Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

High‐frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics,primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river‐system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub‐daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190 000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Although 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in‐stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic, and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. © 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Settlement-Size Larval Red Drum (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sciaenops ocellatus</Emphasis>) Respond to Estuarine Chemical Cues

Planktonic larvae combine directed swimming and functional sensory systems to locate benthic habitats. Some adult marine fishes use chemical cues for orientation to specific habitats, but olfactory function for estuarine fish larvae has received little research attention. This laboratory study quantified behavioral responses of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) larvae to estuarine chemical cues to examine the role of water chemistry as an orientation cue for locating or remaining in settlement habitat. Spontaneous activity (kinesis) was measured for pre-settlement-size larvae exposed to artificial sea water (as a negative control) and one of six treatments (sterilized sea water, sea water from a channel at ebb tide, sea water from a channel at flood tide, sea water from seagrass habitat, tannic acid dissolved in sterilized sea water, or lignin dissolved in sterilized sea water). Larvae that reached a size of competency to settle (approximately 10 mm standard length) swam faster when exposed to lignin dissolved in sterilized sea water than in other treatments; smaller larvae showed no response. Olfactory preference (taxis) was tested using a paired-choice experiment. Settlement-size larvae preferred water from seagrass beds to artificial sea water. The observed chemokinesis and chemotaxis in response to lignin dissolved in sterilized sea water and sea water from a seagrass bed demonstrate that red drum larvae can distinguish and respond to different water masses and suggest that chemical stimuli from seagrass settlement habitat may aid in orientation and movement to or retention in suitable settlement sites.     

Book review

Offshore Soil Mechanics edited by Philip George and David Wood. Cambridge University Engineering Department and Lloyd's Register of Shipping, London, 1976. 468 pp. £7.50 + shipping.

Beach Processes and Sedimentation by Paul D. Komar. Prentice‐Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1976. 429 pp., $26.95.     

A climate-isotope regression model with seasonally-varying and time-integrated relationships

This study investigates multivariable and multiscalar climate-??¹⁸O relationships, through the use of statistical modeling and simulation. Three simulations, of increasing complexity, are used to generate time series of daily precipitation ??¹⁸O. The first simulation uses a simple local predictor (daily rainfall amount). The second simulation uses the same local predictor plus a larger-scale climate variable (a daily NAO index), and the third simulation uses the same local and non-local predictors, but with varying seasonal effect. Since these simulations all operate at the daily timescale, they can be used to investigate the climate-??¹⁸O patterns that arise at daily-interannual timescales. These simulations show that (1) complex links exist between climate-??¹⁸O relationships at different timescales, (2) the short-timescale relationships that underlie monthly predictor-??¹⁸O relationships can be recovered using only monthly ??¹⁸O and daily predictor variables, (3) a comparison between the simulations and observational data can elucidate the physical processes at work. The regression models developed are then applied to a 2-year dataset of monthly precipitation ??¹⁸O from Dublin and compared with event-scale data from the same site, which illustrates that the methodology works, and that the third regression model explains about 55% of the variance in ??¹⁸O at this site. The methodology introduced here can potentially be applied to historic monthly ??¹⁸O data, to better understand how multiple-integrated influences at short timescales give rise to climate-??¹⁸O patterns at monthly-interannual timescales.     

The effect of methanogenesis on the geochemistry of low temperature water–Fe0–basalt reactions

