Modeling Nonprofit Resilience in Long-Term Recovery in Christchurch,New Zealand

Following the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, many nonprofit organizations changed or expanded services to address emergent or compounded risks. This research is based on interviews with thirty local community nonprofit managers and discussions with five staff focus groups conducted in 2014. Preexisting nonprofits with flexible organizational structures and emergent nonprofits succeeded in providing services during the emergency response and early recovery phases; nonprofits contracted with the government were better suited for long-term recovery. Shared resources among nonprofit agency connections contributed to successful transitions from response to recovery. Similar organizational resilience factors might occur in other major cities following disasters.     

Carbonate cement fabrics displayed: A traverse across the margin of the Bahamas Platform near Lee Stocking Island in the Exuma Cays

Consolidated to friable carbonate rocks found in the Lee Stocking Island area in the Exuma Cays include: (1) reef rock, (2) channel stromatolites, (3) shallow-water hardgrounds, (4) beachrock rimming the islands and (5) Pleistocene bedrock.

The most common cement fabrics observed are: aragonitic fibers, which include acicular fan-druse and square-tipped coarse fibers cementing beachrock and stromatolites; and an isopachous needle-fiber rim cementing hardgrounds and stromatolites.

Less common are high-Mg calcite bladed textures of the reef rock and stromatolites. Two types of blades are present: the more common stubby variety of either high-Mg or low-Mg calcite, and an elongated variety of high-Mg calcite which was found in only three beachrock samples.

Aragonitic micrite envelopes usually surround grains in beachrock, hardgrounds and stromatolites, but only in association with fibrous cement. An aragonitic crust cements the surfaces of lime mud beds of the tidal channel, while a high-Mg calcite cryptocrystalline cement occurs in all the rock types. Calcified algal filaments of high-Mg calcite, from the abundant green and blue-green algae in the area, are a primary cement in stromatolites and a secondary cement in hardgrounds and beachrock. A low-Mg calcite equant spar cements the Pleistocene samples and is associated with meteoric diagenesis and cementation of the Pleistocene surface.

Cement precipitation coincides with the path of the cool oceanic water from Exuma Sound as it warms and loses CO₂ and moves up onto the bank near Lee Stocking with the incoming tide. Cryptocrystalline cement is the first and commonest cement forming to the seaward while platformward, fibrous cements become predominant. As suggested by their crystal size and location on the shelf margin, we think that the reef rock cryptocrystalline material are the fastest forming of the cements, where the incoming oceanic water is more saturated with respect to calcium carbonate and undergoes the most significant warming. The rate of the warming and degassing process is thought to increase in the tidal channel though the cementation rate is thought to fall slightly in response to a reduced availability of calcium carbonate. On the platform interior further warming and degassing are believed to cause cement precipitation and the development of hardgrounds, but these may form at a slower rate than that of the margin, though this rate is still quite high. Cementation gradients occur from the tidal channel to the intertidal zones of: (1) west Norman's Pond Cay, where cement fabric suggests a reduced calcium carbonate availability, and (2) west Lee Stocking Island, where a change in mineralogy suggests a change in water chemistry.

Thus, a sequence of cement fabrics and mineralogies can be traced. Micritic textures occur in a more seaward position; fine, fibrous aragonite fibers in a more lagoonal and levee position; and coarser aragonite fibers and Mg-calcite cements in the intertidal and supratidal position. This sequence is thought to track the evolution of the water mass.     

Statistical testing of a new testate amoeba‐based transfer function for water‐table depth reconstruction on ombrotrophic peatlands in north‐eastern Canada and Maine,United States

Proxy reconstructions of climatic parameters developed using transfer functions are central to the testing of many palaeoclimatic hypotheses on Holocene timescales. However, recent work shows that the mathematical models underpinning many existing transfer functions are susceptible to spatial autocorrelation, clustered training set design and the uneven sampling of environmental gradients. This may result in over‐optimistic performance statistics or, in extreme cases, a lack of predictive power. A new testate amoeba‐based transfer function is presented that fully incorporates the new recommended statistical tests to address these issues. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation, the most commonly applied method in recent studies to assess model performance, produced over‐optimistic performance statistics for all models tested. However, the preferred model, developed using weighted averaging with tolerance downweighting, retained a predictive capacity equivalent to other published models even when less optimistic performance statistics were chosen. Application of the new statistical tests in the development of transfer functions provides a more thorough assessment of performance and greater confidence in reconstructions based on them. Only when the wider research community have sufficient confidence in transfer function‐based proxy reconstructions will they be commonly used in data comparison and palaeoclimate modelling studies of broader scientific relevance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social influence approaches to encourage resource conservation: A meta-analysis

