WRF微物理方案对四川一次强降水模拟的影响

云物理过程是中尺度数值模式中最重要的非绝热加热物理过程之一,成云降雨过程发生以后通过感热、潜热和动量输送等反馈作用影响大尺度环流,并在决定大气温度、湿度场的垂直结构中起着关键作用,也是人们最为关心的降水预报的关键所在.因此在中尺度数值天气预报模式当中,更加准确的描述云物理过程将能够很大程度上提高模式预报降水能力.本文利用WRF模式,对2010年7月14 ～ 18日四川一次强降水过程进行了3组数值模拟实验,每组实验采用了不同的微物理参数化方案.方案的选取上主要采用了WRF模式3.0版本后加入的几种新方案,包括(1)WDM6方案(2)New Thompson方案(3)SBU-YLIN方案,在其他参数设置均相同的情况下,首先详细分析了在整个降水过程的各个阶段,3种方案下模式模拟结果与实况的差异,以及3种方案结果之间的差异.认为在降水初期,WDM6方案的模拟结果对比实况来看盆地东部降水中心偏南,而New Thompson方案和SBU-YLin方案模拟的雅安地区降水中心强度和范围都过大,但对于盆地东部的降水中心模拟较好,New Thompson方案对广元地区的降水模拟较实况偏弱.总体看来,New Thompson方案和SBU-YLin效果相当,WDM6略差.在大范围降水产生的时期,3种方案模拟的效果与实况都非常接近,只是各方案对乐山宜宾一线雨带的模拟都有不同程度的加强,使得这一线成了整个区域的最强的中心,其中SBU-YLin方案加强最大,New Thompson方案次之,而实际过程中这一时期最强中心还是在川东北一带.WDM6方案模拟降水强度与实况最为接近,但中心偏东.其中7月16日18时～17日06时是各方案模拟效果最好的一个时段.3种方案给出的的模拟结果相差并不大,较难得出哪种方案的结果最好的结论,但可以初步看出,对于本次降水量级的模拟来讲,WDM6方案模拟降水的量级较好,较少出现模拟过强的现象,而SBU-YLin方案通常模拟的降水中心强度都要大过实际;从降水落区上来看,SBU-YLin方案的表现较好,WDM6方案则有一定偏差.在这两方面New Thompson方案都介于以上两方案之间.最后初步分析了各方案模拟所得的水相参量,主要包括水汽、云水、云冰、雨、雪和霰粒子的混合比,认为造成各方案之间降水差异的原因,主要是各方案处理云水粒子的差别造成.     

雷电灾害易损性评估及易损度区划——以宁波为例

根据宁波市ADTD闪电定位系统的2010—2012年的地闪监测数据和雷电灾害资料以及2012年宁波市人口及GDP数据,选取年平均地闪密度、致灾强度地闪密度、经济损失指标、人员伤亡指标、人员易损指标、经济易损指标等6项指标,采用5级对称等分间隔划分法,确定划分雷灾易损性指标和雷灾综合易损度等级标准,根据雷灾综合易损度得出评估结果:海曙区、江东区为雷灾极高易损区;镇海区为雷灾高易损区;江北区、宁海县、象山县、北仑区、奉化市为雷灾中易损区;鄞州区、余姚市为雷灾低易损区;慈溪市为雷灾极低易损区。     

粤东河源盆地的深部构造、沉积序列与盆地演化

粤东河源盆地是东南沿海规模较大的晚中生代—新生代陆相盆地之一,发育有较为完整的晚白垩世—新近纪地层。研究该盆地的深部构造、控盆断裂、沉积序列和盆地的形成发展,对于认识东南沿海晚中生代—新近纪的大地构造演化有重要意义。通过对野外地质调查、地球物理反射剖面和约两千米的地质科学钻探等数据资料的综合研究,查明了河源盆地为中生代—新生代沉积断陷盆地,地层结构清晰,沉积基底为早古生代地层,并建立了该盆地晚白垩世—新近纪的三阶段沉积序列;该盆地发育渐新世的火山岩,揭示了控盆边界断裂及内部构造发育特征,暗示了原型盆地的破坏发生于晚新生代:即盆地南北两侧紫金—博罗逆冲断层和河源断裂带在晚古近纪—新近纪强烈地改造了原型盆地;基于以上认识,初步恢复了河源盆地的形成演化历史,构建了河源盆地沉积序列-构造演化模式。     

Low-temperature alteration of oceanic island basalts and their contribution to transition metal circulation of the ocean

The major elements, rare earth elements （REE） and trace elements of four basalt samples from central and western Pacific ferro- manganese crust provinces have been analyzed using chemical methods and ICP - MS, respectively. The results indicate that the samples have been extensively altered and that the contents of their major elements have changed significantly. However, the similarity of REE partition patterns and trace element contents of basalt samples to those of fresh oceanic island basalts （OIB） indicate that the basalt samples originated as OIB. Because of low-temperature alteration, the contents of A1203 , Fe203 , MnO, K20 and P205 increased, while MgO and FeO decreased. Active components, such as magnesium and iron, were leached from OIB resulting in the relative enrichment of SiO2. The leaching of active components can cause the relative enrichment of REE, while the precipitation of LREE-rich ferromanganese oxides in vesicles and fissures not only causes an increase of REE contents, but also induces ＂fractionation＂ of LREE and HREE. Based on the enrichment mechanism of REE contents, the theoretical quantities of precipitated ferromanganese oxides and the depleted quantities of active components are calculated ： the depleted quantities of active components for the unit mass of fresh basalts vary in the range of 0.15 ～ 0. 657, and the precipitated quantities of ferromanganese oxides for the unit mass of fresh basahs vary in the range of 0. 006 ～ 0. 042. Of the major elements, the two most depleted are iron, and magnesium, with 18.28% ～ 70.95% of iron and 44.50% ～ 93.94% of magnesium in the fresh basalts was leached out. Theoretical calculation and geochemistry results both indicate that low-temperature alteration of basalts can supply abundant amount of metals to seawater, and may play an important role in ocean metal circulation.     