Hydrogen gas produced in the subsurface from the hydration of mafic rocks is known to be a major energy source for chemolithotrophic life in extreme environments such as hydrothermal vents. The possibility that in situ anaerobic microorganisms present in the deep subsurface are sustained by low temperature H₂-generating water–rock reactions taking place around them is being investigated. Whether the growth and activity of H₂-utilizing microbes directly influences aqueous geochemistry, rates of mineral dissolution, and the chemical composition of the alteration products is also being quantitatively evaluated.To explore how microorganisms are affected by water–rock reactions, and how their activity may in turn affect reaction progress, laboratory experiments have been conducted to monitor the growth of a methanogenic Archaea in the presence of H_2(g) produced from low temperature water–Fe⁰–basalt reactions. In these systems, the conversion of Fe(II) to Fe(III) and subsequent hydrolysis of water is responsible for the production of H_2(g). To characterize key components of the geochemical system, time series measurements of H₂ and CH₄ gas concentrations, Fe and Si aqueous concentrations, and spatially resolved synchrotron-based analyses of microscale Fe distribution and speciation were conducted. Culture experiments were compared with an abiotic control to document changes in the geochemistry both in the presence and absence of the methanogen.In the control abiotic batch experiment, H₂ was continuously produced, until the headspace became saturated, while in the biotic experiments, microbial consumption of H₂ for methanogenesis draws H₂ down and produces CH₄. Purging the headspace gas reinitiates H₂ and CH₄ production in abiotic and culture experiments, respectively. Mass balance analysis of the amount of CH₄ produced suggests that the total H₂ production in microbial experiments does not exceed the abiotic experiment. Soluble Si concentrations, while buffered to relatively constant values, were higher in culture experiments than the abiotic control.Iron_(aq) concentrations appear to respond to perturbations of H₂ and CH₄ gas concentrations in both culture experiments and the abiotic control. A pulse of Fe preceded the rise in either H₂ or CH₄ production, and as the gas concentrations increased the Fe_(aq) decreased. Iron-bearing mineral assemblages change with increasing reaction time and mineral assemblages vary between culture experiments and the abiotic control. These geochemical trends suggest that there are different reaction paths between the culture experiments and the abiotic control.The hydration of mafic rocks is a common geologic reaction and one that has taken place on Earth for the majority of its history and is postulated to occur on Mars. These reactions are important because of their effect on the rheology and geochemistry of the ocean crust. While most often studied at temperatures of ～250 °C, this work suggests that at lower temperatures microorganisms may have a profound effect on what has long been thought to be solely an abiotic reaction, and may produce diagnostic mineral assemblages that will be preserved in the geological record.     

Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years

The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from ad 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a long-term perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30–60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural climate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change.     

Late Pleistocene outburst flooding from pluvial Lake Alvord into the Owyhee River, Oregon

At least one large, late Pleistocene flood traveled into the Owyhee River as a result of a rise and subsequent outburst from pluvial Lake Alvord in southeastern Oregon. Lake Alvord breached Big Sand Gap in its eastern rim after reaching an elevation of 1292 m, releasing 11.3 km³ of water into the adjacent Coyote Basin as it eroded the Big Sand Gap outlet channel to an elevation of about 1280 m. The outflow filled and then spilled out of Coyote Basin through two outlets at 1278 m and into Crooked Creek drainage, ultimately flowing into the Owyhee and Snake Rivers. Along Crooked Creek, the resulting flood eroded canyons, stripped bedrock surfaces, and deposited numerous boulder bars containing imbricated clasts up to 4.1 m in diameter, some of which are located over 30 m above the present-day channel.Critical depth calculations at Big Sand Gap show that maximum outflow from a 1292- to 1280-m drop in Lake Alvord was  10,000 m³ s^− 1. Flooding became confined to a single channel approximately 40 km downstream of Big Sand Gap, where step-backwater calculations show that a much larger peak discharge of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 is required to match the highest geologic evidence of the flood in this channel. This inconsistency can be explained by (1) a single 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood that caused at least 13 m of vertical incision in the channel (hence enlarging the channel cross-section); (2) multiple floods of 10,000 m³ s^− 1 or less, each producing some incision of the channel; or (3) an earlier flood of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 creating the highest flood deposits and crossed drainage divides observed along Crooked Creek drainage, followed by a later 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood associated with the most recent shorelines in Alvord and Coyote Basins.Well-developed shorelines of Lake Alvord at 1280 m and in Coyote Basin at 1278 m suggest that after the initial flood, postflood overflow persisted for an extended period, connecting Alvord and Coyote Basins with the Owyhee River of the Columbia River drainage. Surficial weathering characteristics and planktonic freshwater diatoms in Lake Alvord sediment stratigraphically below Mt. St. Helens set Sg tephra, suggest deep open-basin conditions at  13–14 ka (¹⁴C yr) and that the flood and prominent shorelines date to about this time. But geomorphic and sedimentological evidence also show that Alvord and Coyote Basins held older, higher-elevation lakes that may have released earlier floods down Crooked Creek.     

