利用谱聚类方法研究新丰江库区的震源机制解

为检验震源机制解谱聚类方法的实用性,选择新丰江库区为研究区域,利用FOCMEC方法反演了该区域2012年1月1日—2018年12月31日M_L2.0以上地震的震源机制解,并对其进行了谱聚类分析,最终获得该区域7种震源机制解类型;通过分析每种类型的震源机制解特征及其时空分布特征,探讨了震源机制解类型分布与区域构造的关系。结果表明:(1)新丰江库区地震破裂类型以正断型为主,兼有部分倾滑分量,其次为走滑型;(2)不同类型的震源机制解具有区域性的空间分布特征,主要受不同的构造背景影响,反映了新丰江库区地震活动和构造特征之间的关系;(3)不同类型震源机制解所描述的断裂分布反映了峡谷及大坝区库水渗透的构造条件,解释了区域地震频发的可能原因;(4)每种类型的震源机制解在研究时间范围内数量变化较为稳定。     

福建明溪上地幔热结构及流变学特征

通过对采自福建明溪的幔源包体样品的详细研究,建立了该区上地幔的地温线,探讨其流变学特征。所获地温线高于大洋地温线,但稍低于中国东部和澳大利亚东南部地温线。由该地温线推导的壳幔边界为３８ｋｍ左右,但尖晶石二辉橄榄岩在３２ｋｍ左右即已开始出现,表明存在上地幔物质的底侵作用。同样,尖晶石二辉橄榄岩和石榴子石二辉橄榄岩包体平衡温度有所重叠,表明两者不是截然分开,其间存在有５￣１０ｋｍ的过渡带。包体的变形特     

Lateral extrusion along the Altyn Tagh Fault,Qilian Shan (NE Tibet): insight from a 3D crustal budget

The lithospheric strike‐slip Altyn Tagh Fault has accommodated hundreds of kilometres of displacement between the Qaidam and Tarim blocks since its Eocene reactivation. However, the way the deformation is accommodated in the Qilian Shan and further east remains uncertain. Based on 360 km of north‐eastward migration of the relatively rigid Qaidam block along the Altyn Tagh Fault and 3D isovolumetric balancing of the crustal deformation within the Altyn Tagh Fault–Qilian Shan system, we demonstrate that 250 ± 28 km (43.8–49.4%) of N20E directed crustal shortening and an additional ~250–370 km of eastward motion of the Qilian Shan crust must be accounted for by strike‐slip faulting in the Qilian Shan and crustal thickening in the Qinling area, as well as by extension in the adjoining North China block graben systems.     

Is it possible to detect earlier ionospheric precursors before large earthquakes using principal component analysis (PCA)?

The goal of this study was to determine whether principal component analysis (PCA) can be used to process GPS ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data on a monthly basis to identify early earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. PCA is applied to GPS (mean value of a month) ionospheric TEC records collected from the Japan GEONET system to detect TEC anomalies associated with 10 earthquakes in Japan (M?≥?6.0) from 2006 to 2007. According to the results, PCA was able to discriminate clear TEC anomalies in the months when all 10 earthquakes occurred. After reviewing the months when no M?≥?6.0 earthquake occurred but the geomagnetic storm activity was present, it is possible that the maximal principal eigenvalues PCA returned for these 10 earthquakes indicate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. Previously, PCA has been used to discriminate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies recognized by other researchers who found that a statistical association between large earthquakes and TEC anomalies could be established in the 5 days before earthquake nucleation and in 24 h before earthquake; however, since PCA uses the characteristics of principal eigenvalues to determine earthquake-related TEC anomalies, it is possible to show that such anomalies existed earlier than this 5-day statistical window. In this paper, this is shown through the application of PCA to one-dimensional TEC data relating to the earthquake of 17 February 2007 (M?=?6.0). The analysis is applied to daily TEC and reveals a large principal eigenvalue (representative of an earthquake-associated anomaly) for 02 February, 15 days before the 17 February earthquake.     

岩溶洞穴次生碳酸盐沉积铀及其同位素组成古气候环境研究进展

洞穴沉积铀含量及其同位素初始234U/238U[（234U/238U)0]变化均与过去气候环境变化关系密切。文章分别对石笋中U含量和(234U/238U)0的气候意义进行统计分析发现,多数研究认为洞穴沉积U含量和(234U/238U)0可能指示土壤湿度和有效降水变化。然而,不管是对洞穴沉积的U含量还是(234U/238U)0,其气候环境意义解读还存在两种观点。但无论如何,这些研究成果都显示了洞穴沉积的U含量和(234U/238U)0是研究过去气候环境变化的重要替代指标。在未来的研究中,除了土壤环境和过程,还应关注U来源的相对贡献变化和其他微量元素与U元素的关系。这一指标可能在对东亚地区的大气粉尘活动和冬季风演化、地表生物量的变化研究等方面发挥重要作用。      

GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统极小化算法预调节

在进行多次外循环更新的增量分析框架下,前一次极小化迭代过程中产生的信息可提供给下一次极小化做预调节。该文在GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统中对极小化算法——L-BFGS算法实施了这种预调节,通过全观测的个例试验和批量试验进行评估,发现进行预调节后L-BFGS算法的收敛效率得到明显提高,而且在1个月的循环试验中表现十分稳定。该工作可以帮助GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统有效减少极小化的迭代次数,有利于满足业务化运行的时效要求。另外,间隔6 h和间隔24 h的两次4DVar分析对应的海森矩阵变化不大,因此,前一时刻极小化过程产生的信息提供给后一时刻的极小化进行预调节也有一定效果。     

海洋围隔生态系中环境因子对长牡蛎的生态效应

本研究应用海洋围隔实验技术探索围隔生态系中环境因子对长牡蛎的生态效应。研究结果表明：牡蛎养殖密度与牡蛎体重增长呈负相关;养殖水体的Ｎ、Ｐ平均浓度分别达到２６．４和２．５μｍｏｌ／ｄｍ＾３的水平时牡蛎生物较佳;服物浓度过高会导致牡蛎死     

东海黑潮水与陆架水的季节性输运和交换

在流星分析和ｔ－Ｓ点聚分析的基础上，在台湾东北部ＩＳ断面和东海中部ＰＮ断面上选取适当的纵剖面作为分界面，将以面分成东、西两侧，计算了界面两侧的海水交换星。结果表明：１．东海陆架区海水交换可归纳为两种类型，即“穿插型”和“进退型”。２．参与分界面处海水交换总量的年平均是夏季最大，春、秋季次之，冬季最小。黑潮水向陆架区输运量为０．５８×１０６ｍ３／ｓ，陆架水向黑潮刚输运量为０．８４×１０６ｍ３／ｓ；参与交换的总量为１．４２×１０６ｍ３／ｓ．３．相对输运量计算结果表明；黑潮水对陆架区水文状况的影响是冬季最强，秋、春季次之，夏季最弱，而陆架水对黑潮区水文状况的影响是夏季最大，秋季次之，春季和冬季最小。     

环莫干山民宿的时空分布特征与成因

民宿是中国乡村振兴和旅游转型升级过程中涌现出的新兴业态和空间利用方式,但学术关注滞后。环莫干山地区是目前中国最典型的民宿发展集聚区之一。本研究通过官方统计资料和实地调研获取环莫干山民宿空间发展数据,构建了ArcGIS和地理探测器结合的民宿空间过程分析方法,基于目的地的微观尺度系统地探讨环莫干山民宿时空分布特征和成因。研究发现：① 2011—2017年环莫干山民宿呈现出逐年增长的态势,空间分布范围不断扩大,空间发展方向出现较大变化,逐渐趋向镇域均衡性发展。目前已经在莫干山风景区毗邻村域形成以“后坞-仙潭-燎原-劳岭-兰树坑”为中心的环莫干山面状核心集聚区和边缘村域多点集聚的民宿空间发展结构。不同档次民宿的时空发展趋势具有一定差异。② 环莫干山民宿的空间过程由集聚到强烈集聚,不同档次民宿的集聚程度均呈现出快速提升的趋势。空间发展过程中早期民宿集聚点扩散效应显著。空间集聚过程与地形地势、核心风景区、交通干线和居民点密切相关。③ 风景景观、发展基础、社会因素和区位因素是环莫干山民宿景观格局异质性的重要决定因素维度,但不同等级民宿的空间决定因素维度和指标差异性显著,两因素维度交互作用对于民宿的空间影响力更为显著。研究对于丰富接待业空间选址的类型研究,总结中国典型民宿集聚区空间发展模式具有重要理论意义,同时对于民宿产业选址和民宿集聚区规划实践具有一定现实意义。     

A numerical investigation of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation

Abstract

In this study, the development of a moderate coastal storm with intense precipitation that occurred during 12–14 February 1993 is examined using a high‐resolution version of the Canadian Regional Finite‐element (RFE) model with more realistic physical representations. It is shown that the improved RFE model predicts well the coastal cyclogenesis events and also the distribution and intensity of heavy mixed precipitation (rain and snow) associated with the storm. It is found that the cyclogenesis takes place in response to the low‐level inshore advection of high‐θ_e air from the maritime boundary layer, and the approach of a mid‐level shortwave trough with a warm pool above that is previously associated with a decaying cyclone upstream. More rapid deepening of the cyclone ensues as intense precipitation falls along the warm and cold fronts near the cyclone centre.

Diagnosis of the control and sensitivity simulations reveals that the low‐level inshore warm advection and the propagation of the stratospheric warm pool contribute more significantly to the surface pressure falls during the incipient stage, whereas the mid‐level shortwave trough plays an important role in the cyclogenesis at later stages. Overall, latent heat release accounts for about 50% of the cyclone's total deepening, in agreement with the presence of a moderate baroclinic environment and the generation of intense precipitation.

The diabatic and kinematic structures near the rain‐snow boundary are examined to gain insight into the influence of melting snow on the cyclogenesis. It is shown that the improved RFE model reproduces well the rain‐snow boundary structures as previously observed. Moreover, a thermally indirect circulation (perturbation) can be seen in the vicinity of the rain‐snow boundary. It is found, however, that melting of snow tends to produce a weak negative or negligible impact on the cyclogenesis, as opposed to previous hypotheses.