Relative motion of satellites exploiting the super-integrability of Kepler’s problem

This paper builds upon the work of Palmer and Imre exploring the relative motion of satellites on neighbouring Keplerian orbits. We make use of a general geometrical setting from Hamiltonian systems theory to obtain analytical solutions of the variational Kepler equations in an Earth centred inertial coordinate frame in terms of the relevant conserved quantities: relative energy, relative angular momentum and the relative eccentricity vector. The paper extends the work on relative satellite motion by providing solutions about any elliptic, parabolic or hyperbolic reference trajectory, including the zero angular momentum case. The geometrical framework assists the design of complex formation flying trajectories. This is demonstrated by the construction of a tetrahedral formation, described through the relevant conserved quantities, for which the satellites are on highly eccentric orbits around the Sun to visit the Kuiper belt.     

Benthic meiofauna community composition at polluted and non-polluted sites in New Zealand intertidal environments

Meiofauna composition was investigated for six field sites, including polluted and non-polluted sites, within two regions (Auckland and Bay of Plenty) during winter (July-August 2004) in the North Island of New Zealand. Physico-chemical parameters were measured during the sampling period and meiofauna distribution and abundance were compared with these measured parameters. Analysis of meiofauna abundance indicated that foraminiferans, nematodes and ostracods were the taxa that contributed to the variability between field sites within the Auckland region. However, no clear taxa dominance was seen in the Bay of Plenty region. Comparison of meiofauna abundance and physico-chemical parameters was done using multivariate analysis (PRIMER). However, no clear relationships between the parameters were observed in any field site in either region. The Shannon-Weiner index of diversity did not show any clear differentiation between polluted and non-polluted field sites. Therefore, from the present study, the taxa or physico-chemical parameters used could not effectively characterise pollution at the investigated field sites.     

Multi-zone fusion crust formation and classification of the 2004 Auckland meteorite (L6, S5, and W0)

On June 12, 2004, a meteorite passed through Earth's atmosphere and landed under the television in the living room of a house in Auckland, New Zealand. Textural characteristics, the chemistry of olivine (Fa_23–24) and orthopyroxene (Fs_20.7), and the bulk rock triple oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁷O + 3.1; δ¹⁸O + 4.2‰) from the interior of the completely unweathered (W0) 1.3 kg meteorite, hereafter referred to as Auckland, suggest it to be a strongly metamorphosed fragment from the interior of a low iron ordinary chondrite (L6) parent asteroid. The occurrence of maskelynite but shock fracturing of olivine and pyroxene indicates Auckland experienced extreme shock metamorphism (S5), likely during Ordovician fragmentation of the asteroid parent. The fusion crust consists of three zones: (1) an innermost zone containing narrow Fe-Ni-S-bearing veins that migrated along pre-existing shock fractures in olivine and pyroxene; (2) a middle zone in which the meteorite partially melted to form a silicate glass and immiscible blebs of metal and troilite, and is accompanied by unmelted silicate minerals; and (3) an approximately 0.1 mm wide vesicular-rich outermost layer that largely melted, volatilizing sulfides, before quenching to form glass and olivine. Oxygen isotope values of the bulk rock and/or maskelynite of melted rim and modified substrate are 2–3‰ greater than the meteorite interior and indicate that up to 19% of terrestrial atmospheric O₂ was incorporated into the fusion crust during the formation. The fusion crust migrated inwards as ablation occurred, enabling melting, migration, and re-precipitation ± loss of sulfide and metal components, with the prominent glassy rim therefore forming from an already chemically modified zone.     

Pediment response to drainage basin evolution in south-central Arizona

The Sonoran Desert portion of the Basin and Range physiographic province contains a number of streams that now flow across once-closed basins. We explore here the research questions of if and how granitic rock pediments respond to the transition from rimming endorheic basins to bordering through-flowing streams. Granitic rock pediments of the northern Usery and eastern McDowell Mountains once graded to the closed Miocene–Pliocene Pemberton basin that occupied the present-day location of the confluence of the Salt and Verde Rivers. The process of lake overflow, which integrated these rivers, first aggraded fill terraces that, in turn, caused aggradation of a mantle of transported grus on bedrock pediments. Subsequent episodic incision of the Salt and Verde rivers lowered the base level; this led to the development of erosional features such as rolling topography of a degrading pediment mantle; exposure of the former piedmont angle and its associated zones of enhanced bedrock decay and regolith carbonate; and exposure of spheroidally weathered bedrock and emerging tors, some of which experienced 20^th century erosion. The granitic pediments of the former Pemberton Basin, which now transport grus to the Salt and Verde rivers, have actively adjusted to aggradational and degradational events associated with drainage integration and do not appear to be inherited from an ancient wet climatic interval.     

Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.     

Global trends and patterns of drought from space

This paper analyzes changes in areas under droughts over the past three decades and alters our understanding of how amplitude and frequency of droughts differ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). Unlike most previous global-scale studies that have been based on climate models, this study is based on satellite gauge-adjusted precipitation observations. Here, we show that droughts in terms of both amplitude and frequency are more variable over land in the SH than in the NH. The results reveal no significant trend in the areas under drought over land in the past three decades. However, after investigating land in the NH and the SH separately, the results exhibit a significant positive trend in the area under drought over land in the SH, while no significant trend is observed over land in the NH. We investigate the spatial patterns of the wetness and dryness over the past three decades, and we show that several regions, such as the southwestern United States, Texas, parts of the Amazon, the Horn of Africa, northern India, and parts of the Mediterranean region, exhibit a significant drying trend. The global trend maps indicate that central Africa, parts of southwest Asia (e.g., Thailand, Taiwan), Central America, northern Australia, and parts of eastern Europe show a wetting trend during the same time span. The results of this satellite-based study disagree with several model-based studies which indicate that droughts have been increasing over land. On the other hand, our findings concur with some of the observation-based studies.     

Response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a reversal of greenhouse gas increases

The reversibility of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in multi-model experiments using global climate models (GCMs) where CO₂ concentrations are increased by 1 or 2 % per annum to 2× or 4× preindustrial conditions. After a period of stabilisation the CO₂ is decreased back to preindustrial conditions. In most experiments when the CO₂ decreases, the AMOC recovers before becoming anomalously strong. This "overshoot" is up to an extra 18.2Sv or 104 % of its preindustrial strength, and the period with an anomalously strong AMOC can last for several hundred years. The magnitude of this overshoot is shown to be related to the build up of salinity in the subtropical Atlantic during the previous period of high CO₂ levels. The magnitude of this build up is partly related to anthropogenic changes in the hydrological cycle. The mechanisms linking the subtropical salinity increase to the subsequent overshoot are analysed, supporting the relationship found. This understanding is used to explain differences seen in some models and scenarios. In one experiment there is no overshoot because there is little salinity build up, partly as a result of model differences in the hydrological cycle response to increased CO₂ levels and partly because of a less aggressive scenario. Another experiment has a delayed overshoot, possibly as a result of a very weak AMOC in that GCM when CO₂ is high. This study identifies aspects of overshoot behaviour that are robust across a multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble, and those that differ between experiments. These results could inform an assessment of the real-world AMOC response to decreasing CO₂.     

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.