Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE TOTAL LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSITION OF SIX STRAINS OF MARINE DIATOMS

The effect of light intensity ( 1500 Ix and 5000 Ix) on the total lipid and fatty acid composition of six strains of marine diatoms Cylindrotheca fusiformis (B211 ), Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bl14, Bl18 and B221) Nitzschia closterium (B222) and Chaetoceros gracilis (B13) was investigated.The total lipids of B13, Bl14, and B211 grown at 5000 Ix were lower than those grown at 1500 Ix. No evident changes were observed in Bl18, B221 and B222. Fatty acid composition changed considerably at different light intensity although no consistent correlation between the relative proportion of a single FA and light intensity. The major fatty acids of the 6 strains were 14:0, 16:0, 16:l(n- 7) and 20:5(n-3) . Cylindrothecafusiformis had high percentage of 20:4n - 6 (9.2 - 10.9% ) . The total polyunsaturated fatty acid /rl all 6 strains decreased with increasing light intensity. The percentage of the highly unsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing light intensity in all strains except Chaetoceros gracilis.     

广东省拖网网囊调查

为实施中华人民共和国国家标准《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》,对广东省范围内拖网网囊现状进行摸底调查,结果表明,广东省沿海拖网渔船现用网囊网目尺寸(内径)在16.7～35.2 mm范围内,总体平均为27 mm,均未能达到1989年国家技术监督局发布的中华人民共和国国家标准--《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》--内径39 mm.     

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农业自然资源据其在农业利用过程中的地位可分为两类:一类是生成农业自然资源的环境,另一类为可资直接利用的自然生成物(即狭义的农业自然资源)。陕西秦巴山区自然环境的主要特点是:复合山体高峻庞大,地跨暖温带和北亚热带,垂直分异明显。区内有:森林、草场、野生生物、林特产与农作物等多种农业自然资源。据此,提出了本区农业自然资源的开发利用途径。     

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。     

形状误差圆柱度的优化计算

建立了简明的圆柱度数学模型，并采用优化方法进行求解，为圆柱度误差值的评定提供了较理想的计算方法。     

元岭金矿蚀变破碎带特征及其找矿意义

根据对元岭金矿三条蚀变破碎带一般地质特征、微量元素特征的对比研究，并借鉴邻近矿区蚀变破碎带的矿化特征，本文阐明了元岭蚀变破碎带矿化的有利构造部位，总结了蚀变破碎带特征与矿化强度之间的关系，指出蚀变破碎带的矿化蚀变元素为中低温组合，矿化蚀变愈强则参与元素的种类愈多、数量愈大。围岩性质对矿化蚀变有一定影响，围岩中的易迁移亲铜元素和亲硫铁族无素对矿化有利。据此，为进一步成矿预测、评价蚀变破碎带的含矿性提供依据。     

STUDY ON GIS FOR YIELD ESTIMATION BY REMOTE SENSING IN JILIN MAIZE BELT

ＳＴＵＤＹ　ＯＮ　ＧＩＳ　ＦＯＲ　ＹＩＥＬＤ　ＥＳＴＩＭＡＴＩＯＮ　ＢＹ　ＲＥＭＯＴＥ　ＳＥＮＳＩＮＧ　ＩＮ　ＪＩＬＩＮ　ＭＡＩＺＥ　ＢＥＬＴＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＧＩＳＦＯＲＹＩＥＬＤＥＳＴＩＭＡＴＩＯＮＢＹＲＥＭＯＴＥＳＥＮＳＩＮＧＩＮＪＩＬＩＮＭＡＩＺ...     

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