Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model

The current paper presents landslide hazard analysis around the Cameron area, Malaysia, using advanced artificial neural networks with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landslide locations were determined in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations. Topographical and geological data as well as satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Ten factors were selected for landslide hazard including: 1) factors related to topography as slope, aspect, and curvature; 2) factors related to geology as lithology and distance from lineament; 3) factors related to drainage as distance from drainage; and 4) factors extracted from TM satellite images as land cover and the vegetation index value. An advanced artificial neural network model has been used to analyze these factors in order to establish the landslide hazard map. The back-propagation training method has been used for the selection of the five different random training sites in order to calculate the factor’s weight and then the landslide hazard indices were computed for each of the five hazard maps. Finally, the landslide hazard maps (five cases) were prepared using GIS tools. Results of the landslides hazard maps have been verified using landslide test locations that were not used during the training phase of the neural network. Our findings of verification results show an accuracy of 69%, 75%, 70%, 83% and 86% for training sites 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. GIS data was used to efficiently analyze the large volume of data, and the artificial neural network proved to be an effective tool for landslide hazard analysis. The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the presumptive hazard map and the existing data on landslide areas.     

Wave-dependence of friction velocity,roughness length,and drag coefficient over coastal and open water surfaces by using three databases

The parameterization of friction velocity, roughness length, and the drag coefficient over coastal zones and open water surfaces enables us to better understand the physical processes of air-water interaction. In context of measurements from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment (HEXMAX), we recently proposed wave-parameter dependent approaches to sea surface friction velocity and the aerodynamic roughness by using the dimensional analysis method. To extend the application of these approaches to a range of natural surface conditions, the present study is to assess this approach by using both coastal shallow (RASEX) and open water surface measurements (Lake Ontario and Grand Banks ERS-1 SAR) where wind speeds were greater than 6.44 m s^-1. Friction velocities, the surface aerodynamic roughness, and the neutral drag coefficient estimated by these approaches under moderate wind conditions were compared with the measurements mentioned above. Results showed that the coefficients in these approaches for coastal shallow water surface differ from those for open water surfaces, and that the aerodynamic roughness length in terms of wave age or significant wave height should be treated differently for coastal shallow and open water surfaces.     

Role of horizontal density advection in seasonal deepening of the mixed layer in the subtropical Southeast Pacific

The mechanisms behind the seasonal deepening of the mixed layer(ML) in the subtropical Southeast Pacific were investigated using the monthly Argo data from 2004 to 2012. The region with a deep ML(more than 175 m) was found in the region of(22?–30?S, 105?–90?W), reaching its maximum depth(～200 m) near(27?–28?S, 100?W) in September. The relative importance of horizontal density advection in determining the maximum ML location is discussed qualitatively. Downward Ekman pumping is key to determining the eastern boundary of the deep ML region. In addition, zonal density advection by the subtropical countercurrent(STCC) in the subtropical Southwest Pacific determines its western boundary, by carrying lighter water to strengthen the stratification and form a "shallow tongue" of ML depth to block the westward extension of the deep ML in the STCC region. The temperature advection by the STCC is the main source for large heat loss from the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Finally, the combined effect of net surface heat flux and meridional density advection by the subtropical gyre determines the northern and southern boundaries of the deep ML region: the ocean heat loss at the surface gradually increases from 22?S to 35?S, while the meridional density advection by the subtropical gyre strengthens the stratification south of the maximum ML depth and weakens the stratification to the north. The freshwater flux contribution to deepening the ML during austral winter is limited. The results are useful for understanding the role of ocean dynamics in the ML formation in the subtropical Southeast Pacific.     

Global trends and patterns of drought from space

This paper analyzes changes in areas under droughts over the past three decades and alters our understanding of how amplitude and frequency of droughts differ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). Unlike most previous global-scale studies that have been based on climate models, this study is based on satellite gauge-adjusted precipitation observations. Here, we show that droughts in terms of both amplitude and frequency are more variable over land in the SH than in the NH. The results reveal no significant trend in the areas under drought over land in the past three decades. However, after investigating land in the NH and the SH separately, the results exhibit a significant positive trend in the area under drought over land in the SH, while no significant trend is observed over land in the NH. We investigate the spatial patterns of the wetness and dryness over the past three decades, and we show that several regions, such as the southwestern United States, Texas, parts of the Amazon, the Horn of Africa, northern India, and parts of the Mediterranean region, exhibit a significant drying trend. The global trend maps indicate that central Africa, parts of southwest Asia (e.g., Thailand, Taiwan), Central America, northern Australia, and parts of eastern Europe show a wetting trend during the same time span. The results of this satellite-based study disagree with several model-based studies which indicate that droughts have been increasing over land. On the other hand, our findings concur with some of the observation-based studies.     

