Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales

Trends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series.     

Changes in diatom assemblages since pre-industrial times in 40 reference lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (northwestern Ontario,Canada)

Diatom assemblages in recent versus pre-industrial sediments were examined in 40 relatively undisturbed lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA). The ELA region of northwestern Ontario receives low amounts of acidic deposition and the lakes have been minimally disturbed by watershed development or other human activities. Consequently, this region represents an important location to detect possible changes in lakes due to climate change. In over half of the lakes, planktonic taxa (especially Discostella stelligera) increased between 10 and 40% since pre-industrial times. Changes in diatom assemblages are consistent with taxa that would benefit from enhanced stratification and a longer ice-free season. We hypothesized that there should be a relationship between stratification and measured chemical and physical characteristics of the study lakes. Multiple correlation analysis was undertaken to see the relationship between planktonic taxa and D. stelligera since pre-industrial times and the physical and chemical characteristics of the study lakes. Lake depth was consistently identified as an important variable. The timing of the increase in planktonic taxa within cores from these lakes will be needed to rule out other possible regional changes that may also be occurring in the ELA region.     

A new radiospectrograph at Culgoora

IPS Radio and Space Services (IPS) commissioned a new radiospectrograph for solar observations in May 1992. The instrument operates over a frequency range from 18 MHz to 1.8 GHz and samples every three seconds. Digital data acquisition permits a variety of analysis procedures that were not previously possible. The operation of the new instrument is briefly described and some example radiospectrograms are presented.     

A flood-dominated mesotidal inlet

Tidal inlets along the mesotidal coast of Maine contrast with those from other parts of the world by being dominated by flood-tidal currents. Analysis of the factors responsible for flood or ebb dominance indicates factors external to the backbarrier environment. We suggest that the flood dominance is caused by both a steepening of the tidal wave in the Gulf of Maine and the shallow depth of the ebb-tidal delta and spit platform. Flood currents are typically 10–20 cm/sec stronger than the ebb at the inlet throat. The flood dominance results in a significant net landward transport of sediment into the backbarrier.     

Evidence for temporally coherent increases in the abundance of small Discostella (Bacillariophyceae) species over the past 200 years among boreal lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (Canada)

Journal of Paleolimnology - Increased relative abundances and accumulation rates of the small, centric diatom Discostella have been recorded in numerous paleolimnological investigations of north...     

Calcium levels in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Daphnia</Emphasis> ephippia cannot provide a useful paleolimnological indicator of historical lakewater Ca concentrations

Despite reductions in atmospheric sulphur emissions and the resulting decline in acidic deposition, many lakes on the Canadian Shield that have experienced acidification are either recovering at a rate slower than expected or not recovering at all. This lack of recovery is believed to be partly the consequence of the depletion of exchangeable base cations (principally calcium, Ca) from watershed soils. Although the implications of reduced Ca availability for biological communities remain poorly understood, the effects on crustacean zooplankton populations may be severe, as Ca is the primary structural component of the crustacean zooplankton exoskeleton. Because the daphniid resting egg is protected by a modified portion of the exoskeleton (ephippia) and because these ephippia are well preserved in lake sediments, we investigated whether inter-specific differences in Ca content are recoverable from Daphnia ephippia. However, using two methods, we did not find a recoverable Ca signal in the ephippia, indicating that future efforts should be focused upon sedimentary taxonomic assemblage differences, not differences in ephippial Ca levels.     

Scutocyamus antipodensis n.sp. (Amphipoda: Cyamidae) on Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) from New Zealand

The whale‐louse Scutocyamus antipodensis n.sp., ectoparasitic on Hector's dolphin, Cephalorhynchus hectori (van Beneden), is described and figured from material collected in Cloudy Bay, Cook Strait, New Zealand. Morphologically the new species is very close to S. parvus Lincoln & Hurley, the type and only other species of the genus, known only from the North Sea. However, the two species differ in the detailed structure and spinosity of the body and pereopods.     

Predicting survival of western rock lobsters Panulirus cygnus using discriminant analysis of haemolymph parameters taken immediately following simulated handling treatments

Instances of morbidity amongst rock lobsters (Panulirus cygnus) arriving at factories in Western Australia (WA) have been attributed to stress during post‐harvest handling. This study used discriminant analysis to determine whether physiological correlates of stress following a period of simulated post‐harvest handling had any validity as predictors of future rejection or morbidity of western rock lobsters. Groups of 230 western rock lobsters were stored for 6 h in five environments (submerged/flowing sea water, submerged/recirculating sea water, humid air, flowing seawater spray, and recirculated seawater spray). The experiment was conducted in late spring (ambient sea water 22°C), and repeated again in early autumn (ambient sea water 26°C). After 6 h treatment, each lobster was graded for acceptability for live export, numbered, and its haemolymph was sampled. The samples were analysed for a number of physiological and health status parameters. The lobsters were then stored for a week in tanks in the live lobster factory to record mortality. The mortality of lobsters in the factory was associated with earlier deviations in haemolymph parameters as they emerged from the storage treatments. Discriminant analysis (DA) of the haemolymph assays enabled the fate of 80–90% of the lobsters to be correctly categorised within each experiment. However, functions derived from one experiment were less accurate at predicting mortality when applied to the other experiments. One of the reasons for this was the higher mortality and the more severe patho‐physiological changes observed in lobsters stored in humid air or sprays at the higher temperature. The analysis identified lactate accumulation during emersion and associated physiological and haemocyte‐related effects as a major correlate of mortality. Reducing these deviations, for example by submerged transport, is expected to ensure high levels of survival. None of the indicators tested predicted mortality with total accuracy. The simplest and most accurate means of comparing emersed treatments was to count the mortality afterwards.