From paleo to policy: partitioning the historical point and nonpoint phosphorus loads to the St. Croix River,Minnesota-Wisconsin,USA

Paleolimnological studies show that phosphorus (P) loads to the federally protected St. Croix River, a tributary of the Upper Mississippi River, have increased about threefold over the last century. Ongoing management efforts to protect and restore the river hinge on the question of whether the increased nutrient load results from point-source discharges or nonpoint runoff from agricultural intensification and urban expansion. Here we determine the historical contribution of point source phosphorus (P) loads to the St. Croix watershed from 1900–2000 A.D. Historical point source loads were estimated based on discharge volumes, demographics, industrial sources, wastewater technologies, and facility discharge records, where available. Sewering in the basin began in 1905, and since that time, there have been as many as 169 permitted point source dischargers basinwide, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural facilities. Early wastewater management typically discharged untreated sewage; technological advances had secondary treatment in place at most facilities by the 1960s–1970s and much of the municipal population was served by tertiary treatment by the 1990s. Peak nutrient discharges from point sources occurred in the 1960s–1970s. Detergent phosphorus bans instituted in the late 1970s for Minnesota and Wisconsin, greater use of land and groundwater effluent disposal, and improvements in treatment technology brought about decreases in P loads in the 1980s and 1990s. Point-source discharges were compared to historical total phosphorus loads estimated in a whole-basin phosphorus mass balance to calculate the historical contribution of point sources, anthropogenic nonpoint sources, and natural or background sources. We estimated 1990s point source loads at 48 t P yr⁻¹, which represents about 10% of the total phosphorus load (459 t P yr⁻¹, flow-corrected to 412 t P yr⁻¹) to the basin. Without further controls on nutrient inputs to the St. Croix River, annual flow-corrected P loads are projected to increase to 498 t P yr⁻¹ by the 2020s with point source phosphorus loading contributions at 65 t P yr⁻¹ or 13% of the total load. However, if we exclude background P loads to the St. Croix (166 t P yr⁻¹), recent nutrient loads are primarily from anthropogenic nonpoint sources. Point sources also contribute over 19% of the current and future phosphorus load that can be attributed to human activities in the watershed. Interstate and federal efforts to decrease P loading to the St. Croix River by 20% will need to target both point and nonpoint sources. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Parameterization of Sheared Convective Entrainment in the First-Order Jump Model: Evaluation Through Large-Eddy Simulation

In this note, two different approaches are used to estimate the entrainment-flux to surface-flux ratio for a sheared convective boundary layer (CBL); both are derived under the framework of the first-order jump model (FOM). That suggested by Sun and Wang (SW approach) has the advantage that there is no empirical constant included, though the dynamics are described in an implicit manner. The second, which was proposed by Kim et al. and Pino et al. (KP approach), explicitly characterizes the dynamics of the sheared entrainment, but uncertainties are induced through the empirical constants. Their performances in parameterizing the CBL growth rate are compared and discussed, and a new value of the parameter A ₃ in the KP approach is suggested. Large-eddy simulation (LES) data are employed to test both approaches: simulations are conducted for the CBL growing under varying conditions of surface roughness, free-atmospheric stratification, and wind shear, and data used when the turbulence is in steady state. The predicted entrainment rates in each case are tested against the LES data. The results show that the SW approach describes the evolution of the sheared CBL quite well, and the KP approach also reproduces the growth of the CBL reasonably, so long as the value of A ₃ is modified to 0.6.     

Effect of perturbations on the non linear stability of triangular points in the restricted three-body problem with variable mass

The effect of small perturbations ε and ε ^′ in the Coriolis and the centrifugal forces, respectively on the nonlinear stability of the triangular points in the restricted three-body problem with variable mass has been studied. It is found that, in the nonlinear sense, the triangular points are stable for all mass ratios in the range of linear stability except for three mass ratios, which depend upon ε, ε ^′ and β, the constant due to the variation in mass governed by Jeans’ law.     

Petrogenesis of the Greenhills Complex,Southland, New Zealand: magmatic differentiation and cumulate formation at the roots of a Permian island-arc volcano

A Permian (~265 Ma) intrusive complex which formed as a magmatic feeder reservoir to an immature island-arc volcano is fortuitously exposed in southern New Zealand. Known as the Greenhills Complex, this intrusion was emplaced at shallow crustal levels and consists of two layered bodies which were later intruded by a variety of dykes. Cumulates, which include dunite, olivine clinopyroxenite, olivine gabbro, and hornblende gabbro-norite, are related products of parent-magma fractionation. Both primary (magmatic) and secondary platinum-group minerals occur within dunite at one locality. Using the composition of cumulus minerals, mafic dykes and melt inclusions, we have determined that the parent magmas of the complex were hydrous, low-K island-arc tholeiites of ankaramitic affinities. Progressive magmatic differentiation of this parent magma generated fractionated melt of high-alumina basalt composition which is now preserved only as dykes which cut the Complex. Field evidence and cumulus mineral profiles reveal that the magma chambers experienced turbulent magmatic conditions during cumulate-rock formation. Recharge of the chambers by primitive magma is likely to have coincided with eruption of residual melt at the surface. Similar processes are inferred to account for volcanic-rock compositions in other parts of this arc terrane and in modern island-arc systems.     

