Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

2020年2月3日四川青白江5.1级地震总结

针对2020年2月3日四川青白江5.1级地震发生前的地震活动和地球物理观测异常、构造背景、震源物理参数,以及地震序列特征等进行系统总结。结果表明,青白江5.1级地震发生前存在小震调制比高值、地磁低点位移、重力固体潮高噪声等中短期异常;地震序列活动特征显示,此次地震为一次孤立型地震序列,序列参数计算结果与当前余震活动水平基本相符。另外,青白江地震发生在龙泉山断裂带上,震源机制计算结果显示为一次逆冲型破裂事件,与龙泉山断裂构造性质一致。同时,此次地震发生在四川盆地的少震弱震区,对于川滇及川滇藏交界地区后续7级以上地震的发生具有一定预测意义。     

近50a洱海水环境演变特征及其主要驱动因素

基于1971 2020年近50年洱海湖区主要水质指标的监测数据,采用M-K检验和GAMs模型定量解析了洱海水质的年际变化趋势,采用多元回归法综合分析了洱海水环境演变的驱动因素。结果表明,近50年来,在流域发展与湖泊保护双轮驱动的作用下,洱海水质年际波动明显,主要水质指标浓度也呈现出多个显著变化的趋势过程。1980s初至1985年间水质指标浓度显著上升,主要与流域南部城镇化发展有关;1986 1980s末显著下降,与南部截污干渠(管)建设密切相关;1990s末至2003年间显著上升,主要与南部城镇工业发展、农业种植结构调整等重要发展策略有关;20042008年间显著下降,主要与中心城区截污治污、环洱海湖滨带修复等重要工程实施有关。在此期间洱海发生过两次较为严重的规模化藻华事件,1996年在水质优良的情况下洱海首次发生蓝藻水华,这与长期低水位运行、网箱养鱼和银鱼引种等导致湖泊生态系统严重受损密切相关;2003年在水质污染加重、生态系统尚未恢复情况下洱海再次发生蓝藻水华。2次藻华事件也改变了流域发展政策,对洱海的科学认识和保护治理力度不断加大,特别是2016年以来高强度的湖泊保护工作,促使洱...     

2015年四川乐山金口河M5.0地震孕震构造条件分析

2015年1月14日乐山金口河M5.0地震发生在历史地震强度较低的川南山区与四川盆地交界一带。基于四川区域地震台网的震相报告与波形资料,采用双差定位法对地震序列进行重新定位,同时,采用CAP波形反演方法及HASH方法反演了主震及序列中8次M_L≥2.0地震的震源机制解。另外,利用Coulomb3计算了主震发生后库仑应力改变量,得到的结果如下：①重新定位结果显示,金口河M5.0地震位于（103.18°E,29.32°N）,震源深度16.6km,略深于波形反演结果（12km）。序列分布在NNW向天全-荥经断裂和NE向西河-美姑断裂的交汇部位,余震序列在空间上呈NE向展布。②M5.0主震的机制解为节面Ⅰ：走向350°/倾角46°/滑动角107°,节面Ⅱ：走向146°/倾角47°/滑动角73°,表现为走向NW（NNW）、中等倾角的逆冲型运动方式。序列中其余8次M_L≥2.0余震大多以走向NE的逆冲型地震为主,个别为走滑或正断层类型。主震和大部分余震的节面方向不一致,主震节面方向与余震长轴方向也不一致。③主震后库仑应力改变量显示,余震主要发生在主震引起的库仑破裂应力增加的区域。综合分析推测,NNW向天全-荥经断裂为本次地震主震的发震构造,倾向NE的机制解节面Ⅰ指出了该断裂的几何产状;M5.0主震发生后,立即触发了其旁侧的NE向西河-美姑断裂,并激发了多次余震。     

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

Partition-coordinated control of soil and water loss for chestnut forests in the Yanshan Mountain Region,China

Soil erosion from chestnut forests is one of the most important factors causing land degradation in the Yanshan Mountain Region. A 2-year field study was done to compare the effects on erosion of a control plot(CP), a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 6 m(MP 1),and a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 8 m(MP 2). The results showed that the slope runoff of chestnut forests was influenced by rainfall characteristic factors.No single rainfall characteristic factor showed dominance for hill slope runoff. The runoff reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures(MP 1 and MP 2) was substantial for chestnut forests under high rainfall intensity conditions. However, the runoff reduction efficiency was higher under the conditions of heavy rainfall and low average rainfall intensity than for storms with higher intensity and lower total rainfall. The reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures on the runoff and sediment yield of chestnut forest slopes was MP 2 > MP 1 > CP. The runoff reduction rate and erosion reduction rate of MP 2 reached 61.70% and 97.41%, respectively, and that for MP 1 was 54.15% and 85.31%, respectively. Therefore, after a comprehensive comparison, MP 2 was determined to be more effective for soil erosion control for a sloping chestnut forest.     