Would somebody be more willing to start recycling if they knew that their friends were all recycling? Social influence refers to the ways in which our behaviour is affected by what other people do, or by what other people think. Various insights from theories of social influence have been applied as part of interventions to encourage resource conservation, such as the use of social norms, social learning, and social comparison processes. The question arises: Is social influence as effective as is sometimes assumed? This review compares the effectiveness of different social influence approaches to encourage resource conservation via a meta-analysis and outlines what remains to be learned about the mechanisms linking social influence to behaviour change. A random-effects meta-analysis with a sample of 29 studies revealed that social influence approaches were effective when compared to a control group. They were also more effective when compared to another intervention, although in this case the effect size was small. The effectiveness was different for different social influence approaches and for different target groups. These findings raise a number of important questions, which form the basis of a research agenda for better understanding the processes through which social influence approaches encourage resource conservation.     

Non‐linear response of current‐meter compasses: Research note

Abstract

A non‐linear response in current‐meter compasses is examined in terms of its effect on the measured residual current. It is shown that, even for a compass response within typical manufacturers’ specifications, the induced errors are important for regions where the residual speed is less than about 10% of the peak tidal current. In an M₂ current, the non‐linearity also induces an M₄ signal, but this is not sufficiently large to be easily detected by tidal analyses.     

“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

This article analyses lay understandings of climate change elicited through a longitudinal population-based survey of climate change, place and community among 1162 residents in the Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia. We explore how older residents in contrasting rural and coastal geographic areas perceive climate change information in terms of culturally relevant meanings and values, lived experiences and emotional responses to seasonal cycles, temperature fluctuations and altered landscapes. Thematic analysis of comments given by 467 interviewees to an open-ended question identified a significant subset for whom the concepts of “nature” and “science” express competing views about changing climatic conditions. For them, the idea of “natural cycles” is a significant cultural construct that links nature and humans through time in a way that structures stable and resilient understandings of environmental change, drawing on established cosmological frameworks for contemplating the future in relation to the past. In contrast to other studies that postulate scepticism and denial as individuals’ fear management strategies in the face of climate change threat, we found that the natural cycles view is founded on a reassuring deeper conviction about how nature works, and is linked to other pro-environmental values not commonly found in sceptical groups. It is a paradox of natural cycles thinking that it rejects the anthropocentrism that is at the heart of science-based environmentalism. By contrast, it places humans as deeply integrated with nature, rather than operating outside it and attempting with uncertain science to control something that is ultimately uncontrollable.     

Testing inferences from palaeocurrents: application of zircon double‐dating to Miocene sediments from the Hengchun Peninsula,Taiwan

Detrital zircon provenance studies that combine low‐temperature fission‐track and high‐temperature U–Pb single‐grain age dating are powerful in constraining sediment provenance by documenting the tectonothermal evolution of the sediment source(s). We apply these techniques to Miocene (12–6 Ma) sandstones of the Hengchun Peninsula, southern Taiwan, which, based on diametrically opposite palaeocurrents, have a controversial provenance. U–Pb grain ages range from the Miocene (8 Ma) to Archaean (2.5 Ga). Cretaceous thermal cooling is recorded by detrital zircon fission tracks at Loshui and Lilongshan. Permian fission‐track grain ages account for <33% of zircon ages from Loshui, while at Lilongshan, Jurassic/Triassic grain ages account for 33–66% of all zircon fission‐track ages. Minor (<12%) Miocene age components are detected in both formations. These new data suggest that the primary sources of these Miocene sediments were similar. A simple model is proposed invoking sediment reworking in this complex tectonic setting. Terra Nova, 00, 000–000, 2010     

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.     

European Integration,Urban Economic Change,and Public Policy Responses

Most empirical work on changing disparities in income during recently increased European integration examines the European Union (EU)‐defined regions because of a dearth of readily available urban units of analysis and economic indicators. Moreover, a lack of systematic data on urban entrepreneurial efforts fuels debate over their effectiveness in enhancing urban prosperity. I combine a quantitative analysis of trends in income disparities for the Western European urban system for 1980‐1994, with comparative case studies using qualitative and quantitative information for three problem cities in Britain that were selected in order to investigate the types and effectiveness of their urban entrepreneurial efforts. On the one hand, the macro analysis provides no clear evidence of convergence in urban incomes. On the other hand, while the public‐private partnerships in the problem cities vary somewhat depending on local context, their entrepreneurial strategies are remarkably similar. Higher levels of economic development spending, however, do not translate necessarily into improved urban performance.