Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation

To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals. Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural disaster systems.     

综合勘探在武汉军山长江大桥勘察中的应用

单一的勘探手段很难适应高速公路基本建设对勘察设计的高水平、高质量和高效率的要求。将钻探、地震勘探、重力勘探、磁法勘探、电视测井、声波测井等勘探手段综合运用于武汉军山大桥地质勘察中，不但精确探明了桥墩处地层岩性的风化程度，裂隙的位置、产状、规模，岩石完整性等，准确提供了岩石的力学参数，而且缩短了勘察周期，降低了成本。     

场地土的随机地震反应分析

研究了剪切模量随深度呈线性变化时场地土的随机地震反应分析方法, 分别建立了基岩输入地震动加速度功率谱函数为白噪声和过滤白噪声时场地土的随机地震反应分析理论。     

对峡东莲沱组与湖南五强溪组对比问题的认识^＊

峡东莲沱组与湖南板溪群五强溪组或漠滨组之间的关系素有争议,湖南省地矿局区调队将峡东莲沱组与湖南五强溪组对比是值得商榷的问题。本文提出峡东莲沱组沉积时代应晚于长安亚冰期,应与富禄间冰期早期地层即石门县杨家坪渫水河组,湘北、湘西莲沱组及湘中江口组含铁砂岩段相当的认识。     

Paleo-environment and reservoir evolution of the Middle Ordovician Kelimoli Formation in the northern Tianhuan area,Ordos Basin,China: implications for high-quality reservoir development

The Middle Ordovician Kelimoli Formation carbonate reservoirs in the northern Tianhuan area, Ordos Basin, China are main exploration targets. Subsurface core samples, logging, drilling and production data from the area were used to characterise the carbonate reservoir and to construct a genetic model for exploration. The sedimentary facies identified include trough–continental rise, upper–lower slope, platform margin reef-shoal, open platform and evaporation-restricted platform. The slope and platform margin facies are potential zones for high-quality reservoirs. Porosity in the study area comprises intergrain, intercrystal, intragrain and intracrystal pores, fractures and vughs. The Sr/Ba (0.40–4.87) and V/(V + Ni) (0.64–0.97) ratios indicate deposition in a brackish water-dominated environment under reducing conditions, associated with sea-level fluctuations during the deposition of the Kelimoli Formation. The Sr/Ba, V/(V + Ni), ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, δ¹⁸O values and crystal texture of dolomite samples suggest that meteoric water was involved in the diagenetic fluid in the near-surface depositional environment. Isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) and trace elements (Fe and Mn) allowed the identification of seepage-reflux and mixed-water dolomitisation. The crystal textures of the samples consist of micritic, bioclastic and reefal limestones, and dolomite with gypsum, which were easily dissolved during the early diagenetic stage. The epidiagenetic stage was the key period for the development of high-quality reservoirs because of large-scale bedding-parallel karstification from meteoric water. The reservoir zones, dominated by partially filled and unfilled vughs, and fractures, are favourable exploration targets in the northern Tianhuan area.     

Petrophysical characterisation of tight sandstone gas reservoirs using nuclear magnetic resonance: a case study of the upper Paleozoic strata in the Kangning area,eastern margin of the Ordos Basin,China

Residual and movable porosity are significant parameters for characterising petrophysical properties, especially in tight reservoirs. Eight tight sandstone samples from the upper Paleozoic gas-bearing strata in the Kangning area, from the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin, were analysed using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), petrography, and porosity and permeability tests. The lithology and pore types were identified and classified using petrography and SEM. The residual and movable porosity were obtained with NMR. In addition, NMR was used to visualise pore structure and pore size distribution. The results suggest that the upper Paleozoic sandstones in the study area mainly comprise feldspathic litharenite and litharenite. The sandstone porosity and permeability are low, with means of 5.9% and 0.549 mD, respectively. Four pore types exist in the tight sandstones: residual primary pores, grain dissolution pores, micropores (clay-dominated) and microfractures. The T₂ spectra under water-saturated conditions correlate with pore size and can be used to distinguish small and large pores based on the transverse relaxation time cutoff value of 10 ms, which corresponds to a pore diameter of 0.232 μm. Small pores account for 72% of the pores in the tight sandstones. The continuous bimodal T₂ spectra suggest good connectivity between small and large pores, despite the low porosity and permeability. In this study, the movable porosity of the major tight sandstone gas reservoirs is higher than the residual porosity, which confirms the effective evaluation of movable porosity to tight sandstone reservoirs, based on NMR experiments.     

