particle size mainly ranges from 0.5 to 2 μm. The pyrite particles in water exhibit an increase in relative content towards the sea, and their transport and deposit processes are mainly affected by hydrodynamic conditions. It is concluded that the pyrite particles in the suspended matter mainly derived from the resuspension of sediments, which are products of the early diagenesis. Precursor minerals may appear during the formation of pyrite, but are generally restricted by the diagenetic environment and local microenvironment.     

便携式潮汐观测仪(PET)数据处理研究

介绍了用切比雪夫多项式和最小二乘相结合的数据拟合从重力固体潮观测的秒值提取分钟值和小时值的方法,该方法可以将错误数据自动剔除以得到可靠数据.将提取的数据应用于调和分析,效果良好.     

东南极拉斯曼丘陵石榴斜长角闪岩中角闪石的~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年龄及其地质意义

本文对东南极拉斯曼丘陵出露的石榴斜长角闪岩中的角闪石进行了４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定,分别得到角闪石视年龄１５８６Ｍａ、１０１１～１０８０Ｍａ、７６１Ｍａ和５２９～５８２Ｍａ,角闪石坪年龄１０３６Ｍａ和５５４Ｍａ,角闪石Ａｒ－Ａｒ等时线年龄１０１０Ｍａ,这些同位素年龄证据,首次完整地记录了该区所经历的几乎所有构造变质热事件,为近几年国内外地质学家关于该区构造变质热事件争论的焦点问题,即晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件（Ｇｒｅｎｖｉｌｉａｎ）与早古生代的５００Ｍａ泛非事件（Ｐａｎ－Ａｆｒｉｃａｎ）孰轻孰重以及前者是否存在,提供了答案。角闪石的４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定结果表明,拉斯曼丘陵地区经历了复杂的多期变质演化历史,其原岩可能形成于早－中元古代,占主导地位的应该是晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件,而５００Ｍａ泛非事件则是晚期较强烈的变质热事件。     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

虚拟化在气象局数据中心的应用

通过对虚拟化技术的研究,结合泰州气象局机房布局、数据中心服务器、存储的应用情况以及新业务的增长需求,提出了有针对性的气象业务虚拟化的解决方案。通过新购刀片服务器、FC SAN存储、VMware软件以及对原有的服务器、存储、网络进行整合改造,搭建了气象业务的虚拟化运行模式,最终实现资源的统一调度管理,建成了一个通用性强、扩展性好、可用性高的数据中心。文章同时简述了虚拟化在数据中心的实施过程、应用注意事项、业务迁移适应性分析以及最终的效益。     

体应变观测中的气压干扰机制和排除方法的研究

建立体应变理论气压干扰模型,通过实际观测资料研究了气压对体应变月变和日变的干扰过程,探讨消除干扰的方法,且和水位资料作了对比分析。     

滇、川、黔成矿区的铅锌矿源层（岩）

滇、川、黔铅锌成矿区的矿源层（岩）及其成矿作用，具多矿源层（岩）、多容矿层和多遮挡层共存的特点。矿源层（岩）改造成矿分海西晚期改造生成贫铅锌矿床和燕山期改造生成铅锌富矿床两个旋回，改造成矿的３个主因是：多条继承、发展了基底构造的深一道断层系统，峨眉山玄武岩浆上涌产生的高热能、喷气、矿质和广泛、多中心循环的热卤水，铅锌矿床为沉积─改造─后成成矿。     

山西夏季不同等级降水时空演变特征及其影响要素研究

基于1961—2018年降水观测资料,应用经验正交函数分解（EOF）、大气诊断等方法对山西夏季不同等级降水时空演变特征及其影响要素进行分析。结果表明：① 山西夏季降水量主要由大雨贡献（51.9%）,但在降水频次上以小雨为主。山西大雨与小雨事件存在显著差异。小雨多年平均雨量由南至北递增,而大雨却由南至北递减。此外,EOF表明全区一致型均是不同等级降水中的主空间模态,但在小雨和大雨中高载荷区存在明显差异。② ENSO在影响山西降水特别是大雨中占据主导,而NAO在小雨中作用更为突出。对大气环流异常结构的诊断分析表明,冷（暖）ENSO位相时,源于热带西太平洋并经由南海北上的季风水汽输送增强（减弱）,同时在ENSO和中高纬度大气活动联动调控下,在东亚地区建立的异常反气旋（气旋）可通过其西支南（北）风气流引导（抑制）季风水汽向山西进一步纵深推进,两者共同调配使得山西大雨事件增多（减少）;NAO主要通过一条沿西欧?东欧?乌拉尔山?蒙古高原的高纬度路径对降水施加影响,NAO正（负）位相时,在蒙古高原甚至山西建立的深厚异常（反）气旋通过其南支西（东）风一方面阻挡低纬度季风水汽进入山西,另一方面增强（减弱）山西有限的内陆水汽供应,从而引起山西小雨事件的增多（减少）。     

湘赣边界鹿井铀矿床流体包裹体及成矿机制

位于南岭成矿带南西部的鹿井矿床是华南热液型铀矿的典型代表.为查明其成矿流体来源、性质与演化以及成矿机制,开展了不同成矿阶段石英、萤石及方解石中流体包裹体的显微测温和不同阶段石英的氢?氧同位素分析.矿床地质特征表明成矿过程可划分为(I)粗晶石英+黄铁矿±绿泥石±绢云母、(II)沥青铀矿+硫化物+绿泥石+绢云母+暗灰色微晶...