Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

蔚广盆地南缘断裂带唐山口段山前断层活动性研究

蔚广盆地是山西地堑系北端京西北盆岭构造区内的一个半地堑盆地,蔚广盆地南缘断裂带为控制该盆地形成的边界断裂。该断裂带位于唐山口段的山前断裂在冲洪积扇体上形成了线性特征显著的断层陡坎。横跨断层陡坎开挖的探槽表明该条山前断裂属于全新世活动断裂,探槽揭示了2条活动断层以及相应的3次古地震事件。在距今约9ka时其中一条断层首次活动,之后在距今约7.3ka时该条断层再次活动并引发了另一条断层的形成与同步活动。最后它们又发生了第三次活动,而最新一次活动的时间由于相应地表沉积的缺失而无法获得。这3次古地震事件的累积垂直位错约为8.1m。估算出整条山前断裂的平均复发周期约为1.7ka、平均滑动速率约为1.6mm/a。此外还依据经验公式估算出了各次古地震的参考震级。     

Processes of initial collision and suturing between India and Asia

The initial collision between Indian and Asian continents marked the starting point for transformation of land-sea thermal contrast, uplift of the Tibet-Himalaya orogen, and climate change in Asia. In this paper, we review the published literatures from the past 30 years in order to draw consensus on the processes of initial collision and suturing that took place between the Indian and Asian plates. Following a comparison of the different methods that have been used to constrain the initial timing of collision, we propose that the tectono-sedimentary response in the peripheral foreland basin provides the most sensitive index of this event, and that paleomagnetism presents independent evidence as an alternative, reliable, and quantitative research method. In contrast to previous studies that have suggested collision between India and Asia started in Pakistan between ca. 55 Ma and 50 Ma and progressively closed eastwards, more recent researches have indicated that this major event first occurred in the center of the Yarlung Tsangpo suture zone (YTSZ) between ca. 65 Ma and 63 Ma and then spreading both eastwards and westwards. While continental collision is a complicated process, including the processes of deformation, sedimentation, metamorphism, and magmatism, different researchers have tended to define the nature of this event based on their own understanding, an intuitive bias that has meant that its initial timing has remained controversial for decades. Here, we recommend the use of reconstructions of each geological event within the orogenic evolution sequence as this will allow interpretation of collision timing on the basis of multidisciplinary methods.     

沉积物粒度组分空间预测的神经网络残余kriging方法

针对近海表层沉积物粒度组分空间变异的尺度差异性,提出了基于广义回归神经网络残余kriging的沉积物粒度组分空间预测方法,并以海州湾沉积物粒度数据为基础,分析了其在沉积物粒度组分空间预测和底质类型制图中的应用效果。结果表明,广义回归神经网络残余kriging方法能够获得比普通kriging方法更高的沉积物粒度组分空间预测精度,并且其底质类型的总体空间预测精度达到85%以上,相应的Kappa系数也在0.8以上,显示底质制图的预测类型与样本的实测类型具有较高的一致性。新方法对于开展定量化的沉积物粒度组分空间预测和底质类型制图具有参考价值。     

山东地磁台网受宁东高压直流输电干扰预处理质量分析

为进一步提高山东地磁台网受高压直流输电干扰的预处理质量,通过中国地震前兆数据处理系统中相对差值检测和预处理检测功能,对山东地磁台网多年来受宁东高压直流输电干扰预处理情况进行了总结分析。结果表明,经过数据预处理,宁东高压直流输电干扰基本被去除,但仍然存在高压直流输电干扰误判、起止时间错判、干扰幅度计量不精确等问题。针对上述问题,对数据进行复核和校对,应用"缓变台阶"功能重新处理,并加强对H、D分量干扰特征的研究。     

Carboniferous integrative stratigraphy and timescale of China

The Carboniferous period lasted about 60 Myr, from ～358.9 Ma to ～298.9 Ma. According to the International Commission on Stratigraphy, the Carboniferous System is subdivided into two subsystems, i.e., Mississippian and Pennsylvanian, including 6 series and 7 stages. The Global Stratotype Sections and Points(GSSPs) of three stages have been ratified, the Tournaisian, Visean, and Bashkirian stages. The GSSPs of the remaining four stages(i.e., the Serpukhovian, Moscovian,Kasimovian, and Gzhelian) have not been ratified so far. This paper outlines Carboniferous stratigraphic subdivision and correlation on the basis of detailed biostratigraphy mainly from South China, and summarizes the Carboniferous chronostratigraphic framework of China. High-resolution biostratigraphic study reveals 37 conodont zones, 24 foraminiferal(including fusulinid) zones, 13 ammonoid zones, 10 brachiopod zones, and 10 rugose coral zones in the Carboniferous of China. The biostratigraphic framework based on these biozones warrants the precise correlation of regional stratigraphy of China(including2 subsystems, 4 series, and 8 stages) to that of the other regions globally. Meanwhile, the Carboniferous chemo-, sequence-,cyclo-, and event-stratigraphy of China have been intensively studied and can also be correlated worldwide. Future studies on the Carboniferous in China should focus on(1) the correlation between shallow-and deep-water facies and between marine and continental facies,(2) high-resolution astronomical cyclostratigraphy, and(3) paleoenvironment and paleoclimate analysis based on geochemical proxies such as strontium and oxygen isotopes, as well as stomatal indices of fossil plants.     

Edge-driven convection and thinning of craton lithosphere: Two-dimensional thermal-mechanical modeling

Science China Earth Sciences - There are usually abrupt changes in lithospheric thickness at the boundaries between ancient cratons and adjacent young mobile belts. Lateral variations in...     

建筑结构地震易损性分析研究综述

地震易损性是指在不同强度水平的地震作用下建筑结构发生各种破坏的条件概率。本文对地震易损性分析的发展历程进行回顾和总结,介绍了地震易损性的相关概念、研究目的和意义以及5个表达工具。随后,针对国内外学者对建筑结构的易损性分析方法开展了系统的梳理和分析,特别是从基于震害调查的经验分析法和基于数值模拟的理论计算法方面展开了重点综述,并简单介绍了一些不常用的方法。最后指出了国内外对建筑结构易损性分析研究的不足和未来的研究方向。