Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security

Identification of ‘critical thresholds’ of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model – CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km × 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO₂ fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 ^{^}C; when the CO₂ fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China’s food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9–3.9 ^{^}C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China’s internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO₂ fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO₂ fertilization was considered.     

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years

Summary A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO₂ concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO₂ concentration remains constant at present, the CO₂ greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO₂ greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.     

大型沉水植物狐尾藻不同盖度的光谱特征

地物特征与其光谱特征的关系是解译遥感影像的关键。本研究利用ASD便携式地物光谱仪对上海崇明国际湿地公园人工湖中的沉水植物狐尾藻的反射光谱进行了初步研究。结果表明,随狐尾藻盖度的增加,其光谱反射率、一阶和二阶导数红边斜率的峰值也相应增加,不同盖度狐尾藻的光谱反射率的差异主要表现在500—650nm和700—900nm波段范围。分别对狐尾藻盖度与这些波段的光谱反射率及根据一阶和二阶导数获得的光谱指数进行回归分析,得到了较好的线性关系。应用回归分析得到的线性方程,可以根据测定的光谱反射率定量反演水体中的狐尾藻盖度。研究结果可为监测大型沉水植物的高光谱遥感影像解译和分类提供技术支撑,为大尺度遥感监测沉水植物的分布和动态变化提供科学依据。     

一种新型的遥感影像压缩质量评价指标

针对遥感影像的特性,提出了一个用于压缩质量评价的多维结构模型,该结构模型由影像特征畸变、纹理畸变和相关性损失三个"维"组成,在此基础上提出一种新的构像质量综合性评价指标。实验证明,该指标与传统的PSNR指标相比,与主观评价结果具有较好的吻合性。     

武汉台形变观测与降雨参数之间的定量分析与研究

基于“前兆台网(站)观测数据跟踪分析平台”,对武汉台形变观测资料进行了系统分析,提取出观测曲线受降雨干扰影响的事件,采用降雨总量、初始驱动降雨量和瞬时降雨量最大值等降雨参数对降雨干扰事件进行统计分析。结果表明:降雨总量达40 mm、初始驱动降雨量为0.3 mm或瞬时降雨量最大值达0.6 mm时,DSQ型水管倾斜仪易受降雨干扰;SSY型铟瓦棒伸缩仪当降雨总量超60 mm或瞬时降雨量最大值大于0.5 mm时易受降雨干扰;VS型垂直摆倾斜仪受降雨干扰与降雨总量、初始驱动降雨量和瞬时降雨量最大值无显著相关关系;降雨总量对形变仪器观测物理量的影响基本呈现线性;而形变仪器观测物理量与初始驱动降雨量、瞬时降雨量最大值无显著相关关系。认为武汉台形变观测受降雨影响主要来自降雨渗透影响和周边水体荷载变化影响两个方面。     

塔里木盆地及周缘南华系和震旦系划分对比研究

塔里木盆地及周缘南华系、震旦系广泛发育，是揭示前寒武纪重大地质事件的重要地区之一，然而其研究程度低于华南、华北地区。早期认为塔里木盆地及周缘南华系、震旦系可划分为哈尔克山、柯坪、库鲁克塔格、铁克里克及塔克拉玛干等五个分区，由于各分区研究程度及资料之间的差异较大，且近期盆地内部钻井揭示越来越多，地层划分对比问题逐渐突出，传统分区方案面临诸多挑战。综合地质、地震等多学科资料认为，塔里木南华纪原型盆地基底、充填过程、分布统一具有南北分异的特征，区域地层格架剖面显示南华纪-震旦纪原型盆地分布于中央古隆起南北两侧，表现出北强南弱的不同地震反射特征。因此，本文以原型盆地中南、北分异的特征为原则进行地层分区，大致以现今中央隆起带南缘为界，分为北部地层分区和南部地层分区。北部可划分为东北部库鲁克塔格地层小区和西部阿克苏地层小区，其中阿克苏地层小区包括原方案中柯坪、塔克拉玛干北部、哈尔克山分区；南部初步划分出铁克里克地层小区，具体有待完善。震旦纪末期，受柯坪运动"大继承、小改造"的演化模式影响，北部地层分区广泛发育下寒武统烃源岩。因此，塔里木盆地及周缘新元古界分区新方案既符合南北不同的超大陆动力学背景，又控制下寒武统烃源岩分布，理论意义与勘探意义明显。     

