Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC

Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers. However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that “the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented.” Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments.     

Effects of degree of saturation on shallow landslides triggered by rainfall

The empirical rainfall threshold concept and the physical-based model are two commonly used approaches for the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. To investigate in detail the rainfall-triggered shallow landslides, many physical-based models coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the rainfall infiltration modeling in variably saturated soil were developed. However, in those physical-based shallow landslide models, the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength were assumed constant rather than depending on the degree of saturation. In this study, the effects of the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength as function of degree of saturation on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are examined. Several designed scenarios and a real case scenario are used to conduct the examinations. The results show that not only the occurrence of shallow landslides but also the failure depth and the time to failure could be misassessed if the influences of degree of saturation on the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength are neglected.     

EM and GPR investigations of contaminant spread around the Hoc Mon waste site,Vietnam

This paper is presenting the results from near-surface geophysical surveys near the waste site of Hoc Mon in southern Vietnam where leachate contamination has been recognized at the surface. Using EM and GPR surveys, we were able to determine the lateral extent of a contaminated area of high electrical conductivity and have identified channels that concentrate the contaminant flow. The simple relationship between the electrical resistivity and the leachate concentration is suggested and estimated the in situ leachate concentration from the inversion of the EM data; values are as high as 40%. Thanks to a permeability barrier leachate flow is confined to the shallow subsurface, making it easier to apply possible site remediation projects.     

Global ionosphere map constructed by using total electron content from ground-based GNSS receiver and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC GPS occultation experiment

Effects of rapidly changing ionospheric weather are critical in high accuracy positioning, navigation, and communication applications. A system used to construct the global total electron content (TEC) distribution for monitoring the ionospheric weather in near-real time is needed in the modern society. Here we build the TEC map named Taiwan Ionosphere Group for Education and Research (TIGER) Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) from observations of ground-based GNSS receivers and space-based FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) GPS radio occultation observations using the spherical harmonic expansion and Kalman filter update formula. The TIGER GIM (TGIM) will be published in near-real time of 4-h delay with a spatial resolution of 2.5° in latitude and 5° in longitude and a high temporal resolution of every 5 min. The F3/C TEC results in an improvement on the GIM of about 15.5%, especially over the ocean areas. The TGIM highly correlates with the GIMs published by other international organizations. Therefore, the routinely published TGIM in near-real time is not only for communication, positioning, and navigation applications but also for monitoring and scientific study of ionospheric weathers, such as magnetic storms and seismo-ionospheric anomalies.     

Integration of linear and areal hierarchies for continuous multi-scale representation of road networks

Spatial data can be represented at different scales, and this leads to the issue of multi-scale spatial representation. Multi-scale spatial representation has been widely applied to online mapping products (e.g., Google Maps and Yahoo Maps). However, in most current products, multi-scale representation can only be achieved through a series of maps at fixed scales, resulting in a discontinuity (i.e., with jumps) in the transformation between scales and a mismatch between the available scales and users' desired scales. Therefore, it is very desirable to achieve smoothly continuous multi-scale spatial representations. This article describes an integrated approach to build a hierarchical structure of a road network for continuous multi-scale representation purposes, especially continuous selective omission of roads in a network. In this hierarchical structure, the linear and areal hierarchies are constructed, respectively, using two existing approaches for the linear and areal patterns in a road network. Continuous multi-scale representation of a road network can be achieved by searching in these hierarchies. This approach is validated by applying it to two study areas, and the results are evaluated by both quantitative analysis with two measures (i.e., similarity and average connectivity) and visual inspection. Experimental results show that this integrated approach performs better than existing approaches, especially in terms of preservation of connectivity and patterns of a road network. With this approach, efficient and continuous multi-scale selective omission of road networks becomes feasible.     

Evaluation of bank filtration as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway: results from monitoring at two full-scale sites

Two case studies were carried out in central Norway in order to assess the performance of bank filtration systems in cold-climate fluvial aquifers relying on recharge from humic-rich surface waters with moderate microbial contamination. Three municipal wells and two surface-water sources at operative bank filtration systems were monitored for naturally occurring bacteriophages, fecal indicators, natural organic matter (NOM) and physico-chemical water quality parameters during a 4-month period. Aquifer passage effectively reduced the microorganism and NOM concentrations at both study sites. Bacteriophages were detected in 13 of 16 (81%) surface-water samples and in 4 of 24 (17%) well-water samples, and underwent 3 ± 0.3 log₁₀ reduction after 50–80-m filtration and 20–30 days of subsurface passage. NOM reductions (color: 74–97%; dissolved organic carbon: 54–80%; very hydrophobic acids: 70%) were similar to those achieved by conventional water-treatment processes and no further treatment was needed. Both groundwater dilution and sediment filtration contributed to the hygienic water quality improvements, but sediment filtration appeared to be the most important process with regard to microbial and NOM reductions. A strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis showed that bank filtration technology has a high potential as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway.     

Seasonally frozen soil effects on the dynamic behavior of highway bridges

Frozen ground is significantly stiffer than unfrozen ground. For bridges supported on deep foundations, bridge stiffness is also measurably higher in winter months. Significant changes due to seasonal freezing in bridge pier boundary conditions require additional detailing in order to ensure a ductile performance of the bridge during a design earthquake event. This paper reports the latest results obtained from a project that systematically investigated the effects of seasonally frozen soil on the seismic behavior of highway bridges in cold regions. A bridge was chosen and was monitored to study its seismic performance and assess the impact of seasonally frozen soil on its dynamic properties. A Finite Element (FE) model was created for this bridge to analyze the impact of seasonal frost. It was found that when frost depth reaches 1.2 m, the first transverse modal frequency increases about 200% when compared with the no-frost case. The results show that seasonal frost has a significant impact on the overall dynamic behavior of bridges supported by pile foundations in cold regions, and that these effects should be accounted for in seismic design.     

Why relatively fewer people died? The case of Bangladesh’s Cyclone Sidr

Cyclone Sidr, a Category IV storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people. Despite a similar magnitude, Sidr claimed far fewer lives than Cyclone Gorky, also a Category IV storm, which struck Bangladesh in 1991 causing an estimated 140,000 fatalities. The relatively low number of deaths experienced with Sidr is widely considered the result of Bangladesh government’s efforts to provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and successful evacuation of coastal residents from the projected path of Cyclone Sidr. Using information collected from both primary and secondary sources, this study identified several other reasons for the unexpectedly lower mortality associated with Cyclone Sidr relative to Cyclone Gorky. Fewer casualties may be attributed to a number of physical characteristics of Cyclone Sidr, such as duration of the storm and storm surge, landfall time and site, varied coastal ecology, and coastal embankment. This article recommends improvements to the cyclone warning systems, establishment of more public cyclone shelters, and implementation of an education campaign in coastal areas to increase the utilization of public shelters for future cyclone events.