浅谈如何撰写观众喜爱的电视天气预报节目演播稿

从撰写市级演播稿的工作实践,找出几点撰写观众喜爱的电视天气预报节目演播稿的经验体会:撰稿者要不断地学习,全面掌握和累积气象及其他学科等多方面的知识,深入了解观众的需求,用"心"去策划,运用娴熟的文学技巧,从通俗易懂的角度向观众传递信息,才能写出好的演播稿件。     

1979~2013年西北太平洋地区海平面气压场季节转换时间的变化分析

采用1979~2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,借助线性趋势、距平、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验及Morlet小波等方法分析了西北太平洋地区海平面气压场季节转换时间的长期趋势和多尺度周期变化特征。结果表明:海平面气压场一年中存在两次季节转变,20°N~50°N海平面气压场冬夏季节转变的时间在第20候左右,而夏冬季节转变发生在第51候。并且海平面气压场的季节转换时间存在纬度差异与经度差异。通过趋势分析,发现海平面气压场由冬季型转变到夏季型的时间存在显著的趋势变化,并且在近35年内是趋于提前,其气候倾向率为-0.33候/10 a;夏季型转换为冬季型的时间趋于延后,气候倾向率为0.25候/10 a。季节转换时间的Mann-Kendall突变检测结果表明,海平面气压场由冬向夏的转换时间在1997~1998年间发生了突变;夏季型转换为冬季型的时间尚未发现显著突变。最后通过对季节转换时间的小波分析与小波功率谱的显著性检验得出,冬夏季节转换的时间具有显著的15 a周期变化;夏冬季节转换时间8 a周期振荡最为剧烈。     

中国北极村气候变暖特征

利用我国最北部的北极村气象站1963～2005年气温资料,通过计算气候倾向率和气候趋势系数,对该地区气候变化特点进行了分析。结果表明,43年来北极村气温有明显并稳定的上升趋势,年平均气温以每10年0．46℃幅度升高。各季及逐月平均气温都存在不同程度的变暖趋势,但是冬季升温最为剧烈,达每10年0．69℃,其中2月升温幅度为每10年1．02℃,为全年最大。秋季升温最弱,仅为每10年0．21℃。年平均最低气温（每10年0．59℃）和年极端最低气温（每10年0．74℃）比年平均最高气温（每10年0．37℃）和年极端最高气温（每10年0．27℃）升温幅度明显偏大。最低气温比最高气温对平均气温的年代际升温趋势贡献更为明显。     

Relationships between typhoon types and debris flow disasters in Taiwan

Frequent debris flow disasters caused by heavy precipitation during the annual typhoon season are some of the most serious disasters in Taiwan. This study is on the debris flow disasters associated with the typhoons that hit Taiwan between 1986 and 2004. Typhoon data and records of debris flow disasters available for Nantou and Hualien counties in Taiwan were analyzed. The paths and rainfall characteristics of typhoons were found to have a great effect on the debris flows at these locations. Accordingly, the typhoons were grouped into four major types based on their paths and related disasters. The relationships between rainfall intensity and accumulation and debris flow are discussed for the four major typhoon types. The information may form the basis for providing useful indicators for disaster management.     

Chemical and nanometer-scale structure of kerogen and its change during thermal maturation investigated by advanced solid-state C NMR spectroscopy

We have used advanced and quantitative solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) techniques to investigate structural changes in a series of type II kerogen samples from the New Albany Shale across a range of maturity (vitrinite reflectance R₀ from 0.29% to 1.27%). Specific functional groups such as CH₃, CH₂, alkyl CH, aromatic CH, aromatic C-O, and other nonprotonated aromatics, as well as “oil prone” and “gas prone” carbons, have been quantified by ¹³C NMR; atomic H/C and O/C ratios calculated from the NMR data agree with elemental analysis. Relationships between NMR structural parameters and vitrinite reflectance, a proxy for thermal maturity, were evaluated. The aromatic cluster size is probed in terms of the fraction of aromatic carbons that are protonated (∼30%) and the average distance of aromatic C from the nearest protons in long-range H-C dephasing, both of which do not increase much with maturation, in spite of a great increase in aromaticity. The aromatic clusters in the most mature sample consist of ∼30 carbons, and of ∼20 carbons in the least mature samples. Proof of many links between alkyl chains and aromatic rings is provided by short-range and long-range ¹H-¹³C correlation NMR. The alkyl segments provide most H in the samples; even at a carbon aromaticity of 83%, the fraction of aromatic H is only 38%. While aromaticity increases with thermal maturity, most other NMR structural parameters, including the aromatic C-O fractions, decrease. Aromaticity is confirmed as an excellent NMR structural parameter for assessing thermal maturity. In this series of samples, thermal maturation mostly increases aromaticity by reducing the length of the alkyl chains attached to the aromatic cores, not by pronounced growth of the size of the fused aromatic ring clusters.     

南海岩石圈厚度变化特征及其构造意义

地震层析资料表明,南海地区,自红河口向南经南海、苏录海到苏拉威西海,岩石圈速度低,底部横波速度仅4.4km/s,岩石圈厚度在60～80km,为薄岩石圈地区;而软流层的速度也较低,在4.2～4.4km/s,但厚度较大,大于200km。从红河—莺歌海断裂带经南海到苏录海,存在一条北西向宽约200km的上地幔北西向低速带,速度在4.05～4.25km/s(面波速度)。它反映了新生代南海地区上地幔的动力学过程。南海岩石圈厚度变化存在明显差异,南海陆缘,岩石圈厚度在70～80km,而在南海洋盆之下,岩石圈厚度超过100km,岩石圈底部存在高速岩石层,并且洋盆下的岩石圈之厚度比大陆边缘厚,在海盆岩石圈下部的60～80km深度上存在一高速层,纵波速度为8.2～8.3km/s。特别是中央海盆及西北海盆与西南海盆,其下部岩石圈中均存在一高速岩石层,这是非常具有构造意义的。由此笔者提出大陆岩石圈裂离、上地幔因减压而部分熔融所产生的基性岩浆形成南海新生代洋壳的猜想。     

升温速率对粘土矿物热效应特征的影响——以四川三台钙基膨润土为例

以四川三台钙基膨润土为例,采用热重(TG/DTG)、差示扫描量热(DSC/DDSC)同步热分析技术系统研究升温速率对粘土矿物加热过程中热效应特征的影响。根据实验结果,可将三台钙基膨润土的热分解过程可分为表面吸附水(114.1℃左右)和层间水(约181.9℃)失去,羟基的脱出(约651℃),蒙脱石晶体结构破坏(876.8℃)等3个阶段。证明升温速率对TG,DTG,DSC,DDSC等曲线热效应特征均有显著影响:(1)热失重(TG)是一种相对热失重,其结果与升温速率成反比,升温速率越慢,热失重越逼近绝对值,升温速率越快,热失重率越小。(2)加热温度≤400℃时,DTG,DSC曲线的分辨率与升温速率成反比,低升温速率有利于粘土矿物脱水反应类型的辨别;在400℃~900℃时,DTG,DSC的分辨率与升温速率成正比,提高升温速率有利于粘土矿物脱羟基反应的分辩。(3)加热温度≤400℃时,与TG,DTG,DSC等曲线相比,DDSC曲线中对粘土矿物脱水反应的分辨率最高;在400℃~1 100℃时,升温速率对粘土矿物脱羟、相变反应中DDSC曲线热效应特征的影响较为复杂。