Climate and oceanic fisheries: recent observations and projections and future needs

Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries scientists and climate change experts are required. The International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3–5 October 2011, brought representatives from these disciplines together to consider the effects of climate variability and change on oceanic fisheries, the tools and strategies required for identifying potential impacts on oceanic fisheries, and the priority adaptations for sustaining future harvests, especially in the Pacific Ocean. Recommendations made by the workshop included (1) development and implementation of sustainable management measures for fisheries; (2) long-term commitment to monitoring necessary to assess stock status and to conduct integrated ecosystem assessments; (3) process oriented research to evaluate the potential of marine species for adaptation to a changing ocean environment; (4) provision of improved national meteorological and hydrological services to fisheries agencies, enterprises and communities; (5) continuing communication of potential impacts and adaptation strategies to stakeholders to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries and capitalise on opportunities; and (6) continued collaborative efforts between meteorological, oceanographic, biological and fisheries researchers and management agencies to better monitor and understand the impacts of short-term variability and longer-term change on oceanic fisheries.     

The Experiences of Weak and Non-Swimmers Caught in Rip Currents at Australian Beaches

Beach rip currents present a risk to weak and non-swimmers, whose limited open water swim competencies may render them incapable of swimming out of these common and strong offshore flows. Here, the aim has been to explore this group's vulnerability by identifying how the limits of their swimming competencies influence their abilities to successfully execute a rip current exit strategy. It provides empirical detail on their knowledge of rip currents, their behavioural responses when caught in the rip current, the advice they recalled and the educational messages they recommend to other swimmers. A secondary aim has been to begin a dialogue that recognises the capacity of the Australian beach cultures—as places of relaxation and natural beauty—to influence people's decisions to enter the water. This cultural contextualisation may help explain why some self-identified weak and non-swimmers still enter the water despite their limited competencies. Through a synthesis of survey and interview data, we argue that weak and non-swimmers need to take the threat of rip currents seriously. Pre-emptive safety advice should be sought, especially if people intend to swim regardless of their swimming ability.     

The psychology of beach users: importance of confirmation bias,action, and intention to improving rip current safety

Natural Hazards - The rip current hazard on beaches is a global public health issue. While physical controls on rip current formation and flow behavior are relatively well understood, there has...     

“A convenient truth”: air travel passengers’ willingness to pay to offset their CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions

Several economic reviews demonstrate the substantial costs related to climate change and consequently call for early action. These reviews, however, have been limited to measuring ‘objective’ risks and expected material damage related to climate change. The ‘subjective’ perceived risk of climate change and society’s willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid these risks are expected to provide an important additional motivation for direct action. We investigate whether and why air travel passengers—an increasingly important source of greenhouse gas emissions—are supportive of measures that increase the cost of their travel based on the polluter pays principle and compensate the damage caused by their flight. Compared to the results of the few previous studies that have elicited WTP estimates for climate policy more generally, our results appear to be at the lower end of the scale, while a comparison to estimates of the social cost of carbon shows that the average WTP estimate in this study is close to the estimated marginal damage cost. Although significant differences are found between travellers from Europe, North America, Asia and the rest of the world, we show that there exists a substantial demand for climate change mitigation action. The positive risk premium over and above the expected property damage cost assessments should be accounted for more explicitly in economic reviews as it will add to the burden of proof of direct action. Measurements of passenger WTP will help policy makers to design effective financial instruments aimed at discouraging climate-unfriendly travel activities as well as to generate funds for the measures directed at climate change mitigation and adaptation. Based on stated WTP by travellers to offset their greenhouse gas emissions, funds in the order of magnitude of €23 billion could be generated annually to finance climate change mitigation activities.     

Mekometer measurements in the Imperial Valley, California

A network of about 130 bench marks, mostly about 800 m apart at road intersections and forming a continuous chain of quadrilaterals crossing the Imperial Valley in the vicinity of El Centro, has been measured three times, in 1971, 1973 and 1975. The instrument used was a Mekometer, a superior short-range electronic-distance-measuring (EDM) instrument having a sensitivity of 0.1 mm and a potential accuracy of better than 1 ppm. In 1975 the network was extended, particularly where it crosses the Imperial fault, to about 200 bench marks defining about 500 lines.For various reasons, it has not been possible to achieve standard errors of much less than 3 ppm in the distance measurements. Even so, about one line in three shows significant change at the 95% level in one or more of the three intervals 1971–1973, 1973–1975 and 1971–1975. Adopting stringent consistency criteria, the number of places where significant changes occurred can be reduced to seven. One of these is almost certainly associated with the Heber geothermal anomaly, one with the Imperial fault, and the others with one or other of the faults identified on the ground further to the north. The largest and most consistent changes occur on the Imperial fault, and imply an aseismic slip on it averaging about 8 mm/yr.The data also lend themselves to regional strain analysis. The results are consistent with a linear strain rate of about 0.3 ppm/yr, which is comparable with the rate deduced from large-scale geodetic surveys of the area.     

Precise distance measurements in Iceland

Precise distance measurements made on four networks of permanent benchmarks situated on the active axes of Iceland during the four-year period 1968–1972 showed that a combination of left-lateral and extensional movement is occurring on the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwest Iceland at a rate of about 9 mm per year. Elsewhere in Iceland, the movements, if they exist, are too small to be detected. Measurements from a geothermal area in southwest Iceland showed also that large horizontal movements occur in the vicinity of producing geothermal wells.     

Tsunami as agents of geomorphic change in mid-ocean reef islands

Low-lying atoll islands appear highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and extreme natural events. Potentially disastrous effects of future sea-level rise have been inferred in many studies, and the actual impacts of tropical storms on island destruction and formation have been well documented. In contrast, the role of tsunami in the geomorphic development of atoll islands has not been investigated. The Sumatran earthquake of 26 December 2004 generated a tsunami that reached the Maldives 2500 km away, with waves up to 2.5 m high. Observations on the geomorphic changes resulting from the tsunami are detailed here, based on pre-and post-tsunami profile measurements of island, beach and reef topography, and GPS surveys of the planform shape of islands and beaches of 11 uninhabited islands in South Maalhosmadulu atoll, Maldives. Erosional and depositional impacts were observed on all islands and these have been quantified. In general the changes were of a minor nature with a maximum reduction in island area of 9% and average of 3.75%. Rather, the tsunami accentuated predictable seasonal oscillations in shoreline change, including localised erosion reflected in fresh scarps and seepage gullies. Depositional features in the form of sand sheets and sand lobes emplaced on the vegetated island surfaces provide clear evidence that the tsunami waves washed over parts of all the islands. Both erosional scarps and overwash deposits were concentrated at the tsunami-exposed eastern sides of the islands. Impacts on leeward shores were primarily accretionary, in the form of spit and cuspate foreland extension. Whereas the nature and magnitude of intra-and inter-island impacts was variable, an east to west decline in aggregate effects was noted. Detailed consideration of the morphodynamic interaction between the tsunami waves and island morphology, show that this cross-atoll gradient resulted not just from the reduction in tsunami energy as it passed through the atoll, but also from variations in elevation of the encircling island ridge, and the quantity and distribution of sediment in the antecedent beach. A conceptual model identifying the sequence of changes to individual islands supports the observational data and the pattern of geomorphic changes resulting from the tsunami. This model leads to consideration of the longer-term impacts of the tsunami on the future stability of islands. Four scenarios are presented, each of which has a different island-beach sediment budget, and different relaxation time to achieve dynamic equilibrium.