Heavy minerals of the Barakar Formation,Talchir Gondwana Basin,Orissa

Heavy mineral analysis has been carried out in the Barakar Formation of the Talchir Gondwana Bbasin, Orissa. The characteristic heavy minerals are garnet, zircon, tourmaline, rutile, biotite, chlorite, pyroxenes, hornblende, staurolite, sillimanite, apatite, epidote, sphene, spinel and siderite including opaques and leucoxene. These heavy minerals are divisible into four groups on the basis of principal component analysis and suggest derivation of Barakar sediments from pegmatite, acid and basic igneous as well as low- and high-rank metamorphic rocks lying to the south of the Talchir Gondwana Basin. Though the heavy mineral suites of all the sandstone samples are by and large similar, differences have been noticed in the frequencies of many heavy minerals in vertical succession. Cyclic nature and vertical fluctuation of heavy mineral frequencies can be ascribed to variation of the relief of the source area, sudden release of some of the minerals in the source region and/or existence of favourable geochemical condition to escape partial dissolution.     

Geology and geochemistry of the Bingdaban ophiolitic mélange in the boundary fault zone on the northern Central Tianshan Belt,and its tectonic implications

The properties and tectonic significance of the fault bound zone on the northern margin of the Central Tianshan belt are key issues to understand the tectonic framework and evolutionary history of the Tianshan Orogenic Belt. Based on the geological and geochemical studies in the Tianshan orogenic belt, it is suggested that the ophiolitic slices found in the Bingdaban area represent the remaining oceanic crust of the Early Paleozoic ocean between the Hazakstan and Zhungaer blocks. Mainly composed of basalts, gabbros and diabases, the ophiolites were overthrust onto the boundary fault between the Northern Tianshan and Central Tianshan belts. The major element geochemistry is characterized by high TiO₂ (1.50%–2.25%) and MgO (6.64%–9.35%), low K₂O (0.06%–0.41%) and P₂O₅ (0.1%–0.2%), and Na₂O>K₂O as well. Low ΣREE and depletion in LREE indicate that the original magma was derived from a depleted mantle source. Compared with a primitive mantle, the geochemistry of the basalts from the Bingdaban area is featureded by depletion in Th, U, Nb, La, Ce and Pr, and unfractionated in HFS elements. The ratios of Zr/Nb, Nb/La, Hf/Ta, Th/Yb and Hf/Th are similar to those of the typical N-MORB. It can be interpreted that the basalts in the Bingdaban area were derived from a depleted mantle source, and formed in a matured mid-oceanic ridge setting during the matured evolutionary stage of the Northern Tianshan ocean. In comparison with the basalts, the diabases from the Bingdaban area show higher contents of Al₂O₃, ΣREE and HFS elements as well as unfractionated incompatible elements except Cs, Rb and Ba, and about 10 times the values of the primitive mantle. Thus, the diabases are thought to be derived from a primitive mantle and similar to the typical E-MORB. The diabases also have slight Nb depletion accompanying no apparent Th enrichment compared with N-MORB. From studies of the regional geology and all above evidence, it can be suggested that the diabases from the Bingdaban area were formed in the mid-oceanic ridge of the Northern Tianshan ocean during the initial spreading stage. Supported by the Major State Research Program of PRC (Grant No. 2001CB409801), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40472115 and 40234041) and the State Research Program of China Geological Survey (Grant No. 2001130000-22)     

Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC

Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers. However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that “the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented.” Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments.     

Effects of degree of saturation on shallow landslides triggered by rainfall

The empirical rainfall threshold concept and the physical-based model are two commonly used approaches for the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. To investigate in detail the rainfall-triggered shallow landslides, many physical-based models coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the rainfall infiltration modeling in variably saturated soil were developed. However, in those physical-based shallow landslide models, the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength were assumed constant rather than depending on the degree of saturation. In this study, the effects of the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength as function of degree of saturation on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are examined. Several designed scenarios and a real case scenario are used to conduct the examinations. The results show that not only the occurrence of shallow landslides but also the failure depth and the time to failure could be misassessed if the influences of degree of saturation on the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength are neglected.