Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Governing geoengineering research: why, when and how?

Research on geoengineering – deliberate management of the Earth’s climate system – is being increasingly discussed within the science and policy communities. While justified as necessary in order to expand the range of options available to policy makers in the future, geoengineering research has already engendered public controversy. Proposed projects have been protested or cancelled, and calls for a governance framework abound. In this paper, we consider the reasons why geoengineering research might be subject to additional governance and suggest mechanisms that might be usefully applied in developing such a framework. We consider criteria for governance as raised by a review of the growing literature on geoengineering and other controversial scientific topics. We suggest three families of concern that any governance research framework must respond to: the direct physical risks of the research; the transparency and responsibility in decision making for the research; and the larger societal meanings of the research. We review what mechanisms might be available to respond to these three families of concern, and consider how these might apply to geoengineering research.     

Application of INSAT satellite cloud-imagery data for site evaluation work of proposed GRACE observatory

The weather-imageries from the INSAT group of satellites provide reliable and concurrent multistation cloud-cover data — an important input for a proper selection of an observatory site for optical, infra-red and γ-ray astronomy work. Using these data, it is shown that Gurushikar, Mt. Abu, promises to be an excellent site for setting up the proposed GRACE facility for high-sensitivity Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Cerenkov Experiments.     

Domestic and international arrivals of NOBOB (no ballast on board) vessels to lower Chesapeake Bay

In examining ship-mediated biological invasions, most research and treatment development has focused on ballast water. Another vector that has gained attention recently is vessels arriving in a "no ballast on board" (NOBOB) condition. Such ships retain relatively small, unpumpable volumes of water and sediment in their ballast tanks. Nonetheless, these unpumpable portions can represent great ecological risk. This scenario is relevant in the Great Lakes, which have experienced a dramatic series of introductions, despite most vessels arriving there as NOBOBs since 1994. We examined shipping patterns of NOBOBs arriving to lower Chesapeake Bay to begin evaluating their risk of biopollution. Only 14% of ships arrive as NOBOBs, and of those, 17% depart to another port in the upper bay. Most NOBOBs arrive from or leave for other US ports; proximate trans-Atlantic crossings are few. Given the nature of their operations, we conclude NOBOBs may represent a risk for aquatic nuisance species invasions to Chesapeake Bay.     

Emission line shapes produced by dissociative excitation of atmospheric gases

Special line shapes are derived fro the λ 1356 Å (${}^5\text{S}{}^0\text{-}{}^3\text{P}$) transition of atomic oxygen from metastable (${}^5\text{S}{}^0\text{-}{}^3\text{P}$) time-of-flight spectra produced by electron impact dissociative excitation of O₂, CO₂, CO, and NO, and they are compared with the broadened λ 1304 A resonance line shapes deduced by Poland and Lawrence (1973) from atomic oxygen absorption studies. The non-thermal line shapes for both airglow emission features are shown to have an effective width comparable to a 60,000 K thermal doppler line shape for an electron impact energy of 100eV. The variation of the effective line width with electron-impact energy from threshold to 300 eV is given. Since the effective line width of the resonance radiation produced by dissociative excitation is very large compared with the doppler absorption widths of the ambient O atoms at normal exospheric temperatures, the anomalously broadened resonance lines will propagate through a planetary atmosphere as though they were optically thin. Thus, electron-impact dissociation of CO and CO₂ will contribute to the observed optically thin component of the λ 1304 Å emission in the upper atmospheres of Venus and Mars. However, the process cannot account for more than 10% of the observed optically thin emission because of the small magnitude of the excitation cross-section and the comparatively high-energy threshold for the process. The possibility that the source of the kinetically energetic $\text{O}\text{(}{}^3\text{S}$) atoms is the dissociative recombination of vibrationally excited CO₂⁺ ions is discussed.     

Mars: Experimental study of albedo changes caused by dust fallout

An experimental study was undertaken to determine how the spectral and photometric properties of representative Martian areas are affected by fallout of atmospheric dust suspended during dust forms. A laboratory apparatus was used to simulate the uniform fallout and deposition of particles 1 to 5 μm in diameter. Spectral measurements from 0.4- to 1.2-μm wavelengths and photometric measurements at several wavelengths were made for a number of Mars-analog materials before and after deposition of 6 × 10^?5 to 1.5 × 10^?3 g/cm² of simulated fallout. These results indicate that the spectral and photometric properties of Martian regions can be affected significantly even by minute amounts of fallout. For instance, the reflectance at 0.56 μm of an average dark area will increase by 35% after deposition of only 9 × 10^?5 g/cm², and by 70% after deposition of 1.5 × 10^?4 g/cm². Thus the fallout from even one dust storm season (～2 × 10^?3 g/cm²) is sufficient to change significantly the spectral and photometric characteristics of the substrate material, if the fallout were ubiquitous over the surface and if no competing processes of dust removal from surface grains occured.