Particle fluxes in San Pedro Basin, California: A four-year record of sedimentation and physical forcing

Moored sediment traps were deployed from January 2004 through December 2007 at depths of 550 and 800 m in San Pedro Basin (SPB), CA (33°33.0′N, 118°26.5′W). Additionally, floating sediment traps were deployed at 100 and 200 m for periods of 12-24 h during spring 2005, fall 2007, and spring 2008. Average annual fluxes of mass, particulate organic carbon (POC), ??¹³C_org, particulate organic nitrogen (PON), ??¹⁵N-PON, biogenic silica (bSiO₂), calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), and detrital material (non-biogenic) were coupled with climate records and used to examine sedimentation patterns, vertical flux variability, and organic matter sources to this coastal region. Annual average flux values were determined by binning data by month and averaging the monthly averages. The average annual fluxes to 550 m were 516±42 mg/m² d for mass (sdom of the monthly averages, n=117), 3.18±0.26 mmol C/m² d for POC (n=111), 0.70±0.05 mmol/m² d for CaCO₃ (n=110), 1.31±0.21 mmol/m² d for bSiO₂ (n=115), and 0.35±0.03 mmol/m² d for PON (n=111). Fluxes to 800 and to 550 m were similar, within 10%. Annual average values of ??¹³C_org at 550 m were −21.8±0.2‰ (n=108), and ??¹⁵N averages were 8.9±0.2‰ (n=95). The timing of both high and low flux particle collection was synchronous between the two traps. Given the frequency of trap cup rotation (4-11 days), this argues for particle settling rates ≥83 m/d for both high and low flux periods. The moored traps were deployed over one of the wettest (2004-2005, 74.6 cm rainfall) and driest (2006-2007, 6.6 cm) rain years on record. There was poor correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient, 95% confidence interval) of detrital mass flux with: C_org/N ratio (r=0.10, p=0.16); ??¹⁵N (r=−0.19, p=0.02); and rainfall (r=0.5, p=0.43), suggesting that runoff does not immediately cause increases in particle fluxes 15 km offshore. ??¹³C_org values suggest that most POC falling to the basin floor is marine derived. Coherence between satellite-derived chlorophyll a records from the trap location (±9 km² resolution) and SST data indicates that productivity and export occurs within a few days of upwelling and both of these parameters are reasonable predictors of POC export, with a time lag of a few days to 2 weeks (with no time lag—SeaWiFS chlorophyll a and POC flux, r=0.25, p=0.0014; chlorophyll a and bSiO₂ flux, r=0.28, p=0.0002).     

Biological structures as a source of habitat heterogeneity and biodiversity on the deep ocean margins

Biological structures exert a major influence on species diversity at both local and regional scales on deep continental margins. Some organisms use other species as substrates for attachment, shelter, feeding or parasitism, but there may also be mutual benefits from the association. Here, we highlight the structural attributes and biotic effects of the habitats that corals, sea pens, sponges and xenophyophores offer other organisms. The environmental setting of the biological structures influences their species composition. The importance of benthic species as substrates seems to increase with depth as the complexity of the surrounding geological substrate and food supply decline. There are marked differences in the degree of mutualistic relationships between habitat-forming taxa. This is especially evident for scleractinian corals, which have high numbers of facultative associates (commensals) and few obligate associates (mutualists), and gorgonians, with their few commensals and many obligate associates. Size, flexibility and architectural complexity of the habitat-forming organism are positively related to species diversity for both sessile and mobile species. This is mainly evident for commensal species sharing a facultative relationship with their host. Habitat complexity is enhanced by the architecture of biological structures, as well as by biological interactions. Colony morphology has a great influence on feeding efficiency for suspension feeders. Suspension feeding, habitat-forming organisms modify the environment to optimize their food uptake. This environmental advantage is also passed on to associated filter-feeding species. These effects are poorly understood but represent key points for understanding ecosystems and biodiversity on continental margins. In this paper we explore the contributions of organisms and the biotic structures they create (rather than physical modifications) to habitat heterogeneity and diversity on the deep continental margins.