Characteristics of carbonyl compounds in ambient air of Shanghai,China

The levels of carbonyl compounds in Shanghai ambient air were measured in five periods from January 2007 to October 2007 (covering winter, high-air-pollution days, spring, summer and autumn). A total of 114 samples were collected and eighteen carbonyls were identified. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were the most abundant carbonyls and their mean concentrations of 19.40 ± 12.00, 15.92 ± 12.07 and 11.86 ± 7.04 μg m⁻³ respectively, in the daytime for five sampling periods. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde showed similar diurnal profiles with peak mixing ratios in the morning and early afternoon during the daytime. Their mean concentrations were highest in summer and lowest in winter. Acetone showed reversed seasonal variation. The high molecular weight (HMW, ≥C5) carbonyls also showed obvious diurnal variations with higher concentrations in the daytime in summer and autumn, while they were all not detected in winter. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde played an important role in removing OH radicals in the atmosphere, but the contribution of acetone was below 1%. The carbonyls levels in high-air-pollution days were reported. More carbonyl species with higher concentrations were found in high-air-pollution days than in spring. These carbonyls were transported with other pollutants from north and northwest in March 27 to April 2, 2007 and then mixed with local sources. Comparing with Beijing and Guangzhou, the concentrations of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde in Shanghai were the highest, which indicated that the air pollution in Shanghai was even worse than expected.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in Eastern China as simulated by CCSM4

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO(+PDO- AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO(-PDO + AMO). For the +PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley(YR),when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the-PDO + AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970 s and late 1990 s.     

An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.     

The Miocene Costa Giardini diatreme,Iblean Mountains,southern Italy: model for maar-diatreme formation on a submerged carbonate platform

In this paper we present a model for the growth of a maar-diatreme complex in a shallow marine environment. The Miocene-age Costa Giardini diatreme near Sortino, in the region of the Iblei Mountains of southern Sicily, has an outer tuff ring formed by the accumulation of debris flows and surge deposits during hydromagmatic eruptions. Vesicular lava clasts, accretionary lapilli and bombs in the older ejecta indicate that initial eruptions were of gas-rich magma. Abundant xenoliths in the upper, late-deposited beds of the ring suggest rapid magma ascent, and deepening of the eruptive vent is shown by the change in slope of the country rock. The interior of the diatreme contains nonbedded breccia composed of both volcanic and country rock clasts of variable size and amount. The occurrence of bedded hyaloclastite breccia in an isolated outcrop in the middle-lower part of the diatreme suggests subaqueous effusion at a low rate following the end of explosive activity. Intrusions of nonvesicular magma, forming plugs and dikes, occur on the western side of the diatreme, and at the margins, close to the contact between breccia deposits and country rock; they indicate involvement of volatile-poor magma, possibly during late stages of activity. We propose that initial hydromagmatic explosive activity occurred in a shallow marine environment and the ejecta created a rampart that isolated for a short time the inner crater from the surrounding marine environment. This allowed explosive activity to draw down the water table in the vicinity of the vent and caused deepening of the explosive center. A subsequent decrease in the effusion rate and cessation of explosive eruptions allowed the crater to refill with water, at which time the hyaloclastite was deposited. Emplacement of dikes and plugs occurred nonexplosively while the breccia sediment was mostly still soft and unconsolidated, locally forming peperites. The sheltered, low-energy lagoon filled with marine limestones mixed with volcaniclastic material eroded from the surrounding ramparts. Ultimately, lagoonal sediments accumulated in the crater until subsidence or erosion of the tuff ring caused a return to normal shallow marine conditions.     

A simplified method for analyzing the fundamental frequency of monopile supported offshore wind turbine system design

Preliminary design of offshore wind turbines requires high precision simplified methods for the analysis of the system fundamental frequency. Based on the Rayleigh method and Lagrange's Equation, this study establishes a simple formula for the analysis of system fundamental frequency in the preliminary design of an offshore wind turbine with a monopile foundation. This method takes into consideration the variation of cross-section geometry of the wind turbine tower along its length, with the inertia moment and distributed mass both changing with diameter. Also the rotational flexibility of the monopile foundation is mainly considered. The rigid pile and elastic middle long pile are calculated separately. The method is validated against both FEM analysis cases and field measurements, showing good agreement. The method is then used in a parametric study, showing that the tower length Lt, tower base diameter d0, tower wall thickness δt, pile diameter db and pile length Lb are the major factors influencing the fundamental frequency of the offshore wind turbine system. In the design of offshore wind turbine systems, these five parameters should be adjusted comprehensively. The seabed soil condition also needs to be carefully considered for soft clay and loose sand.