基于人工地震波作用下大跨度悬索桥多点激励地震响应分析

为研究大跨度悬索桥在多点激励作用下的地震响应规律,在已有的功率谱模型基础上提出了改进的功率谱模型,并将其应用到人工地震波合成过程中。以某水库上主跨720 m双塔单跨悬索桥为研究对象,用Midas civil建立全桥有限元模型,采用大质量法进行不同波速多点激励地震响应分析。结果表明:大跨度悬索桥在多点激励作用下的主塔内力响应、主塔位移响应及主梁位移响应均受行波效应、衰减效应、不相干效应及衰减后地震波叠加效应影响,且最终的响应值由衰减后地震波的叠加效应与衰减效应的共同作用决定;500 m/s多点激励下衰减后的地震波叠加加强效应与衰减效应共同作用后,对主塔轴力响应、主塔塔底顺桥向剪力响应、左塔上横梁处剪力和弯矩响应的加强效果最大;各波速多点激励下,主塔顶顺桥向位移响应相对变化率均大于零且几乎保持不变,主梁两端顺桥向位移响应相对变化率在1 000 m/s波速取得最大值,主梁竖向位移响应在500 m/s取得最大值并随波速的增加逐渐接近一致激励情况。     

特高压互连电气设备减震性能振动台试验

为研究铅金属减震器对特高压互连电气设备的减震效果,进行由硬管母线连接的特高压避雷器设备和电容式电压互感器设备组成的互连耦合体系的地震模拟振动台试验。通过白噪声扫频、抗震及减震试验,测定互连耦合体系抗震结构及减震结构的自振频率以及关键部位的应变、加速度响应。试验结果表明:抗震结构中避雷器设备的最大应变响应大于互感器设备,互连耦合体系中的避雷器设备属于易损设备;安装减震器后互连设备频率降低幅度较小,减震器基本不会影响电气设备的正常运行;安装减震器后互连耦合体系中的避雷器设备和互感器设备在较大峰值加速度地震波作用下,设备顶端加速度响应和最大应变响应均有较大幅度的降低,避雷器设备和互感器设备的最大应变响应的减震效率分别为75%和50%,减震效果显著,减震器的应用大幅提升了互连耦合体系的抗震能力。     

2018年12月16日兴文5.7级地震序列定位

Gong Yue;Zhao Min;LongFeng;Fu Ying(Sichuan Earthquake Agency,Sichuan Chengdu 610041,China)     

Spatiotemporal variations of dissolved inorganic carbon and controlling factors in a small karstic catchment,Southwestern China

Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is the most important carbon component in karst aquatic system where fluid is highly transmissive, but has rarely been examined in the subtropical karst critical zone (K-CZ). In this study, concentrations of dissolved solutes and isotopic compositions of DIC (δ¹³C_DIC) at 11 sites of a 73.4 km² karstic catchment in Southwestern China were analysed monthly in order to uncover the spatiotemporal variations of both DIC and its dominant sources, and to identify relevant controlling factors. Both DIC concentrations and δ¹³C_DIC were highly variable, ranging from 2.52 to 5.85 mmol l⁻¹ and from −15.7 to −4.5‰, respectively. DIC in underground water (UGW) was higher in concentration and more depleted in ¹³C compared to surface water (SFS). DIC concentrations showed an inconsistent seasonal trend with other solutes, with higher values in the wet season at some sites. δ¹³C_DIC values were lower in the wet season than in the dry season. The results of mixing model IsoSource revealed spatiotemporal patterns of DIC sources. During the dry season, carbonate weathering was the primary contributor to DIC in UGW (excluding in the middle reaches). However, during the wet season, soil CO₂ was the dominant source of DIC in both UGW and SFS, and it was higher than in the dry season. Overall, there are significant spatiotemporal disparities and highly transmissive characteristics of both DIC and its sources in the K-CZ, which are controlled by multiple factors. This study also highlights that rainfall may play a crucial role in accelerating carbon dynamics in the K-CZ. High-frequency sampling campaigns in high-flow periods and deep analyses are needed in future work to elucidate the related processes and mechanisms. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.