On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Instances of premonitory crustal velocity ratio changes in Iran

Anomalous compressional to shear wave velocity ratios seem to have occurred shortly before microearthquakes recorded during a survey of the region of Teheran, Iran. Furthermore, the time durations of these changes have the same dependence on the subsequent magnitude as similar changes found elsewhere in the world.     

Climate and current anthropogenic impacts on fisheries

Human impacts on marine fisheries go back many centuries or even thousands of years in some coastal areas. Full global exploitation of the most productive fish stocks probably occurred around 1990. Many stocks have been overexploited and the assessment and management required to rein this in and to combat other human pressures, such as pollution, has been slow to mature, but is showing positive trends. The need to protect marine ecosystems for their intrinsic value and for the services they provide has also been recognised and is being embodied in legislation and turned into operational tools. As with terrestrial systems, it will not be easy to find acceptable balances between food production and conservation objectives. Climate change imposes a new set of pressures on marine ecosystems; increasing temperature, reduced salinity in some enclosed seas and coastal areas, changing windfields and seasonality, acidification, deoxygenation and rising sea level will all affect the productivity and distribution of marine life. We can detect some of the consequences already but prediction is very difficult for a variety of reasons. In spite of these difficulties it is possible to map out robust guidance on the kind of research that will help us to adapt and on the development of practices and management that will insure against future change.     

Character and origin of variably deformed granitoids in central southern Sweden: implications from geochemistry and Nd isotopes

We present major and trace element data for eighteen 1.71–1.66 Ga granitoid samples, and Sm–Nd whole‐rock isotope data for eleven of these samples, in a transect across the border between the Transscandinavian Igneous Belt (TIB) and the Eastern Segment in central southern Sweden. The geochemistry of the granitoids varies from alkalic to alkali‐calcic and peraluminous in the east to predominantly calc‐alkaline and metaluminous in the west. Rocks in the west also have lower SiO₂ contents. Trace element signatures favour formation in an active continental margin setting. Nd isotope data are completely overlapping along the transect and initial ε_Nd values are mildly depleted in the range +0.3 to +2.6. The combined data suggest that the magmas were derived mainly from juvenile, pre‐existing crust, increasingly mafic and less alkaline towards the west. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of diffuse recharge and wastewater on groundwater contamination in Douala,Cameroon

High water demand for domestic use in Douala with over 3 million inhabitants is met mainly by shallow groundwater. Field measurements and water sampling in January 2015 were carried out to examine the major controls on the groundwater composition and spatial view of ions in the water, timing of recharge and link between the recharge process and quality of the water. Fifty-two water samples were analysed for major ions and stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. Low pH values (3.61–6.92) in the groundwater indicated an acidic aquifer; thus, prone to acidification. The dominant water type was Na–Cl. Nitrate, which exceeded the WHO guide value of 50 mg/l in 22% of the groundwater, poses a health problem. Mass ratios of Cl^?/Br^? in the water ranged from 54 to 3249 and scattered mostly along the mixing lines between dilute waters, septic-tank effluent and domestic sewage. A majority of the samples, especially the high NO₃ ^? shallow wells, clustered around the septic-tank effluent-end-member indicating high contamination by seepage from pit latrines; hence, vulnerable to pollution. Stable isotopes in the groundwater indicated its meteoric origin and rapid infiltration after rainfall. The δ¹⁸O values showed narrow ranges and overlaps in rivers, springs, open wells and boreholes. These observations depict hydraulic connectivity, good water mixing and a homogeneous aquifer system mainly receiving local direct uniform areal recharge from rainfall. The rapid and diffused recharge favours the leaching of effluent from the pit toilets into the aquifer; hence, the high NO₃ ^? and Cl^? in shallow wells. Silicate weathering, ion exchange and leaching of waste from pit toilets are the dominant controls on the groundwater chemistry. Drilling of deep boreholes is highly recommended for good-quality water supply. However, due the hydraulic connection to the shallow aquifer, geochemical modelling of future effects of such an exploitation of the deeper aquifer should support groundwater management and be ahead of the field actions.