The Fragmentation in a Protoplanetary Disk and the Properties of the Resultant Self-Gravitating Clumps

We study the fragmentation properties in the protoplanetary disk and properties of the resultant self-gravitating clumps using our newly constructed disk model. Our disk model includes the mass inflall term from a molecular cloud core and the photoevaporation winds effect. We adopt the conventional fragmentation criterion to judge whether a protoplanetary disk can fragment. In this work, we follow our previous work to investigate the properties of the resultant self-gravitating clumps. In our calculation, the initial masses of the resultant self-gravitating clumps lie in the range of tens of M_J to more than one hundred of M_J, where M_J is the Jupiter mass. These initial masses can seemingly account for the masses of extrasolar planets in magnitude. We also calculate the subsequent gas accretion of clumps in 1.27 × 10⁴ yr after the formation of self-gravitating clumps. We find that the subsequent gas accretion of self-gravitating clumps is very efficient, and the clump masses grow to hundreds of M_J and the physical radii R_c of clumps increase to about 10 AU. Additionally, we also calculate the orbital migration of clumps. We find that most clumps have short migration timescale to be accreted onto the protostar, and only a small fraction of clumps have long migration timescale (>10⁶ yr) to successfully become gas giant planets. These results are consistent with previous studies.     

Ion chemistry of groundwater and the possible controls within Lhasa River Basin,SW Tibetan Plateau

In order to study the major ion chemistry and controls of groundwater, 65 groundwater samples were collected and their major ions measured from wells within Lhasa River Basin. Groundwater has the characteristics of slightly alkaline and moderate total dissolved solid (TDS). TDS concentration ranged from 122.0 to 489.9 mg/L with a median value of 271.2 mg/L. Almost all the groundwater samples suited for drinking and irrigation. The major cations of groundwater are Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺, accounting for 59.6 and 31.3% of the cations, respectively. Meanwhile, HCO₃^? and SO₄^2? constituted about 56.7 and 36.9% of the anions, respectively, in Lhasa River Basin. The hydrochemical type of groundwater is HCO₃-SO₄-Ca-Mg. The chemical composition of groundwater samples located in the middle of Gibbs model, which indicates that the major chemical process of groundwater is controlled by rock weathering. Carbonate weathering was the dominant hydro-geochemical process controlling the concentration of major ions in groundwater within Lhasa River Basin, but silicate weathering also plays an important role.     

Geochemistry of organic matter and elements of black shale during weathering in Northern Guizhou,Southwestern China: Their mobilization and inter-connection

Different from previous studies on effect of weathering upon geochemical variation along a single weathered profile, this paper provides a new methodology validated by comparing a weathered outcrop samples and their stratigraphic counterpart un-weathered core samples in a nearby shallow borehole. This outcrop and borehole penetrated the Ordovician-Silurian Wufeng–Longmaxi shales, located in the same anticline structure in the northern part of Guizhou Province, Southern China. The mineral composition, major, trace and rare earth elements (REEs) composition and Rock-Eval parameters of outcrop and core samples were analyzed and compared. Organic matter (OM) was observed in the microscope and extracted for elements analysis. The results show that short-term weathering still has significant influence on OM, mineral and elemental composition of black shales. The elements composition shows the outcrop profile was moderately weathered. The REEs compositions do not alter much during weathering process and the REEs composition and their relative ratios still are valid for rock origin determination. The OM, mainly composed by graptolite and bitumen, even entering the highly-over thermal maturity, is still sensitive to the weathering with a systematic loss 30–50% of TOC along the outcrop profile, which suggests that the OM consumption is predominantly controlled by weathering duration and the distance from the weathering surface. In turn, OM has significant influence on the trace elements transportation behavior during weathering. Some trace elements associated with the OM such as V, Cr, Th, U, Ni and Co, change significantly in their absolute concentration during weathering, but their relative ratios do not necessarily change too much and might be still reliable proxies for paleo-environmental determination. The mobility of shale minerals during weathering is in the following order: plagioclase?>?potassium feldspar and dolomite >pyrite and OM. Short-term weathering can also result in considerable transportation of elements and significant variation of minerals content in black shale, which may pose potentially high environmental and engineering risk in the regions rich in black shale.     

An insight into the surface velocity of Inylchek Glacier and its effect on Lake Merzbacher during 2006–2016 with Landsat time-series imagery

Mountain glacier is one of the extremely sensitive indicators for climate change, and its surface motion distribution and corresponding variation are valuable information for understanding ice mass exchange and glacier dynamics. This paper presents the long-term ice velocity distributions of Inylchek Glacier in the Tianshan region by pixel-tracking algorithm with time-series Landsat imagery acquired during 2006–2016. Then the monitored ice motion fields of Inylchek Glacier were carefully analyzed and revealed a generally similar spatial distribution characteristic. Most of the ice of the North Inylchek Glacier remains in a stagnant state except for the upstream part, but a relatively high velocity of 20–40 cm/day with an RMSE of 3 cm/day was observed on most part of the South Inylchek Glacier, except for the slow-moving glacier terminus. We also state the glacier dynamics around Lake Merzbacher and their possible effect on its glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk. Besides, the surface velocity distribution on South Inylchek Glacier surface during the ablation period from 2014 to 2016 was also established and also compared with annual velocity. The corresponding difference yields that there is a positive relation between ice motion and temperature variation. Therefore, the time-series ice surface motion yielded by the Landsat imagery thus could provide us an efficient and low-cost way to analyze the current state and changes in glaciers, thanks to the continuous and regular spaceborne observations provided by the Landsat satellites.