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广东2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气象应急响应 总被引:16,自引:4,他引:12
2008年初我国南方遭受了百年一遇低温雨雪冰冻灾害,广东的受灾程度属80年一遇,造成了重大经济损失和严重社会影响.分析发现:灾害过程在近年来最严重的一次"拉尼娜"事件背景下发生的,与欧亚地区持续大气环流异常密切相关.在"北脊南槽"和西太平洋副高偏北偏强的形势下,冷暖气流在我国南方地区频繁交汇,使对流层中低层形成逆温层和局地经向环流产生异常,造成了此次持续低温雨雪冰冻过程.面对灾害引发的公共事件,广东省气象部门打破常规、准确预警,启动预案,通过媒体和"公共事件预警信息发布平台",及时传播权威的公共预警信息,为安定民心、稳定社会、减少灾害起到积极作用.灾后反思发现,山区冰灾的监测、灾害的评估、公共信息发布等的能力和规范均亟待加强. 相似文献
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Hung-Ming Lin Shun-Kung Chang Jian-Hong Wu C. Hsein Juang 《Engineering Geology》2009,104(3-4):280-289
This paper is aimed at creating an empirical model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes, with a special attention to the failure characteristics of the highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan area prior to, and post, the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The basis of the study is a large database of 955 slope records from four highways in the Alishan area. Artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to “learn” from this database. The developed ANN model is then used to study the effect of the Chi-Chi earthquake on the slope failure characteristics in the Alishan area. Significant changes in the degrees of influence of several factors (variables) are found and possible reasons for such changes are discussed. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that the developed ANN models are used as a tool to investigate the slope failure characteristics before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. 相似文献
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According to the optimal control theory, the optimal control problem of the low-thrust tra jectory can be converted into a solution of nonlinear two- point boundary-value problem (TPBVP). To solve the TPBVP, the repeated random guesses for the initial costate variables and iterative computations are needed. In order to enhance the convergence of the iterations, we select an appropriate performance index, and then linearize the equations of the TPBVP around a Keplerian orbit. For multi-revolution transfers, instead of the multi- revolution Lambert tra jectory, multiple segmented Keplerian arcs are used to ensure the effectiveness of the linearization. The method is totally automatic with multiple iterations. With this method, we can get the results within 3 ∼ 5 iterations, and the random guess of the initial costates is unnecessary. Finally by the iterative optimization of the performance index, a better control strategy approaching to the bang-bang control is obtained. 相似文献
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The non-spherical gravitational potential of the planet Mars is sig- nificantly different from that of the Earth. The magnitudes of Mars’ tesseral harmonic coefficients are basically ten times larger than the corresponding val- ues of the Earth. Especially, the magnitude of its second degree and order tesseral harmonic coefficient J2,2 is nearly 40 times that of the Earth, and approaches to the one tenth of its second zonal harmonic coefficient J2. For a low-orbit Mars probe, if the required accuracy of orbit prediction of 1-day arc length is within 500 m (equivalent to the order of magnitude of 10−4 standard unit), then the coupled terms of J2 with the tesseral harmonics, and even those of the tesseral harmonics themselves, which are negligible for the Earth satellites, should be considered when the analytical perturbation solution of its orbit is built. In this paper, the analytical solutions of the coupled terms are presented. The anal- ysis and numerical verification indicate that the effect of the above-mentioned coupled perturbation on the orbit may exceed 10−4 in the along-track direc- tion. The conclusion is that the solutions of Earth satellites cannot be simply used without any modification when dealing with the analytical perturbation solutions of Mars-orbiting satellites, and that the effect of the coupled terms of Mars's non-spherical gravitational potential discussed in this paper should be taken into consideration. 相似文献