Static load tests of driven concrete piles under CFRP confinement

ABSTRACT

This paper describes compressive static load tests of concrete driven piles confined by Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP). The tested piles include one concrete pipe pile and one concrete rectangular pile which are all partially confined by CFRP, and other two piles with the same dimensions without CFRP application. Tests program was performed to obtain the behaviours of these composite piles. Four Static Loading Tests (SLTs) were conducted and the results shown that those two types of composite pile demonstrate less vertical displacement with the same loading of traditional concrete piles. Furthermore, the traditional methods of Load-settlement (Q-s) curves, Settlement-lg (Load) (s-lgQ) curves and Settlement-lg (Time) curves are analysed. Due to un-plunging condition, the interpretation methods of Davisson’s, DeBeers, Double-Tangent as well as Chin’s methods are demonstrated for the ultimate bearing capacity of these four piles. It is concluded that the CFRP confinement increased the ultimate bearing capacity and this composite material can be perfectly applied in geotechnical condition.     

青海煤炭资源勘查开发的生态地质条件分析

本文基于对青海省内不同含煤盆地资源赋存地质规律的认识,结合赋煤构造单元划分和生态功能分区方案,将青海省划分为沙漠戈壁、草甸湿地、高原山地、冰川河源和高山河谷五大生态赋煤区,研究和分析了不同赋煤区的资源、生态和经济特征,提出研究资源勘查开发与生态环境保护、经济发展之间的关系,认为柴北缘沙漠戈壁生态赋煤区下一步资源勘查勘查开发的重点区域,祁连山草甸湿地生态赋煤区需在做好生态保护的前提下开展资源勘查开发,其他分区的资源均在资源、经济与生态方面不同时具备条件。     

涟源凹陷泥盆纪佘田桥组沉积与地震相特征

涟源凹陷泥盆纪佘田桥组为台盆相间的海相沉积,盆地相为有利的页岩气富集区。目前对台盆相研究多依靠地质露头和少量测井资料,对台盆相地震相特征研究较少,从而制约着本区页岩气勘探进展。本文基于新采集的二维地震资料,从湘新地3井钻井岩心资料和测录井资料入手,通过对该井主要目的层的合成记录标定、目的层反射轴响应特征分析等工作,开展佘田桥组沉积相序划分及地震相特征分析。结果表明:泥盆纪佘田桥组台地相地震反射特征为不连续弱振幅杂乱-亚平行结构,盆地相地震反射特征为连续强振幅平行结构,并在此基础上利用地震相特征开展佘田桥组有利相区平面预测,明确了佘田桥组盆地相分布范围,为佘田桥组页岩气勘探提供部署依据。     

风浪作用下水生植物对水流结构的影响——以太湖中两种典型沉水植物为例

为研究风浪作用下水生植物对水流结构的影响,选取太湖中两种典型沉水植物(苦草与马来眼子菜)为研究对象,分别对苦草植物斑块与马来眼子菜植物斑块内外水体的瞬时流速进行野外现场测量,利用瞬时流速的能量谱分布将波浪流速与紊动流速分离,分别分析水生植物对时均流速、波浪流速以及紊动能的影响。风浪影响下,水体中存在流向与测量时近水面处盛行风向一致的水流;波浪流速以垂向流速为主,且波浪流速自水面向床底逐渐减小;紊动能在水面处达到最大值,并向床底方向逐渐减小。与无植被条件相比,苦草与马来眼子菜的存在减小了时均流速、波浪流速以及紊动能。两种植物形态上的差异,导致其对水流结构的影响不同:苦草叶片阻流面积在冠层中部达到最大,使得时均流速与波浪流速在苦草中部位置的减小程度最大;马来眼子菜叶片主要集中于冠层顶部(水面附近),其对时均流速以及波浪流速的减小作用在水面处达到最大。