基于高导热材料填充漏失构造的深井换热器性能分析

地热供暖可有效缓解北方雾霾天气。干热岩虽然储量丰富,但增强型地热技术由于开发费用较高,裂隙控制以及避免诱发地震的技术尚不成熟,现阶段还不能商业化应用。水热型地热开发技术虽较成熟,但受资源条件的限制,开发规模较小。对于大多地区,受地质构造和资源禀赋的控制,单井产水量较低或者回灌难,开发经济效益较差。深井换热器(DBHE)技术是开采地热水低产区或回灌难地区热能的有效方式,但受制于岩石导热系数低,单井输出功率小,投资回收期长。为提高DBHE的输出功率,本文提出了增强型深井换热器(EDBHE),通过主动将高导热性能的复合填充剂流进漏失构造的方式提高岩石的导热性能,通过调节回压、密度和黏度来控制漏失量。研究结果表明,单井EDBHE十个采暖季的平均取热功率为1002.34 kW,是DBHE(424.45 kW)的2.36倍。而双井EDBHE十个采暖季的平均取热功率更是达到了27501.61 kW,且热输出稳定,每年的衰减率0.95%。EDBHE技术有效利用了出水量低或回灌难的水热型热储,大幅提高了其出力,扩大了地热供暖的应用范围。     

CAS FGOALS-g3 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)

This paper describes the datasets from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP) simulation experiments run with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,GridPoint version 3(CAS FGOALS-g3). FGOALS-g3 is driven by eight shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs) with different sets of future emission, concentration, and land-use scenarios. All Tier 1 and 2 experiments were carried out and were initialized using historical runs. A branch run method ...     

The effect of density-driven flow on the transport of high-concentration solutes in the hyporheic zone

In this study, both laboratory experiments and numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the effect of density-driven flow on the transport of high-concentration pollutants in the hyporheic zone. The results show that the density gradient can change the flow of pore water and the strong density-driven flow can lead to an unstable flow, which increases the effect of preferential flow and thus causes the appearance of solute fingers in the hyporheic zone. Notably, these solute fingers become more obvious with the increase of depth. The appearance of solute fingers depends on the relative strength of the pumping exchange and density gradient, which are represented by the dimensionless number M* and N* respectively. Finger flows appear near the interface when M^* is less than 0.5 N^*. This study may contribute to better understanding the transport and destination of solutes and thus may provide some insights into the assessment on pollution incidents.     

Low‐temperature thermochronology of francolite: Insights into timing of Dead Sea Transform motion

Cambrian siliciclastic sequences along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) margin in southern Israel and southern Jordan host both detrital fluorapatite [D‐apatite] and U‐rich authigenic carbonate‐fluorapatite (francolite) [A‐apatite]. D‐apatite and underlying Neoproterozoic basement apatite yield fission‐track (FT) data reflecting Palaeozoic–Mesozoic sedimentary cycles and epeirogenic events, and dispersed (U–Th–Sm)/He (AHe) ages. A‐apatite, which may partially or completely replace D‐apatite, yields an early Miocene FT age suggesting formation by fracturing, hydrothermal fluid ascent and intra‐strata recrystallisation, linked to early DST motion. The DST, separating the African and Arabian plates, records ~105 km of sinistral strike‐slip displacement, but became more transtensional post‐5 Ma. Helium diffusion measurements on A‐apatite are consistent with thermally activated volume diffusion, indicating Tc ~52 to 56 ± 10°C (cooling rate 10°C/Ma). A‐apatite AHe data record Pliocene cooling (~35 to 40°C) during the transtensional phase of movement. This suggests that timing of important milestones in DST motion can be discerned using A‐apatite low‐temperature thermochronology data alone.     

基于数据挖掘CART算法的区域夏季降水日数分类与预测模型研究

夏季降水日数的准确预测,对于保障农业、运输业、电力等行业的有序进行具有重要现实意义.利用连云港市气象局提供的1951—2012年夏季降水数据对连云港地区的降水日数特征进行分析,难以直观地发现夏季降水日数随时间分布的规律.为进一步探索降水日数的发生规律,结合国家气候中心网站提供的多种气候因子数据,基于CART决策树算法构建了连云港地区夏季降水日数是否偏多与是否偏少的分类与预测模型.该模型可以发现在多种气候因子不同条件下,夏季降水日数是否偏多（偏少）的规律,模型的分类与预测都具有良好的效果.利用52 a的数据样本训练模型,模型的训练准确率为90.38%（86.54%）,再用剩余10 a数据样本检验模型,测试准确率为80%（80%）,并且得到规则集,方便气象业务人员使用以及决策服务人员参考.同时,为降水日数的预测提供了数据挖掘的新思路.     

京津冀生产性服务业关联特征分析

推动京津冀产业协同发展,要立足于产业关联,推进产业对接协作,在更高层次上实现区域优势互补、联动发展。本文基于北京市、天津市、河北省2007年与2012年的投入产出表,运用MRIO模型,编制了京津冀区域间129部门投入产出表,进而从京津冀地区影响力系数、感应度系数方面分析了京津冀地区生产性服务业产业关联特征。结果表明：①北京市信息服务业、科技服务业,天津市道路运输业、水上运输业对区域经济推动作用较强,河北省生产性服务业对区域经济主要起拉动作用。②北京市科技服务业与天津市信息服务业主要服务于本市其他各行业,对外地经济的辐射作用较低。③京津两市生产性服务业产业趋同现象严重,不利于区域经济的发展。